Is altseason finally brewing? Only if THESE 2 indicators flip first

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-02-03Last updated on 2026-02-03

Abstract

Hopes for an altcoin season in 2026 are building as investors look beyond Bitcoin, but conditions for a full altcoin rally are not yet firmly in place. Two key indicators need to flip first. The latest ISM Manufacturing PMI reached 52.6%, its highest in nearly 40 months, pushing U.S. manufacturing into expansion territory. Historically, altcoin rallies followed periods when ISM moved decisively higher, particularly above the 55 mark, as seen in 2017 and 2021. While current levels are below that threshold, a potential turning point may be emerging. However, Ethereum (ETH), a known harbinger of altseason, has closed in the red for 12 of the last 15 months, showing a prolonged stretch of weakness with uneven gains and frequent drawdowns. Sustained altseasons have almost always followed a clear and consistent uptrend in Ethereum. Furthermore, the Altcoin Season Index from CoinGlass was at 39, below the level that usually indicates a rotation away from Bitcoin. At the same time, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) remained high near 60% on the daily chart. Altseasons typically begin with a clear decline in BTC dominance as investors move down the risk curve, a shift that has not yet occurred. Overall, while altseason expectations are growing, they may be premature. Early macro signals are improving, but the market lacks a trigger for a true altseason, and capital remains firmly in Bitcoin.

Hopes for an altcoin season in 2026 are starting to build, with investors beginning to look beyond Bitcoin.

That said, it may still be too soon to call it. While expectations are rising, the conditions needed for a full altcoin rally are not firmly in place yet.

Altseason within sight?

The latest ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.6%, its highest reading in nearly 40 months. This pushed U.S. manufacturing back into expansion territory.

Source: X

Past altcoin rallies have tended to follow periods when ISM moved decisively higher. In both 2017 and 2021, altseasons took shape only after PMI readings climbed above the 55 mark.

While current levels remain below that threshold, it looks like a potential turning point may be in order.

But that’s not all…

Ethereum [ETH] – famously known as a harbinger of altseason – has closed in the red in 12 of the last 15 months with a prolonged stretch of weakness.

Source: X

The monthly returns chart makes this slowdown obvious, showing uneven gains with frequent drawdowns across 2024 and into early 2026. Even during brief comebacks, follow-through has been limited.

This is important. Sustained altseasons have almost always followed a clear and consistent uptrend in Ethereum.

Altcoin signs look weak

Source: CoinGlass

CoinGlass’ Altcoin Season Index was at 39 at the time of writing, below the level that usually indicates a rotation away from Bitcoin [BTC]. Despite growing macro optimism, capital has yet to flow into altcoins on a larger scale.

Source: TradingView

At the same time, BTC.D was close to 60% on the daily chart.

Altseasons usually started with a clear decline in BTC dominance, with investors moving down the risk curve. For now, that shift has not yet happened.

Overall, while altseason expectations are beginning to fire up, they may very well be premature. Only time will tell.

Final Thoughts

Early macro signals are improving, but the market lacks a trigger for a true altseason.
With altcoin season index at 39, capital is still firmly in Bitcoin.

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