Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, Sean Farrell, believes that Ethereum may be close to the market bottom if it has not already reached it.
Citing historical data linked to realized price and past cycle lows, Farrel projected that the largest altcoin may find relief around $1,360-$1,770.
Realized price is the average cost basis for on-chain holders and typically serves as a key support zone. In the past, ETH’s massive drawdowns eased right after breaking this support zone.
In 2022, ETH formed a bottom after dropping 39% below the realized price. Conversely, in Q1 2025, the altcoin rebounded after dropping 21% below its on-chain support level.
According to Farrel, if the trend repeats the 2022 pattern, it would imply a potential bottom at $1,367. On the other hand, if the 2025 pattern plays out, then the altcoin may finally bounce at $1,770.
Short-term headwinds
In December, the analyst correctly predicted that BTC would drop to $60K and ETH to $1800 earlier in 2026, noting that the market may recover in the second half of 2026.
That said, another broader market drawdown dragged ETH to a low of $1,747 on Binance. If the 2025 scenario plays out, the altcoin could already have bottomed out. But if it follows the 2022 pathway, then another 30% decline to $1.36K from the current $1.94K level could still be on the cards.
But Farrell expects an 80% rally in the next 12 months if ETH eases above $1.3K.
In the meantime, however, the overall selling from U.S. investors (including ETFs) seen in early February has eased significantly. However, they haven’t flipped to net buying yet, as indicated by the negative reading on the Coinbase Premium Index.
Historically, a strong and sustainable ETH recovery has always been supported by U.S. buying pressure. So, unless it turns positive, the ETH price may struggle to reclaim $2000 for a while.
Overall, ETH may have reached its potential level of reversal to the upside, according to Fundstrat’s Farrell, but there was still no strong demand. Should renewed U.S. spot ETH ETF inflows follow suit, maybe the altcoin may find relief above $1,300 or $1,700.
Final Summary
- Ethereum may be close to a market cycle bottom above $1.3K if the current trend follows the 2022 pattern.
- ETH may struggle to hold $2000 in the near term unless strong buying pressure resumes.
