Crypto altseaon unlikely in 2026 as ‘blue-chip survivors’ to win out: Analyst

cointelegraphPublished on 2025-12-23Last updated on 2025-12-23

Abstract

CoinEx Research analyst Jeff Ko predicts a traditional altcoin season is unlikely in 2026, with liquidity becoming "ruthlessly selective" and flowing only to blue-chip cryptocurrencies with real adoption, rather than lifting all altcoins. He anticipates modest global liquidity tailwinds but notes Bitcoin's correlation to money supply growth has diminished post-ETF. His base case sees Bitcoin reaching $180,000 by 2026. Conversely, veteran analyst Peter Brandt expects another prolonged bear market, projecting the next bull market peak in September 2029, aligning with the four-year cycle theory. This could involve an 80% decline from the peak, potentially sending Bitcoin to $25,000. Bitcoin is currently trading around $88,000, down 30% from its October all-time high, and is experiencing its second-worst fourth quarter historically.

The typical altcoin rally is likely to wane next year, with only “blue chip” cryptocurrencies seeing the lion’s share of liquidity, says CoinEx Research chief analyst Jeff Ko.

“Retail investors expecting a rising tide to lift all boats will be disappointed,” Ko told Cointelegraph. “We predict no traditional altseason; instead, liquidity will be ruthlessly selective, flowing only to blue-chip survivors with real adoption.”

Ko anticipated “modest global liquidity tailwinds in 2026,” tempered by divergent central bank policies, but added that Bitcoin's historical sensitivity to the M2 money supply growth “has softened since the 2024 ETF launches, with correlation diminishing.”

He added that the company’s “base case sees Bitcoin targeting $180,000 by 2026.”

However, not all analysts agree, with veteran analyst Peter Brandt predicting another long, drawn-out bear market.

Bitcoin to next peak in 2029

Brandt, a veteran futures trader, said on Tuesday that in 15 years, Bitcoin has experienced five parabolic advances on a logarithmic scale followed by at least 80% declines, but the “current cycle is not done yet.”

However, when asked about the bottom of this cycle, he “projected the next bull market high to occur in September 2029.”

The prediction would line up perfectly with the four-year cycle theory and the peak coming a year after the halving event, which is due around April 2028. However, an 80% decline as seen in previous cycles could send BTC crashing back to $25,000 before that happens.

Bitcoin’s five parabolic advances. Source: Peter Brandt

Is the four-year cycle dead?

Historically, the fourth quarter of the year has often been one of Bitcoin’s strongest periods. Eight of the past 12 fourth quarters have seen Bitcoin's biggest quarterly gains, and only one of them was a single-digit gain, according to Coinglass.

Related: Bitcoin's apparent demand shrinks, signals new bear market: Analysts

However, Bitcoin is down more than 22% over the current quarter, marking its second-worst fourth quarter in history so far.

Macro investing feed Milk Road said on Monday that “this usually means the market has flushed a lot of excess risk and weak positioning.”

“So for 2026, it doesn’t automatically guarantee upside, but historically, cycles that finish with a heavy reset tend to have better conditions to build strength.”

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $88,000, down 30% from its October all-time high.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s critical level is $82.5K, Ethereum ‘not done yet’: Trade Secrets

Related Questions

QAccording to CoinEx Research analyst Jeff Ko, what is unlikely to happen in 2026 and why?

AA traditional altseason is unlikely in 2026 because liquidity is expected to be 'ruthlessly selective,' flowing only to blue-chip cryptocurrencies with real adoption, rather than lifting all altcoins.

QWhat is Jeff Ko's base case price target for Bitcoin by 2026?

AJeff Ko's base case sees Bitcoin targeting $180,000 by 2026.

QWhat does veteran analyst Peter Brandt predict for the timing of the next Bitcoin bull market peak?

APeter Brandt projected the next bull market high for Bitcoin to occur in September 2029.

QHow does the current fourth quarter (Q4) performance of Bitcoin compare to its historical performance?

ABitcoin is down more than 22% in the current quarter, marking its second-worst fourth quarter in history, whereas historically, Q4 has often been one of Bitcoin's strongest periods.

QWhat is the significance of an 80% decline in previous Bitcoin cycles, according to the article?

AAn 80% decline, as seen in previous cycles, could send Bitcoin's price crashing back to around $25,000 before the next bull market peak.

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