Bitcoin in historic buy zone as 90% of capital slips into loss – Details

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-04-08Last updated on 2026-04-08

Abstract

Bitcoin is currently in a historic buy zone, with 80-90% of invested capital at a loss, indicating significant market stress. Despite concerns over selling pressure—such as MARA Holdings transferring 200 BTC to a wallet linked to potential sales—the situation mirrors past cycles where such conditions preceded recoveries. BTC remains above key long-term on-chain support levels, including the Realized Price ($54.1K) and LTH Realized Price ($49.2K), suggesting the broader cost basis is intact. However, it trades below short-term holder levels, indicating recent buyers are under pressure. This points to a potential accumulation opportunity rather than a full market breakdown, though short-term volatility may persist.

Bitcoin [BTC] is going through a tough time in the market, with concerns around losses and possible selling pressure from major holders.

However, it’s not as hopeless as it seems.

Bitcoin underwater – A strong entry point?

Roughly 80% to 90% of invested capital is currently at a loss, putting a large share of market participants in trouble. This is not the first time the market has reached such levels though.

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Similar conditions have appeared in previous cycles, and every time, a recovery phase followed.

Source: Rand/X

High, unrealized losses often come with peak fear, when sentiment is weak but long-term value begins to improve.

This does not guarantee an immediate reversal, but it puts Bitcoin in an accumulation zone that investors would likely watch.

MARA Holdings adds to selling concerns

According to Arkham Intelligence, MARA Holdings (the fourth largest BTC treasury) transferred 200 BTC worth around $13.84 million. This is interesting because the receiving wallet appears to be linked to selling activity!

Source: Arkham Intelligence

The last time MARA sent Bitcoin to this wallet was about two months ago. It’s not a confirmed sale, but it has added to the somber mood already building in the market.

At a time when a large share of Bitcoin capital is already in loss, such moves can increase short-term selling fears and pressure BTC’s price.

Bitcoin’s price stays above key support level

Despite the recent weakness, all hope is not lost for Bitcoin though. 

Some are labelling the current state a “compression,” rather than a full market reset. While BTC is down roughly 50% from its 2025 peak, the price is still holding above $68.6K, well above its key long-term on-chain support levels.

Source: X

At the time of writing, BTC was still above the Realized Price ($54.1K), LTH Realized Price ($49.2K), and Investor Price ($49.5K). So, the broader cost basis of the market is still intact too.

Source: X

In fact, weakness appeared to be more visible among recent buyers, with BTC still trading below the STH Realized Price ($79.2K) and True Market Mean Price ($78.3K).

This implied that while STHs may be under pressure, the long-term support structure has not yet given in.

Final Summary

  • Bitcoin’s price entered an important accumulation zone, with 80-90% of capital in loss at press time. 
  • Despite selling fears, BTC remains above its key long-term on-chain support.

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Related Questions

QWhat percentage of invested capital in Bitcoin is currently at a loss, according to the article?

ARoughly 80% to 90% of invested capital is currently at a loss.

QWhich entity transferred 200 BTC to a wallet linked to selling activity, raising concerns in the market?

AMARA Holdings, the fourth largest BTC treasury, transferred 200 BTC to a wallet linked to selling activity.

QWhat key long-term on-chain support levels is Bitcoin's price still holding above?

ABitcoin's price is still holding above the Realized Price ($54.1K), LTH Realized Price ($49.2K), and Investor Price ($49.5K).

QWhat is the STH Realized Price mentioned in the article, and how does the current price compare to it?

AThe STH Realized Price is $79.2K, and Bitcoin is currently trading below it, indicating weakness among recent buyers.

QDespite the current market conditions, what phase has historically followed similar periods of high unrealized losses?

AHistorically, a recovery phase has followed similar periods of high unrealized losses in previous cycles.

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