Bitcoin OGs’ sell-off falls by 73%, but will that help BTC’s Q1 outlook?

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-01-16Last updated on 2026-01-16

Abstract

Bitcoin's recovery prospects are improving as selling pressure from long-term holders, known as OGs, has dropped by 73% over two years, falling from 3,000 BTC to 1,000 BTC. This reduction in selling, combined with reset market conditions from late 2025, supports a solid recovery. Institutional demand is now nearly five times the new supply from miners, with 30k BTC absorbed compared to 5.7k minted. Analysts project continued institutional inflows in 2026, aided by regulatory developments. The True MVRV indicator suggests potential for further price growth, though a surge toward 1.5 or 2.0 could signal a cooling off. BTC currently trades at $95.5k, up 18% from its Q4 2025 low.

Bitcoin OGs have reduced their selling pressure, further boosting the crypto asset’s recovery odds. These are investors who showed early conviction in BTC, including early miners, developers, and first adopters.

Some of these investors purchased BTC when the price was below $100 and subsequently made a massive profit after holding for over 5 years.

The explosive Bitcoin [BTC] run this cycle attracted profit-taking from this cohort, a move some analysts said partially slowed the asset’s momentum in 2025.

However, at press time, the selling pressure from Bitcoin OGs had dropped from a 90-day average of 3,000 BTC in 2024 to 1,000 BTC as of 2026 – A 73% decline in two years.

Institutional demand surpasses mined BTC

So far, 2026’s market shifts have been positive for BTC. Notably, the massive selling pressure in late 2025 from long-term holders (Investors who held BTC for more than 5 months), ETF outflows, and excessive leverage has largely been reset.

This has provided the structural foundation for a solid recovery. In fact, the current institutional demand for BTC is nearly five times its new supply, or the BTC miners mint.

As of mid-January 2026, institutions have absorbed 30k BTC, way more than the freshly minted 5.7k BTC.

A similar trend was observed in 2025 and 2024 when ETFs debuted. In fact, JPMorgan analysts predicted that crypto inflows will surge in 2026, following a record $130 billion in 2025. The analysts wrote,

“The rebound in institutional flows we project for 2026 is likely to be facilitated by the passage of additional crypto regulations such as the Clarity Act in the U.S., which is likely to trigger further institutional adoption of digital assets as well as fresh institutional activity.”

Will BTC’s recovery extend itself?

Here, it’s worth stating that the True MVRV, an oscillator that identifies key market cycles and investor sentiment shifts, bottomed out near 1.0 and recovered to 1.1.

Past recovery patterns at the same level have revealed that shifts (local tops) occurred when the oscillator surged towards 1.5 (mid-range) or 2.0.

In other words, if the current recovery extends itself, it could cool off if MVRV climbs to 1.5 or 2. At press time, BTC was trading at $95.5k, up 18% from Q4 2025’s low of $80.6k.

Final Thoughts

  • Selling pressure from early Bitcoin investors who began holding over five years ago has fallen by 73%.
  • Recovery could extend itself if the macro landscape supports it, but it could cool off if the True MVRV shifts at 1.5.

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Related Questions

QWhat is the percentage decline in selling pressure from Bitcoin OGs as of 2026, and over what period did this occur?

AThe selling pressure from Bitcoin OGs has dropped by 73% over a two-year period, from a 90-day average of 3,000 BTC in 2024 to 1,000 BTC as of 2026.

QAccording to the article, how does current institutional demand for BTC compare to the new supply minted by miners?

AAs of mid-January 2026, institutional demand has absorbed 30,000 BTC, which is nearly five times the amount of the freshly minted supply of 5,700 BTC.

QWhat key indicator's movement could signal a potential cooling off of BTC's current recovery?

AThe recovery could cool off if the True MVRV oscillator surges towards the mid-range level of 1.5 or the level of 2.0.

QWhat was the primary reason JPMorgan analysts projected a surge in crypto inflows for 2026?

AJPMorgan analysts projected the rebound would be facilitated by the passage of additional crypto regulations, such as the Clarity Act in the U.S., which would trigger further institutional adoption and fresh institutional activity.

QWhat was the low point for BTC's price in Q4 2025, and what was its price at the time of writing?

ABTC's price hit a low of $80.6k in Q4 2025 and was trading at $95.5k at the time of writing, representing an 18% increase.

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