Is it ‘over for Solana’? 97% network activity crash sparks fresh debate

AmbcryptoPublished on 2025-12-22Last updated on 2026-04-26

Abstract

Solana’s key network activity driver, memecoins, has cratered by over 90% and dragged the price with it.

Solana’s network activity has dropped by 97% in Q4 2025, and SOL’s price crash followed too.

From a peak of over 30 million active traders in late 2024, the network’s traction has dropped to less than 1 million monthly traders in 2025.

One analyst wondered whether it was “over for Solana” amid muted activity.

Although the contraction in trading volumes in late 2025 was a broader market trend, with Bitcoin price falling by over 30%, Solana’s [SOL] case was a little more nuanced.

Solana memecoins: A risk or test bed?

Solana and Hyperliquid have been key success stories this cycle. SOL, in particular, rallied from $8 to nearly $300, over 35x growth from 2022 cycle lows.

While the chain steadied and minimized network outages, memecoins remained a key revenue driver and traffic.

During the 2025 market rout, memecoins were among the first to be hit. But Solana supporters, like Marty Party, always view memecoins as a ‘test’ for other ‘real-world’ applications.

“Memecoin gamblers left after a successful liveness test, they will be replaced by equity traders and 50m stablecoin users – catch up.”

Even so, the near-term risk of memecoin activity became apparent. SOL’s price has declined from nearly $300 to the yearly $120 support — A 58% price decline during the memecoin lull.

That being said, the chain has garnered some institutional interest, such as Visa for stablecoin settlements. However, the network resilience could be possible if network activity dominance shifts away from gambling.

Solana vs. Ethereum

Perhaps, this could close the revenue gap with Ethereum, which leads in institutional adoption. So far, in 2025, Ethereum has made over $1.4 billion in annual revenue while Solana raked in $5022 million — A 3x difference.

In 2024, however, Solana made $2.5 billion in revenue, suggesting a 5x decline this year. Anatoly Yakovenko called it a “crazy year,” adding that,

“It’s been a crazy year. Can open permissionless protocols actually grow and maintain revenues is still an open question.”

In terms of investor returns, SOL has underperformed ETH by 56% this year, a stark contrast to the over 24% relative gains made against ETH last year.

In fact, Fundstrat projected the SOL price could fall to $50-$75 range in H1 2026.

For analyst Ted Pillows, however, there was a higher chance of a 15% surge to $134-$140, citing a massive $1 billion upside liquidity of leveraged shorts.

Final Thoughts

  • Solana’s key network activity driver, memecoins, has cratered by over 90% and dragged the price with it.
  • Ethereum outperformed Solana in annual revenue threefold, contrary to the 2024 performance.

Related Questions

QWhat was the percentage drop in Solana's network activity in Q4 2025 and what was the corresponding price impact?

ASolana's network activity dropped by 97% in Q4 2025, and this was followed by a significant price crash for SOL.

QAccording to the article, what was a key revenue driver and source of traffic for the Solana network?

AMemecoins remained a key revenue driver and source of traffic for the Solana network.

QHow did Solana's revenue in 2025 compare to Ethereum's, and what was the difference?

AIn 2025, Ethereum made over $1.4 billion in annual revenue while Solana raked in $5022 million, a 3x difference in Ethereum's favor.

QWhat was the projected price range for SOL in H1 2026 according to Fundstrat?

AFundstrat projected the SOL price could fall to the $50-$75 range in H1 2026.

QWhat contrasting performance did SOL have against ETH in terms of investor returns between this year and last year?

AThis year, SOL has underperformed ETH by 56%, which is a stark contrast to the over 24% relative gains it made against ETH last year.

Related Reads

How Many Tokens Away Is Yang Zhilin from the 'Moon Chasing the Light'?

The article explores the intense competition between two leading Chinese AI companies, DeepSeek and Kimi (Moon Dark Side), and the mounting pressure on Yang Zhilin, the founder of Kimi. While DeepSeek re-emerged after 15 months of silence with its powerful V4 model—boasting 1.6 trillion parameters and low-cost, long-context capabilities—Kimi has been focusing on long-context processing and multi-agent systems with its K2.6 model. Yang faces a threefold challenge: technological rivalry, commercialization pressure, and investor expectations. Despite Kimi’s high valuation (reaching $18 billion), its revenue heavily relies on a single product with low paid conversion rates, while DeepSeek’s strategic silence and open-source influence have strengthened its market position and valuation prospects, now targeting over $20 billion. Both companies reflect broader trends in China’s AI ecosystem: Kimi aims for global influence through open-source contributions and agent-based advancements, while DeepSeek prioritizes foundational innovation and hardware independence, notably shifting to Huawei’s chips. Their competition is seen as vital for China’s AI progress, with the gap between top Chinese and U.S. models narrowing to just 2.7% on the Elo rating scale. Ultimately, the article argues that this rivalry, though anxiety-inducing for leaders like Zhilin, is essential for driving innovation and solidifying China’s role in the global AI landscape.

marsbit2h ago

How Many Tokens Away Is Yang Zhilin from the 'Moon Chasing the Light'?

marsbit2h ago

TechFlow Intelligence Bureau: ChatGPT Helps Amateur Mathematician Crack 60-Year-Old Problem, CFTC Sues New York Regulator Over Coinbase and Gemini

An amateur mathematician, with the assistance of ChatGPT, has solved a combinatorial mathematics puzzle originally proposed by Hungarian mathematician Paul Erdős in the 1960s. This marks another milestone in AI-aided mathematical research, demonstrating the evolving capabilities of large language models in formal reasoning. In other AI developments, OpenAI introduced a new privacy filter tool for enterprise API usage, automatically screening sensitive data. Meanwhile, the Qwen3.6-27B model achieved 100 tokens per second on a single RTX 5090 GPU using quantization, significantly lowering the cost barrier for local AI deployment. In crypto and Web3, the U.S. CFTC sued New York’s financial regulator, challenging its oversight of Coinbase and Gemini—a first-of-its-kind federal-state regulatory clash. Following a vulnerability, KelpDAO and major DeFi protocols established a recovery fund. Tether froze $344 million in assets linked to Iran’s central bank upon U.S. Treasury request, highlighting the centralized control risks in stablecoins. Separately, Litecoin underwent a 3-hour chain reorganization to undo a privacy-layer exploit. In the U.S., former President Trump invoked the Defense Production Act to address power grid bottlenecks affecting AI data centers and dismissed the entire National Science Board, raising concerns over research independence. A retail trader gained 250% on a $600k Intel options bet amid AI-related speculation. Xiaomi announced its first performance electric vehicle, targeting rivals like Tesla. Meanwhile, iPhone users reported devices automatically reinstalling a hidden app daily, suspected to be MDM-related. A Chinese securities report noted that A-share institutional crowding has reached its second-longest streak since 2007, signaling high valuations and potential style rotation. The day’s developments reflect a dual narrative: AI is enabling unprecedented individual breakthroughs, while centralized power structures—whether governmental or corporate—are becoming more assertive, underscoring that decentralization is as much a political-economic challenge as a technical one.

marsbit3h ago

TechFlow Intelligence Bureau: ChatGPT Helps Amateur Mathematician Crack 60-Year-Old Problem, CFTC Sues New York Regulator Over Coinbase and Gemini

marsbit3h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of SOL (SOL) are presented below.

活动图片