Written by: Forbes
Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
2026 has been quite a tough year for Bitcoin, as it failed to hold the all-time high of over $126,000 it briefly surpassed last year. Despite multiple positive signals released by U.S. President Trump, Bitcoin's price has still cumulatively fallen by more than 50% since October of last year. However, several analysts have pointed out that a potential policy shift by the Federal Reserve might be brewing a turnaround.
Just as BlackRock's CEO recently issued a 12-month Bitcoin price prediction, Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas offered a highly valuable comparison: the Bitcoin ETF army is likely to make Bitcoin's price trajectory "mirror" gold's "triumphs and pains" over the past 20-plus years.
Balchunas posted on platform X, noting: "The 22-year history of gold ETFs is perhaps the closest roadmap for Bitcoin ETF investors." Since the launch of gold ETFs in 2004, the price of gold has soared, and its total market capitalization is now close to $28 trillion. This figure alone is enough to spark market imagination—if Bitcoin can replicate even part of gold's success path, its potential upside would be extremely substantial.
He further analyzed: "Both gold and Bitcoin are packaged products of non-yielding stores of value. They generate no cash flow, and the core driver of their prices relies entirely on investor sentiment, not the profitability of traditional stocks, the coupon payments of bonds, or government credit backing."
Over the past 20-plus years, gold ETFs have experienced dramatic ups and downs: they briefly became the world's largest ETF in 2011, then entered an eight-year slump, struggling to recover. Balchunas believes that Bitcoin ETFs are playing out a similar script—"staggering gains, painful pullbacks, and recovery phases that require immense patience to endure." Notably, each cycle of gold ETFs has lifted the historical highs, which is particularly encouraging for Bitcoin's long-term holders.
Looking back at the development of Bitcoin ETFs: In early 2024, after over a decade of persistent advocacy from the crypto community, spot Bitcoin ETFs were finally approved and entered the market. Wall Street institutions flocked in, and several leading funds quickly became some of the fastest-growing ETFs in history. This not only marked Bitcoin's transition from a fringe asset to the mainstream financial system but also laid the groundwork for subsequent price volatility.
However, volatility has always been a constant companion. Earlier this month, analysts from the Bitfinex exchange warned: if there were "shock" large-scale outflows from ETFs, it could directly interrupt the current rebound momentum. While Bitcoin has recovered nearly 10% from the low below $57,000 in early July, the market remains highly vigilant.
As the absolute leader in the Bitcoin ETF space, BlackRock's IBIT fund has sold nearly 100,000 Bitcoins in recent months to address redemption pressures and still holds over 733,000 Bitcoins, with assets under management approaching $50 billion. This also reflects the nature of institutional fund flows—both inflows and outflows can trigger significant market reactions.
Despite the substantial price correction this year, many long-term Bitcoin bulls remain highly confident. They generally believe that Bitcoin could usher in long-term prosperity comparable to that of gold. Balchunas himself emphasized the "spiritual parallel" between the two: "Gold exploded in popularity rapidly, surpassing the world's largest ETF, SPY, in size one day in 2011, then fell out of favor for years. IBIT similarly hit a peak of $100 billion in assets in a single day—that was precisely the top in October 2025. Both have a nearly fixed supply, and when demand surges, it easily triggers price explosions. But the problem is that demand tends to be fickle, coming in waves rather than steadily and continuously."
From the perspective of seasoned crypto industry observers, this comparison is highly relevant. Gold has achieved long-term value anchoring through scarcity, safe-haven attributes, and global recognition; Bitcoin, under its halving mechanism, decentralized network, and increasingly strong institutional adoption, exhibits similar traits as "digital gold." The emergence of ETFs has further lowered the barrier to entry, allowing traditional investors to gain exposure without directly holding Bitcoin, undoubtedly amplifying demand elasticity.
Currently, the market remains optimistic about the resilience of ETF demand. Simon-Peter Massabni, Head of Business Development at XS.com, pointed out: "Institutional demand remains one of Bitcoin's most solid pillars. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to record stable fund inflows, while an increasing number of companies are incorporating digital assets into their portfolio diversification strategies. This institutional interest effectively cushions selling pressure during recent market corrections."
Looking ahead, Bitcoin's trajectory will be deeply influenced by the macro environment, regulatory developments, and institutional behavior. Gold's market cap has reached nearly $28 trillion. If Bitcoin can gradually occupy a similar "store of value" status, even reaching a fraction of gold's market capitalization, it would offer extremely substantial appreciation potential. Of course, the process will inevitably be accompanied by intense volatility—this is the very essence of the crypto market's "high risk, high reward" nature.
For ordinary investors, the key is to remain rational, diversify risks, and focus on long-term trends rather than short-term noise. Bitcoin's story is far from over. As more traditional capital enters and infrastructure improves, this "price explosion" might just be beginning. From Gold to Bitcoin: Fixed Supply + Institutional Frenzy, Could It Replay an 'Explosive' Price Surge?
