Complete Analysis of Trump's Tariff "Playbook": A Practical Operation Guide

marsbitPublished on 2026-01-19Last updated on 2026-01-19

Abstract

Former President Trump has announced new tariffs targeting multiple European nations, including Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland, starting at 10% on February 1 and escalating to 25% by June 1. These measures are tied explicitly to his strategic objective of acquiring Greenland, which he insists must be a "complete and comprehensive purchase." This follows a recurring pattern in Trump’s trade strategy: using high-stakes tariff threats as a negotiation tool, often announced over weekends when markets are closed to maximize psychological impact. The approach typically triggers an initial wave of market volatility and emotional selling, followed by a rebound as investors anticipate negotiated resolutions before tariffs take effect. The Kobeissi Letter outlines a consistent tactical playbook observed since early 2025: tariff threats are introduced, markets react negatively, buying opportunities emerge mid-week, and eventual deal announcements drive market rallies. While the Greenland demand is notably more ambitious than previous objectives—such as persuading China to drop export controls—the expected market response and negotiation timeline are projected to follow a similar cyclical pattern. Ultimately, the strategy leverages volatility as an opportunity, with disciplined traders capitalizing on predictable fluctuations tied to trade war headlines.

Author: The Kobeissi Letter

Compiled by: Jesse

This is an in-depth analysis from The Kobeissi Letter regarding the Greenland tariff incident and Trump's "tariff strategy".

Is the Trade War Making a Comeback Due to New Tariffs on Greenland?

Just moments ago, President Trump announced new tariffs on the European Union and confirmed his primary strategic objective: the acquisition of Greenland. This includes a new 10% tariff on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland, effective February 1st.

Furthermore, these tariffs will be increased to 25% on June 1st and will absolutely not be canceled until a Greenland deal is reached. According to Trump, this deal must be a "complete and comprehensive purchase" of Greenland.

Before analyzing our precise strategy, it must first be noted: trade wars have become a "cyclical headwind." Tariffs always return when the market least expects it, only to slowly dissipate. This is the product of President Trump's "tariff strategy," which is meticulously designed.

A recent case occurred on October 10th, when President Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China starting November 1st (just 21 days after the announcement). This timing might sound familiar because it is an integral part of the strategy playbook. After the news broke, S&P 500 futures extended their intraday decline to -3.5% before the weekend.

October 10th - Trump threatens 100% tariffs on China

President Trump always begins with punitive and threatening messages, which is part of his negotiation tactics. And, this move works for him. In the October confrontation with China, it ultimately ended with the signing of a new trade agreement and China canceling its rare earth export restrictions, which Trump had said were harming the U.S.

This time, the announcement was made on a Saturday, and market futures won't open until Monday evening (because Monday is a federal holiday). The market reaction might be accompanied by similar "emotional selling," but considering there is time to digest the news, the impact might be less severe.

This is all part of President Trump's "tariff strategy," which we will detail below:

The Tariff Strategy Playbook

In 2025, our investment strategy's returns were almost double that of the S&P 500, largely because we capitalized early on asset price volatility during trade wars. Below is the specific coping strategy we have consistently applied:

A comprehensive step-by-step guide to navigating Trump's trade wars:

Friday: President Trump posts an obscure message hinting at tariffs on a specific country or industry. Markets decline as uncertainty increases. This event started Friday with Trump threatening tariffs on Denmark.
Later that day or shortly after (Saturday in this case): President Trump announces a massive new tariff, usually 25% or higher.
Saturday and Sunday: President Trump repeatedly escalates tariff threats while markets are closed to maximize psychological impact.
Over the weekend: The targeted country(ies) typically respond publicly or signal willingness to negotiate.
Sunday 6 PM ET (Monday evening in this instance): Futures open, and the market reacts initially with an emotional sell-off to the tariff headlines; futures prices drop.
Monday and Tuesday: President Trump continues public pressure, but investors start realizing tariffs are not yet in effect and are weeks away from implementation (e.g., Feb 1st).
Wednesday of the same week: Dip buyers step in and trigger a relief rally, but this move often fades and leads to another decline. This is usually when the "smart money" starts buying.
The following weekend (about a week later): President Trump posts that negotiations are underway and he is working with the target country's leader(s) towards a solution.
Sunday 6 PM ET that weekend: Futures open sharply on optimism, but gains pare back after the Monday cash market open.
After Monday open: Senior administration officials like Treasury Secretary Bessent appear on live TV, reassuring investors and highlighting progress towards a deal.
The next 2-4 weeks: Officials across the Trump administration continuously leak progress on the trade deal.
Eventually: The trade deal is officially announced, and markets hit new all-time highs.
Cycle: Repeat from Step 1.

Of course, this is not a 100% guaranteed roadmap, but based on our experience, almost every trade war flare-up since January 2025 has followed roughly this same path.

Note: This time, President Trump's plan to acquire Greenland is undoubtedly a higher demand than getting China to cut export controls. Therefore, the execution of this strategy might be more prolonged, but it will follow a similar sequence of events.

Timing is Key

President Trump's entire negotiation strategy revolves around timing and pressure. He provides a 2-3 week buffer before tariffs take effect to allow for a deal. Trump's goal is for these tariffs never to actually take effect; he wants the deal. This also explains why these announcements increasingly occur on weekends when markets are closed. He pushes the threat to the brink. This is why they work: if they were actually implemented and sustained, they would have the power to shake markets and change the world.

In the last round of the trade war with China, President Trump announced a new trade deal with China on November 1st—the very day the 100% tariffs were scheduled to take effect.

Ultimately, those who can remain objective and follow the process during trade war volatility are accessing one of the best trading environments ever.

As mentioned, this objective, systematic approach has led to our performance outperforming the market benchmark. As shown in the chart below, our investment strategy's returns have been nearly five times that of the S&P 500 since 2020.

Conclusion

This time, President Trump's plan to acquire Greenland is indeed a higher demand than previous ones. Market turbulence might last longer, but we reiterate the original point: the best traders are profiting from the asset price volatility caused by trade war headlines.

Volatility equals opportunity.

Jensen Huang 'Saves' South Korean Stock Market: Locks In SK Hynix Memory, Chip Shortage to Continue

On June 5th, South Korea's stock market experienced a sharp decline, with major chipmakers like Samsung and SK Hynix dropping nearly 10%. Amidst the turmoil, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's visit to Seoul played a dramatic role in boosting market sentiment. Following a dinner meeting with SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won and SK Hynix CEO Kwak Noh-Jung, Huang confirmed that NVIDIA's new Vera CPU will utilize SK Hynix DRAM. The companies announced a multi-year technical partnership to co-develop next-generation memory for NVIDIA's AI infrastructure, covering products from data centers to personal AI and robotics. This collaboration extends beyond memory supply. SK Hynix is integrating NVIDIA's AI and Omniverse platform into its own semiconductor design and manufacturing processes, including computational lithography and creating digital twins of its fabrication plants for autonomous operation. While strengthening ties with SK Hynix, NVIDIA is diversifying its supply chain for the upcoming HBM4 memory, with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron all certified as suppliers for its Vera Rubin platform. Despite this, Huang warned that the global chip shortage, driven by relentless demand from AI factory construction, is expected to persist for several years across the entire supply chain. His visit underscores NVIDIA's systematic effort to deepen integration with South Korea's broader tech industry.

marsbit8m ago

Jensen Huang 'Saves' South Korean Stock Market: Locks In SK Hynix Memory, Chip Shortage to Continue

marsbit8m ago

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marsbit12m ago

Nasdaq Plunges 4.2% in a Single Day: Does "Black Friday" Burst the U.S. Stock Market Bubble?

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Nasdaq Plunges 4.2% in a Single Day, Did 'Black Friday' Pop the U.S. Stock Bubble?

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Nasdaq Plunges 4.2% in a Single Day, Did 'Black Friday' Pop the U.S. Stock Bubble?

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The First Case on AI Agents: What Was Adjudicated?

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marsbit22m ago

The First Case on AI Agents: What Was Adjudicated?

marsbit22m ago

Fired by Google Over a 14-Page Paper, Over 4,000 Rallied for Her. 6 Years Later: She Almost Predicted the Entire AI Era Back Then.

In late 2020, Google AI researcher Timnit Gebru was effectively dismissed following a conflict over a 14-page, unpublished research paper she co-authored titled "On the Dangers of Stochastic Parrots." The paper, which has since been cited over 14,000 times, raised critical early warnings about the risks of large language models (LLMs). It argued that these models, trained on vast, biased internet data, are essentially "stochastic parrots" that mimic language without true understanding, potentially amplifying societal biases, generating plausible but false information (later termed "AI hallucination"), consuming massive energy, and obscuring their training data contents. Gebru's stance led to a clash with Google management, who requested the paper's withdrawal. Her subsequent internal criticism of the company's diversity efforts and handling of the matter culminated in her termination, which sparked protests from over 4,000 Google employees and researchers. Six years later, the paper's predictions have proven remarkably prescient. Issues like AI hallucination, embedded bias (evident in resume screening and healthcare algorithms), soaring energy consumption from AI data centers, unvetted training data containing harmful content, and the risk of "model collapse" from AI-generated internet content have become central industry challenges. The incident also highlighted concerns about AI development being driven primarily by commercial competition within a handful of powerful tech companies, often at the expense of ethical considerations. After leaving Google, Gebru founded the Distributed AI Research Institute (DAIR) to explore these issues independently. The controversy underscores how her early, critical insights into the fundamental limitations and societal impacts of LLMs anticipated many of the most pressing dilemmas in today's AI era.

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Fired by Google Over a 14-Page Paper, Over 4,000 Rallied for Her. 6 Years Later: She Almost Predicted the Entire AI Era Back Then.

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