Bitcoin [BTC] has been holding up pretty well despite ongoing geopolitical tension. It has been hovering around $70k for over three weeks straight. That said, on the daily chart, BTC would need to break above $75k to set a second higher high and start eyeing the $80k zone.
The environment is extremely volatile right now. With such a huge Options expiry on the horizon, price swings could get amplified.
According to Deribit data, nearly $14 billion in Bitcoin Options are set to expire on the 27th of March. In fact, this expiry accounts for almost 40% of Deribit’s total open positions.
Now, to get a sense of how this might play out, it helps to look at a few key metrics.
For instance, Bitcoin’s put/call ratio is currently at 0.62, which means that calls are dominating. From a technical standpoint, out of a total Open Interest of 196k contracts, around 121k are call options, so traders are leaning bullish heading into the expiry.
Moreover, the max pain level is coming in at $75k. Basically, this level represents the sweet spot where option sellers stand to benefit the most. According to AMBCrypto, this creates an interesting setup.
On the technical side, Bitcoin has been chopping around $70k for weeks, showing resilience, but the $75k mark has acted as a strong ceiling.
The sheer size of the Options expiry has traders on high alert, watching to see whether BTC can finally push past $75k or if sellers will cap it near max pain.
Looking at sentiment, though, it feels like traders have already made up their minds.
This Friday could put Bitcoin’s resilience to the ultimate test
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index shows that since Bitcoin hit resistance around $75k in mid-March, the index has slid back into the fear zone.
The fascinating part is that when BTC topped in this range, it wasn’t accompanied by greed, which tells you traders weren’t fully confident in pushing the market higher.
Put simply, Bitcoin ran into resistance because bulls didn’t have enough follow-through.
Add consistent selling pressure to the mix, and it’s clear the market is still hitting friction before any meaningful upside. Every rally has stalled, and buyers aren’t stepping up aggressively, keeping BTC pinned below key levels.
Against this backdrop, the $14 billion Options expiry on Friday adds another layer of uncertainty. With so much of the market’s open positions coming off the table, pushing past $75k looks tough, especially since sentiment is still cautious and traders are hesitant to take on risk.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin faces a critical test this Friday as the $14 billion Options expiry could keep it pinned below $75k.
- Resistance and selling pressure remain key hurdles, making BTC’s ability to hold $70k support the main focus for short-term market direction.
