Bitcoin volatility rises: Should traders reassess BTC’s path to $100K?

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-01-20Last updated on 2026-01-20

Abstract

Bitcoin experienced a 5.67% decline from its recent high of $97.9K, entering a short-term retracement phase and losing the $94.5K resistance level. Despite this, analysts noted significant profit-taking activity, with 41,800 BTC moved to exchanges in 24 hours. The market shows mixed signals: the Put/Call Ratio of 0.71 and strong institutional ETF flows reflect optimism, while derivatives data indicates a bullish shift in buyer sentiment. However, selling pressure remains, and Bitcoin must defend the $91.1K support level to sustain a potential recovery. The overall outlook suggests cautious optimism amid ongoing volatility.

Bitcoin [BTC] fell 5.67% from its local high of $97.9k on the 14th of January. Following the sell-off on the 19th of January, the asset entered a short-term retracement phase.

It has lost control of the $94.5k local resistance, a level bulls have battled to regain since mid-November. Yet, it was not all doom and gloom for the leading crypto.

On the 16th of January, crypto analyst Maartunn pointed out that 41,800 Bitcoin were sent to exchanges within 24 hours. It was a clear sign of profit-taking pressure at a time when the price was about to challenge the short-term holder’s cost basis level at $99,470.

The analyst asserted that, so long as BTC is trading below the STH cost basis, the rally is a bear market rally and not a new bullish trend.

Assessing the Bitcoin resilience

In a recent report, AMBCrypto observed that the options market was showing renewed optimism. The Put/Call Ratio was at 0.71, which reflected bullish positioning.

Despite the macro FUD, Bitcoin whales who bought in December with a cost basis of $90k-$92k were not capitulating. Institutional demand was strong, and ETF flows were strong over the past week, with Monday breaking a 4-day positive streak.

The derivatives data also showed a bullish shift. The Buy/Sell Index transitioned from negative values on Monday, the 12th of January, to a sustained positive zone by the end of the previous week.

Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that the average weekly balance of derivative flow was bullish. This shift brought a sustained inflow of buyers, strengthening upward movements and increasing their chances of continuation.

Did the recent sell-off dent bulls’ plans?

The 4-hour chart showed that the swing structure on this timeframe was bullish. BTC was facing a deep retracement, and the 78.6% level at $91,154 was about to be tested.

The MFI showed strong selling pressure and downward momentum at press time, but there is hope for a bullish recovery if the $91.1k area is defended.

Final Thoughts

  • The short-term holder selling pressure when Bitcoin rallied toward $100k last week showed weak conviction.
  • The average weekly balance of derivative flow was turning bullish, and the H4 timeframe chart showed that a recovery is possible.

Related Questions

QWhat percentage did Bitcoin fall from its local high on January 14th?

ABitcoin fell 5.67% from its local high of $97.9k on the 14th of January.

QAccording to analyst Maartunn, what does it mean if BTC trades below the STH cost basis?

AThe analyst asserted that, so long as BTC is trading below the STH cost basis, the rally is a bear market rally and not a new bullish trend.

QWhat was the Put/Call Ratio and what sentiment did it reflect according to the report?

AThe Put/Call Ratio was at 0.71, which reflected bullish positioning.

QWhat key level on the 4-hour chart was about to be tested for a potential bullish recovery?

AThe 78.6% level at $91,154 was about to be tested for a potential recovery.

QWhat two final thoughts did the article present regarding Bitcoin market sentiment?

AThe short-term holder selling pressure showed weak conviction, and the average weekly balance of derivative flow was turning bullish, showing a recovery is possible.

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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