Axie Infinity erases September losses – But AXS price faces THIS threat

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-01-22Last updated on 2026-01-22

Abstract

The gaming token sector, including Axie Infinity (AXS), posted strong gains despite broader crypto market pressure, with AXS erasing losses since mid-September. However, the rally shows signs of exhaustion. The RSI indicates overbought conditions, suggesting a potential near-term pullback. Spot market activity reveals a shift, with $91,000 in outflows and a 21% drop in trading volume, signaling weakening momentum. While derivatives data shows lingering bullish sentiment in futures, the negative funding rate points to growing short positions. If spot demand softens further alongside negative funding, AXS could face increased risk of a deeper correction.

While the broader crypto market remained under pressure, gaming tokens stayed relatively insulated and posted strong gains.

The sector recorded a monthly weighted average increase of roughly 40%, with AXS among the top performers.

Axie Infinity’s [AXS] recent rally erased losses accumulated since the 12th of September 2025, pushing many holders back to break-even. However, momentum indicators suggested the advance may be nearing exhaustion, raising pullback risk.

Investor positioning raises caution

Investor positioning in AXS grew increasingly aggressive during the rally. That shift raised questions about the uptrend’s durability.

At press time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved back above 70, placing AXS in overbought territory. Such conditions historically preceded short-term price tops rather than sustained breakouts.

The TradingView chart showed RSI remained elevated as price accelerated. That divergence increased the probability of near-term mean reversion.

That said, downside risk appeared contained for now. The Accumulation/Distribution indicator dipped modestly but stayed firmly positive.

This suggested selling pressure increased, yet broader market structure remained supportive. Any pullback would likely remain corrective unless accumulation weakened further.

Spot investors pull back

Spot market activity offered one of the clearest signals of shifting sentiment, with capital beginning to exit the market.

Exchange Netflows showed Spot traders sold roughly $91,000 worth of AXS over the past 24 hours.

That marked a clear shift from the steady buying observed during the recent advance. Spot participants often provide structural support, making their retreat notable.

On top of that, trading activity slowed sharply. CoinGlass data showed volume fell 21% to about $2 billion, a decline exceeding $400 million.

When price advances on falling volume, it often signals weakening momentum. Historically, such conditions have preceded either consolidation or corrective price moves.

Derivatives market signals divergence

Derivatives data presented a mixed picture. The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio showed that bullish sentiment still dominated in the perpetual Futures market, with taker buy orders outweighing sell orders.

However, funding data told a different story. The OI-Weighted Funding Rate turned decisively negative, signaling that short positions outweighed longs.

CoinGlass data showed the metric printed -0.1286% at press time. That meant bearish traders paid funding to maintain exposure.

If negative funding persisted alongside softening spot demand, downside pressure could build. That alignment would increase the risk of a deeper corrective phase for AXS.


Final Thoughts

  • Axie Infinity (AXS) erased post-September losses as gaming tokens outperformed, lifting the price back toward key resistance.
  • Overbought RSI, weakening spot demand, and negative OI-Weighted Funding Rate suggest momentum may fade near-term.

Related Questions

QWhat was the performance of gaming tokens like Axie Infinity (AXS) compared to the broader crypto market recently?

AGaming tokens remained relatively insulated from the broader crypto market's pressure and posted strong gains, with the sector recording a monthly weighted average increase of roughly 40%.

QWhat key technical indicator suggests that AXS might be in overbought territory and facing a potential pullback?

AThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved back above 70, placing AXS in overbought territory, which historically has preceded short-term price tops.

QWhat shift in spot market activity signals a change in sentiment for AXS?

AExchange Netflows showed that spot traders sold approximately $91,000 worth of AXS over the past 24 hours, marking a clear shift from the steady buying observed during the recent advance.

QWhat does a negative OI-Weighted Funding Rate indicate for the AXS derivatives market?

AA negative OI-Weighted Funding Rate, which was -0.1286% at press time, signals that short positions outweigh longs, meaning bearish traders are paying funding to maintain their exposure.

QWhat are the main factors mentioned that could lead to a deeper corrective phase for AXS?

AThe alignment of persistent negative funding rates alongside softening spot demand could build downside pressure and increase the risk of a deeper corrective phase for AXS.

Related Reads

human.tech Launches Clean SDK for Privacy-First Web3 Apps

human.tech has launched the Clean SDK, a toolkit enabling developers to build privacy-first Web3 applications with transparent accountability. Released alongside Aztec's version 5, the SDK provides components for integrating zero-knowledge identity verification, sanctions screening, and private transactions, without developers handling sensitive user data or building compliance infrastructure from scratch. It uses zero-knowledge proofs and programmable verification to allow apps to confirm user legitimacy and sanctions compliance while keeping identities confidential. The first application built on the SDK, Shield, a privacy bridge to Aztec, also launched. It allows users to transfer assets privately while proving a unique human is behind each transfer and that funds have passed sanctions checks, as verified by a May 2026 audit. The SDK offers three core verification techniques: Proof of Innocence (sanctions screening against 23 sources), Proof of Personhood (simpler verification via Human Passport), and Proof of Clean Hands (higher-assurance zero-knowledge government ID checks). This allows apps to authenticate users and transactions without exposing personal data. Designed for Aztec builders, the SDK lets developers add programmable privacy to decentralized apps, eliminating the need to create their own verification and ZK infrastructure. Shield demonstrates its practical use for private bridges, but the SDK aims to enable a wider ecosystem of private, accountable financial apps and services. The launch addresses growing demand for infrastructure that balances privacy and accountability. The SDK avoids traditional identity databases, storing encrypted data off-chain, screening at both entry and exit points, and including a gated disclosure mechanism for legal requests. human.tech's products, including the Clean SDK, focus on using zero-knowledge technology to enable verifiable personhood and privacy in digital systems.

TheNewsCrypto15m ago

human.tech Launches Clean SDK for Privacy-First Web3 Apps

TheNewsCrypto15m ago

Unlocking $100 Million in Liquidity? Pump.fun's New Policy Tests the 5-Minute Pump Technique

Pump.fun, a popular meme coin launchpad, has introduced a new standard mechanism called BOOST. It aims to address a significant capital efficiency issue: when a newly launched token graduates from its initial bonding curve to a liquidity pool (LP), roughly 20% of its liquidity becomes permanently locked as "dead liquidity," estimated to waste over $100 million annually. Instead of locking these funds permanently, BOOST repurposes them. Upon a token's migration, approximately 20% of the settlement funds (e.g., 17.6 SOL or ~$2516 USDC) are used to buy back the token on the open market over a 5-minute period via a Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP) mechanism. All purchased tokens are immediately burned. This creates a brief, systematic buy pressure immediately after migration, potentially generating a short-term price surge ("pump") while permanently reducing the token's circulating supply. The goal is to enhance the immediate post-launch trading experience, potentially increasing trader retention and sustainable protocol revenue, which funds ongoing token buybacks. However, concerns exist that this artificial 5-minute boost could lower the barrier for launching low-quality tokens and lead to steeper price crashes once the buy pressure stops, if followed by large sell-offs. The feature automatically applies to tokens migrating after July 21, 2024, but not to previously migrated tokens or those launched via the Mayhem AI Agent lab.

marsbit22m ago

Unlocking $100 Million in Liquidity? Pump.fun's New Policy Tests the 5-Minute Pump Technique

marsbit22m ago

Podcast Notes | Conversation with GSR Asset Management Head: To Determine if This Crypto Rally is Real, Just Watch the Lending Rates on Aave

Podcast Summary: Dialogue with GSR's Head of Asset Management: To Determine if This Crypto Rally is Real, Just Check Lending Rates on Aave Andy Baehr, Managing Director of Asset Management at GSR, discusses the current crypto market, characterizing it as stuck in a state of "ambivalence" with short-lived, unsustainable rallies. He outlines a simple framework: the market moves between "ambivalence" and "conviction" (sustained upward momentum). Currently, every rally resembles a single-stage rocket booster that quickly fizzles out. Baehr identifies three key signals to watch: 1) DeFi lending rates, 2) the potential passage of the CLARITY Act, and 3) the market forming a consensus on the "Fed hawkish peak." He emphasizes that the most immediate indicator for the sustainability of the recent CPI-triggered rally is the USDC borrowing rate on Aave, currently around 3.75%—close to U.S. Treasury yields. The absence of a credit spread indicates low leverage demand and a lack of market energy. He explains that a healthy, sustained rally requires layered buying pressure. Last year's rally progressed from an ETH short squeeze to crypto-native trader influx and finally to ETF inflows. Currently, this structure is missing. Other potential structural buyers like Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies are absent, and ETF flows have proven transient. Baehr notes that while small-cap crypto tokens outperformed large caps in Q2—a potential sign of capitation in major assets—capital is also flowing to more exciting opportunities like AI stocks and tech IPOs, leaving crypto sidelined. Regarding DeFi, he highlights that platforms like Aave provide a clear, real-time signal of leverage demand through their supply/demand-driven interest rates. A significant, sustained rate increase would signal genuine market conviction. He also observes the quiet emergence of fixed-income-like products and vaults in DeFi. On regulation, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing before the August 7th deadline has dropped linearly from 75% to below 40% on Polymarket. Baehr suggests its passage would be treated as a bullish surprise, a potent driver for price movement. However, political hurdles, including ethical clause debates and disclosures about the First Family's crypto profits, remain significant obstacles. Ultimately, the market awaits clarity on the Fed's terminal rate under Chair Warsh. Until the "Fed Solstice"—the point where the market collectively understands the peak of hawkish policy—sustained conviction will be difficult to achieve.

marsbit53m ago

Podcast Notes | Conversation with GSR Asset Management Head: To Determine if This Crypto Rally is Real, Just Watch the Lending Rates on Aave

marsbit53m ago

Trading

Spot
活动图片