Ethereum Classic declined sharply over the past 24 hours, closing with a loss of nearly 9%. The drop reflects growing downside pressure, with market positioning skewed heavily in favor of bearish traders.
Capital concentration favors bears
The recent cascade followed a noticeable contraction in liquidity.
Roughly 9% of liquidity exited the Ethereum Classic [ETC] perpetual market, leaving open interest at approximately $90.12 million. When weighed against Funding Rate data, the remaining capital appears largely aligned with short sellers.
At the time of writing, the Open Interest–Weighted Funding Rate has turned negative, printing -0.0282—one of its steepest negative readings since October 2025, a period that also coincided with a comparable price decline.
A negative funding rate indicates that short traders are paying long traders, signaling dominant bearish sentiment and a willingness by shorts to maintain their positions.
Liquidation data further underscores this imbalance. Long positions have absorbed the bulk of recent liquidations, while short sellers remain comparatively insulated. This disparity highlights the strength of bearish conviction and suggests that price action currently tilts in favor of sellers.
Market structure sends mixed signals
Despite the bearish derivatives backdrop, the price structure presents a more nuanced picture across timeframes.
On the daily chart, ETC trades within a descending channel, defined by diagonal resistance and support trendlines. While descending channels often carry bearish implications, they can also precede bullish breakouts if price closes decisively above the upper resistance boundary.
At press time, the price hovered near the midpoint of the channel. A sustained move above the $9.94 resistance level would strengthen the case for a short-term recovery.
However, the broader monthly timeframe paints a more cautious outlook.
Over the long term, ETC continues to trend lower. The structure resembles a large consolidation pattern defined by horizontal support and descending resistance.
Typically, such formations resolve with a breakout near the confluence of support and resistance.
In this instance, price has already broken below key support and now approaches a lower structural level. A breakdown beneath this zone would push ETC to a new all-time low on its Binance monthly chart.
Conversely, if the lower support holds, a rebound scenario remains viable.
Short-term bounce possible?
Momentum indicators suggest the possibility of temporary relief.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed the blue MACD line trending upward toward the orange signal line. The histogram has also begun printing green bars with increasing intensity, signaling strengthening bullish momentum in the short term.
Similarly, the Aroon Indicator reflects improving upside pressure. The Aroon Up (orange) remains above the Aroon Down (blue), aligning with the constructive signals seen on the MACD.
If momentum continued to build, ETC could experience a short-term rebound in the coming sessions.
However, unless price reclaims and sustains levels above $9.94, the broader bearish structure remains intact.
In summary, derivatives positioning heavily favors bears, and long-term structure still leans bearish.
While technical indicators point to the possibility of a near-term bounce, the broader trend suggests that investors should remain cautious, as downside risks have not yet fully dissipated.
Final Summary
- Ethereum Classic (ETC) dropped nearly 9% – as Open Interest fell to $90.12M, Funding Rate turned negative at -0.0282.
- A move above $9.94 may decide whether ETC stabilizes.
