Ethereum's price action has flattened this week, encountering significant resistance in the supply zone between $3,650 and $3,350. The token is currently consolidating near $3,200. This resistance level roughly coincides with the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), further reinforcing the overhead pressure in this area. Notably, just as this is happening, spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) flows are beginning to show initial signs of recovery.
Key Points:
- Since November 21st, the Assets Under Management (AUM) for spot Ethereum ETFs have increased from $16.8 billion to $21.5 billion, a gain of 28%.
- Net active buying volume is showing an upward trend, indicating that the previously strong selling pressure is weakening, while buying power is gradually returning.
Ethereum Daily Chart. Source: TradingView
ETF Inflows Resume, But Charts Reflect Lingering Investor Caution
According to data from Glassnode, after weeks of consecutive outflows, spot ETH ETFs are finally showing initial "signs of recovery." Since November 21st, ETF net asset values have rebounded by 28%, suggesting potential improvement in market demand before year-end. However, compared to the peak of $32 billion in early October, the magnitude of this rebound remains modest, indicating that institutional confidence has not yet fully recovered.
Spot ETH ETF Net Flow. Source: Glassnode
Data from CryptoQuant further supports this assessment. Although the net flow remains negative (-$138 million), it has improved significantly from the -$500 million seen in October, marking a structural shift. During the correction phase from September to October, the market was dominated by active selling, but this trend is gradually subsiding.
The 30-day moving average of net active buying volume is also showing a pattern of rising lows. A similar structure appeared in early 2025, after which the Ethereum price achieved a nearly 3-fold increase and reached a new all-time high.
If the current trend continues, this positive shift in active buying activity could become a key catalyst driving Ethereum to break out upward again in the coming weeks.
Ethereum On-Chain Flow Data. Source: CryptoQuant
ETH Price Consolidates in Support Zone, Derivatives Market Cools Off
The current Ethereum price is testing the order block density zone between $3,100 and $3,180 on the 4-hour chart, an area that could transform into near-term demand support. Although the ETH price remains within an ascending channel, the upward momentum has noticeably weakened. The market is in a structural decision-making phase regarding its direction.
4-Hour Price Chart. Source: TradingView
From a bullish perspective, if the price can hold above this demand zone and the channel support, ETH could potentially attack the daily 200-day EMA again. A clear break above $3,450 would invalidate the previously formed resistance and open the path for the price to test the $3,900 resistance level.
From a bearish viewpoint, a break below the lower trendline of the current ascending channel would constitute a bearish signal, potentially leading the price to test the key $3,000 support level.
Data from Hyblock shows the Ethereum derivatives market presents a neutral yet fragile landscape. After the price met resistance, the Total Open Interest (OI) slightly declined. Funding rates are positive but not significantly high, and the buy-sell ratio is also near neutral, indicating that spot investors have not yet formed a consensus bullish expectation.
Ethereum Futures Market Data. Source: Hyblock Capital
Summary: The key to Ethereum's subsequent price action lies in whether the bulls can sustain their defense in the demand support area, thereby catalyzing a virtuous cycle between active buying flows and ETF demand, ultimately translating into sustained upward momentum.
