Hello everyone, I'm your old friend, Cody, a special market analyst for Odaily. Before we begin today's Bitcoin market analysis, I'd like to say:
Tomorrow is the first day of the Lunar New Year. I'd like to take this opportunity to wish all our readers a happy and prosperous New Year in advance.
The past year has seen constant market fluctuations, with periods of smooth sailing and tests of repeated volatility. Regardless of your investment results this year, I hope that in the new year, all readers can maintain a stable mindset, clear rhythm, and controlled risks.
Cody also sends his most sincere wishes:
Wishing you all immediate success, immediate blessings, ever-green portfolios, and peace for your families in the new year.
Holidays are brief, but the market never stops.
Returning to the market itself, during this special time window of the Spring Festival, some noteworthy changes are emerging in Bitcoin's price structure, capital behavior, and market sentiment that deserve close attention.
Trading Weekly Report Core Summary:
• Updated Trend Structure: Analysis of the internal C-2 wave movement within Bitcoin's declining C wave, and interpretation of the future C-3 wave decline structure after the rebound ends. (Details in Figure 1)
• Strategy Execution (Short-term) Results Verification: Last week's trading strictly followed the established short-term strategy, completing two short-term operations (1x leverage), successfully achieving a cumulative return of approximately 4.01%. (Details in Table 1)
• Strategy Execution (Medium-term) Results Verification: Last week followed the established medium-term strategy, continuing to hold the short position established at $89,000 (1x leverage). As of last week's close, the profit was approximately 22.71%, with a maximum profit during the period of about 32.58%.
• Core View (Short-term) Verification: Last week, Bitcoin found support near $65,000 and transitioned into a volatile rebound. Multiple technical signals collectively indicated that this level could be the low point of the C-1 wave. The current price action aligns with the previous expectation of an oversold rebound in the C-2 wave, with the market structure gradually transitioning into a repair phase.
The following will provide a detailed review of the market forecast, strategy execution, and specific trading process.
I. Detailed Explanation of Bitcoin's C Wave Internal Three-Stage Correction Structure
Bitcoin Daily K-Line Chart
Figure 1
In the weekly review on February 8th, I clearly pointed out that Bitcoin's correction since the high on October 6, 2025, follows the classic A-B-C three-wave structure, and I projected several possible internal movement structures for the subsequent C wave. Currently, given that both the A and B waves internally show clear three-subwave structures, according to the principles of alternation and consistency in Elliott Wave Theory, the probability is highest that the C wave will also complete its correction internally with a three-stage structure (i.e., C-1, C-2, C-3).
Below, we will provide a detailed analysis of the possible three-stage correction structure within the C wave:
1. C Wave Main Decline Segment Overview
• Time and Magnitude: The C wave began on January 14, 2026, and has run for about 32 days as of the time of analysis, with a maximum decline of 38.7%. This conforms to the characteristic of the C wave as the "main declining wave," usually having the largest magnitude and fierce movements.
2. C-1 Wave: Segment 6–7 in the chart, the first driving decline (Completed)
• This decline lasted from January 14th to February 6th, spanning 23 days. The target was achieved, driving the price down to near $60,000, forming the first "leg" of the C wave.
3. C-2 Wave: Segment 7–8 in the chart (dashed part), the rebound correction segment (Ongoing)
• Current Stage: The rebound starting from the low on February 6th can currently be defined as the C-2 wave.
• Technical Pattern Confirmation: On the daily chart, the K-line combination formed from February 5th to 8th constitutes a "reversal bottom candlestick pattern", initially hinting at waning downward momentum. Subsequently, the K-lines from February 11th to 13th further formed a "confirmed bottom candlestick pattern", enhancing the validity of February 6th as a short-term bottom. Currently, the price is oscillating upward along the short-term rising trendline connecting the lows of February 6th and 12th. If the market's trajectory changes later, I will share updates with everyone.
• Key Resistance Zone: Based on historical price action, the primary pressure zone for the C-2 rebound is near $74,500. This area is not only the lower edge of the previous震荡中枢 (consolidation center) but also resonates with technical key points like the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the A wave decline. A more significant pressure zone is located near $79,500. This area is the dense trading zone (震荡中枢) formed during the previous C-1 decline and is expected to pose strong resistance.
4. C-3 Wave: Segment 8–9 in the chart (dashed part), the final decline segment (May occur in the future)
• Technical Pattern Confirmation: On the daily chart, a future effective break below the short-term rising trendline connecting the February 6th and 12th lows by the coin price might be a key condition for judging the formation of the C-3 wave.
• This correction segment will need to break below the February 6th low (approx. $60,000) to achieve wave pattern completeness. The timing and extent of the final decline will be determined by the strength and height of the C-2 wave rebound.
5. Core View Summary:
The market is currently in the expected C-2 wave rebound stage. The strength and height of this rebound, particularly whether it effectively breaks through the core resistance band of $74,500~$79,500, will be a key observation window for judging the subsequent force and target of the C-3 wave decline. Traders should closely monitor the market reaction near the aforementioned price levels.
II. Review of Last Week's Bitcoin Operation Strategy and Key Levels: (02.09~02.15)
1. Short-term Operation Strategy Review: As shown in (Figure 2)
We strictly followed the trading signals issued by our self-constructed spread trading model and momentum quantitative model, combined with market trend forecasts, to complete two short-term operations, achieving a cumulative profit of 4.01%.
Figure 2
• First Trade (Profit 2.12%):
• Entry: The coin price encountered resistance near the $72,500 pressure line during its rebound. Simultaneously, the Spread Quantitative Model triggered a top warning signal (Green Dot), and the Momentum Quantitative Model issued a "bullish to bearish" signal. Therefore, a 30% short position was established at $70,417.
• Risk Control: Initial stop-loss for the short position was set at $74,500.
• Exit: When the price fell to near $68,000, the K-line combination showed bottoming signals,叠加 resonance bottom signals from both models. We closed all positions at $68,924.
• Second Trade (Profit 1.89%):
• Entry: The coin price showed resistance signals near the short-term descending trendline, and the momentum line of the Momentum Quantitative Model formed another "death cross" turning bearish below the zero axis. A 30% short position was established at $68,290.
• Risk Control: Initial stop-loss for the short position was set at $70,000.
• Exit: Upon encountering resistance near $66,500,叠加 resonance bottom signals from both models, all positions were closed at $67,000.
Bitcoin 30-minute K-Line Chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)
2. Medium-term Operation Strategy Review:
Medium-term Strategy: Continued holding the 60% short position established near $89,000 as planned. As of last week's close, the profit was 22.71%.
3. Core Level Review:
Resistance levels watched the $72,000~$74,500 area;
Support levels watched the $60,000~$62,500 area.
III. Analysis of Current Bitcoin Market Technical Indicators: Comprehensive Judgment Based on Multiple Models and Dimensions
Combining market movements, I conducted an in-depth analysis of multiple technical indicators for Bitcoin from perspectives such as multiple models and multiple dimensions, based on my self-constructed trading system.
1. As shown in (Figure 3), analysis from the weekly chart:
Bitcoin Weekly K-Line Chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Sentiment Quantitative Model)
Figure 3
• Momentum Quantitative Model: Technical indicators show the momentum line declining synchronously. The negative energy bars are still expanding, but the expansion force is weakening, with no divergence signal appearing.
Momentum Quantitative Model indicates: High probability of coin price decline
• Sentiment Quantitative Model: Blue sentiment line value 34, intensity zero; Yellow sentiment line value 10, intensity zero; peak value is 0.
Sentiment Quantitative Model indicates: Neutral coin price bottom support index
• Digital Monitoring Model: Bottom digital monitoring signal has not appeared.
Digital Monitoring Model indicates: Digital bottom signal not appeared; Weekly K-line closed as a small bearish candle with upper and lower shadows, down about 2.15%.
The above data suggests: Bitcoin weekly trend is bearish, with narrowing declines. Currently, it is in a下跌中继形态 (falling continuation pattern).
2. As shown in (Figure 4), analysis from the daily chart:
Bitcoin Daily K-Line Chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Sentiment Quantitative Model)
Figure 4
• Momentum Quantitative Model: Last week's overall行情 (market performance) showed a "first suppress then rise" pattern. Post-session on Sunday, the momentum line formed its first "golden cross" below the zero axis, while the volume bars "turned from negative to positive".
Momentum Quantitative Model indicates: Bullish momentum is beginning to accumulate; short-term trend is expected to gradually strengthen.
• Sentiment Quantitative Model: After the sentiment model triggered a bottom warning signal (Red Dot), the two sentiment lines began to拐头向上 (turn upward). Post-session last Sunday, the sentiment lines left the oversold area and turned to a slow ascent.
Sentiment Quantitative Model indicates: The timeliness of the bottom warning signal has been verified by the market. Sentiment lines are slowly turning upward, indicating repaired oversold market sentiment.
The above data提示 (suggests): The daily level bearish trend has not changed. The current movement is of an oversold rebound nature. A minor rebound can currently be observed; please control the size of short-term long positions.
IV. This Week's Market Forecast: (02.16~02.22)
1. This Week's Core View: The C-2 wave rebound行情 (market) has most likely formed. Pay attention to the performance of the bull-bear struggle when the coin price rebounds to the core pressure zone.
• For investors who participated in this short-term rebound, the strategy should be to "reduce positions at highs, lock in profits";
• For investors trapped in positions earlier, they should resolutely execute "reduce positions at highs, trade滚动操作 (rolling operations), control risks".
2. Core Resistance Levels:
• First Resistance Area: $72,000-$74,500 area (near last April's low)
• Second Resistance Area: $79,500-$80,600 area (near the B wave starting point)
3. Core Support Levels:
• First Support Level: Near $65,000 (low point of the previous K-line bottom candlestick pattern)
• Second Support Level: $60,000-$62,500 area (near the February 6th low)
• Third Support Level: Near $57,400 (near the 210-week moving average)
V. This Week's Operation Strategy (Excluding Impact of Sudden News): (02.16~02.22)
1. Medium-term Strategy: Maintain 60% short position. If the rebound effectively breaks through $74,500, reduce the position to 40%.
2. Short-term Strategy: Use 30% of capital, set stop-loss points, and look for "spread" opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Use 30/60 minutes as the operation cycle).
3. Since the medium-term market direction is bearish, short-term operations should follow the principle of "go with the trend, go short at highs". To dynamically respond to the market's complex evolution and combine signals from the self-built trading model, we have formulated A/B two sets of short-term operation plans:
• Plan A: If the coin price encounters resistance in the $72,500~$74,500 area during its rebound:
• Entry: When the rebound encounters resistance in this area and triggers a signal combined with the model's top signal, a 15% short position can be established.
• Risk Control: Initial stop-loss for the short position is set 1.5% above the entry price (i.e., 1.015 * entry price).
• Exit: When the price falls near important support levels combined with model signals, gradually close positions to take profits.
• Plan B: If the coin price encounters resistance in the $79,500~$80,600 area during its rebound:
• Entry: When the rebound encounters resistance in this area combined with the model's top signal, a 30% short position can be established.
• Risk Control: Initial stop-loss for the short position is set 1.5% above the entry price (i.e., 1.015 * entry price).
• Exit: When the price falls to support levels combined with model signals, gradually close positions to take profits.
VI. Special Notes:
1. When opening a position: Immediately set the initial stop-loss level.
2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost price (breakeven point) to ensure capital safety.
3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the position of 1% profit.
4. Continuous Tracking: Thereafter, for every additional 1% profit the coin price makes, move the stop-loss up by 1%同步移动 (synchronously), dynamically protecting and locking in profits.
Financial markets change rapidly. All market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustment. All views, analytical models, and operational strategies involved in this article are derived from personal technical analysis, intended solely for personal trading log purposes, and do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. The market involves risks, investment requires caution. Please do not make decisions based solely on this.
