Ethereum: Why Fundstrat sees $1.7K as a possible ETH bottom

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-02-21Last updated on 2026-02-21

Abstract

Fundstrat's head of digital asset strategy, Sean Farrell, suggests Ethereum may be nearing or has already hit its market cycle bottom, projecting potential support levels between $1,360 and $1,770 based on historical realized price data. The realized price—average on-chain holder cost—has historically acted as a key support zone. If ETH follows the 2022 pattern, it could bottom at $1,367, while the 2025 scenario suggests a floor near $1,770. Although ETH recently dipped to $1,747, Farrell anticipates a potential 80% rally in the next 12 months if it holds above $1.3K. However, sustained recovery depends on renewed buying pressure from U.S. investors, as current negative Coinbase Premium Index readings indicate a lack of strong demand. Without U.S. ETF inflows or positive shift in sentiment, ETH may struggle to reclaim $2,000 in the near term.

Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, Sean Farrell, believes that Ethereum may be close to the market bottom if it has not already reached it.

Citing historical data linked to realized price and past cycle lows, Farrel projected that the largest altcoin may find relief around $1,360-$1,770.

Realized price is the average cost basis for on-chain holders and typically serves as a key support zone. In the past, ETH’s massive drawdowns eased right after breaking this support zone.

In 2022, ETH formed a bottom after dropping 39% below the realized price. Conversely, in Q1 2025, the altcoin rebounded after dropping 21% below its on-chain support level.

According to Farrel, if the trend repeats the 2022 pattern, it would imply a potential bottom at $1,367. On the other hand, if the 2025 pattern plays out, then the altcoin may finally bounce at $1,770.

Short-term headwinds

In December, the analyst correctly predicted that BTC would drop to $60K and ETH to $1800 earlier in 2026, noting that the market may recover in the second half of 2026.

That said, another broader market drawdown dragged ETH to a low of $1,747 on Binance. If the 2025 scenario plays out, the altcoin could already have bottomed out. But if it follows the 2022 pathway, then another 30% decline to $1.36K from the current $1.94K level could still be on the cards.

But Farrell expects an 80% rally in the next 12 months if ETH eases above $1.3K.

In the meantime, however, the overall selling from U.S. investors (including ETFs) seen in early February has eased significantly. However, they haven’t flipped to net buying yet, as indicated by the negative reading on the Coinbase Premium Index.

Historically, a strong and sustainable ETH recovery has always been supported by U.S. buying pressure. So, unless it turns positive, the ETH price may struggle to reclaim $2000 for a while.

Overall, ETH may have reached its potential level of reversal to the upside, according to Fundstrat’s Farrell, but there was still no strong demand. Should renewed U.S. spot ETH ETF inflows follow suit, maybe the altcoin may find relief above $1,300 or $1,700.

Final Summary

  • Ethereum may be close to a market cycle bottom above $1.3K if the current trend follows the 2022 pattern.
  • ETH may struggle to hold $2000 in the near term unless strong buying pressure resumes.

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Related Questions

QAccording to Fundstrat's Sean Farrell, what are the two potential bottom price levels for Ethereum and which historical patterns do they correspond to?

AAccording to Sean Farrell, if the trend follows the 2022 pattern, the potential bottom is at $1,367. If it follows the 2025 pattern, the bottom is at $1,770.

QWhat is the 'realized price' and what role does it play in identifying potential market bottoms for Ethereum?

AThe realized price is the average cost basis for on-chain holders and typically serves as a key support zone. Historically, ETH's massive drawdowns have eased right after breaking below this support level.

QWhat key factor does the article identify as necessary for a strong and sustainable ETH price recovery?

AThe article states that a strong and sustainable ETH recovery has historically always been supported by U.S. buying pressure, as indicated by a positive reading on the Coinbase Premium Index.

QWhat short-term price level does the analyst suggest Ethereum may struggle to reclaim without renewed demand?

AThe analyst suggests that unless U.S. buying pressure returns, the ETH price may struggle to reclaim $2000 for a while.

QWhat significant rally does Farrell predict if Ethereum finds a bottom above $1,300?

AFarrell expects an 80% rally in the next 12 months if ETH finds a bottom and eases above $1,300.

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