Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)
"Circle is focused on long-term development (playing the long game)...... If we can achieve our mission of building a full-stack internet platform infrastructure, the stock will naturally take care of itself in the long run (the stock is going to take care of itself)."
On July 14, Circle President Heath Tarbert appeared live on FOX Business for an interview. When answering the host's question about "CRCL has fallen from a high of $260 to $62, what would you like to say to the trapped investors?", Tarbert gave the above answer.
Championing "long-term value" seems to be the answer every company going through a stock price downturn gives. However, to verify the credibility of this answer, one cannot simply look at how management describes the future, but rather whether they are willing to continue betting on that future with their own capital.
After all, management is often the group that best understands the company's situation. They hold the company's operational data, strategic plans, and future growth paths. If they genuinely believe the current stock price is undervalued, then a significant price correction should theoretically be a rare buying opportunity.
But for Circle, management's actions may reveal a different answer.
73 Sales, 0 Purchases: Is This the So-Called Long-Term Value?
After Tarbert raised the banner of "long-term," CRCL investors checked the Form 4 documents filed by Circle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and discovered a rather thought-provoking fact — this very Circle president, who just conveyed long-term confidence to the market, has been continuously selling company stock since CRCL went public.
- Odaily Note: Form 4 is a securities transaction report that insiders of U.S. publicly traded companies must file with the SEC to disclose the buying and selling of company stock by directors, executives, and shareholders holding more than 10%. Compared to ordinary investors who can only see public market price changes, Form 4 provides an important window into how insiders view the company's value.
Circle's Form 4 filings show that since Tarbert's first sale of CRCL in June 2025, he has cumulatively sold CRCL 10 times, cashing out approximately $30.77 million, and has never conducted any share purchase operations.
If it were just Tarbert alone continuously selling shares, it might be one thing, but a further review of all insider trading records for Circle reveals that the situation is not so simple — from the founder and CEO, to the CFO, to the CPTO, to the CAO, to board members... multiple key insiders at Circle have all been selling shares. A total of 73 sales, 0 purchases, with a total cash-out of approximately $664 million.
A brief overview of the share sale data for these key insiders:
- Founder and CEO Jeremy Allaire: Sold 9 times, bought 0 times, cashed out $139 million.
- Board Member Burns M Michele: Sold 12 times, bought 0 times, cashed out $276 million.
- Board Member Neville Patrick Sean: Sold 13 times, bought 0 times, cashed out $181 million.
- CFO Fox-Geen Jeremy: Sold 9 times, bought 0 times, cashed out $22.45 million.
- CPTO Chandhok Nikhil: Sold 12 times, bought 0 times, cashed out $69.21 million.
- CAO Schulz Tamara: Sold 9 times, bought 0 times, cashed out $1.21 million.
- President Heath Tarbert: Sold 10 times, bought 0 times, cashed out $30.77 million...
Clearly, as CRCL's stock price fell more than 70% from its high and the market began reassessing Circle's long-term value, the group closest to the company's business did not choose to express confidence in future growth by increasing their holdings.
Executive Share Reduction Is Common, But The Trading Structure Is Too "One-Sided"
It should be clarified that insiders selling stock cannot simply be equated with them being bearish on the company's future.
For management of publicly listed companies, stock sales themselves are not uncommon. Especially after an IPO, founders, executives, and early investors often hold large amounts of equity. Selling a portion of shares for wealth diversification, tax planning, or personal asset allocation are all normal phenomena.
Therefore, merely seeing one or even several executives sell shares is not enough to prove they are not optimistic about the company's future. The real key issue is actually — after the stock price experiences a significant correction, is anyone willing to buy back in?
For Circle, the controversy lies precisely here.
CRCL once rose rapidly after listing to above $260, then declined all the way. Currently, it is down more than 70% from its high. Although there was a brief rebound some time ago, it did not last long before falling again. According to traditional investment logic, if management truly believes the company's long-term value has not changed, or even believes the market undervalues Circle's future, then the post-correction stock price should provide a highly attractive buying opportunity.
After all, compared to ordinary investors, these insiders naturally possess an absolute information advantage. They know USDC's growth, the company's customer expansion progress, future product roadmaps, and the company's real position in the stablecoin competition... However, judging from the publicly disclosed Form 4 data, Circle's core management has not made any purchases at the low stock price levels, but has been continuously selling and cashing out.
This highly "one-sided" trading structure is difficult to convey to the market a level of long-term confidence that matches the "playing the long game" rhetoric from the interview.
Re-examining CRCL's Value: Can the Long-Term Narrative Match the Current Valuation?
Of course, even if insiders are continuously selling shares, it cannot be completely equated with "Circle lacks long-term value," but it can easily further strengthen the market's pessimistic expectations about the company.
Especially against the backdrop of CRCL's continuously declining stock price, the market's perception of Circle already harbors a significant divergence — Is Circle a future financial infrastructure company, or an issuer dependent on stablecoin scale and the interest rate environment?
Initially during the IPO, the market's high valuation for Circle bet on a grander story — as stablecoins become global digital payment infrastructure, Circle has the opportunity to become an important gateway connecting traditional finance and the crypto world.
But as the stock price fell from its highs, investors have begun to re-examine this logic. On one hand, Circle's current revenue remains highly dependent on USDC reserve asset yields. Whether profitability can maintain high-speed growth in a rate-cutting cycle has become a market concern. On the other hand, during the crypto market downturn, whether USDC's growth space can still meet previous expectations is also uncertain. Furthermore, as more financial institutions and crypto companies enter the stablecoin field, Circle's once-greatest compliance advantage is being reassessed.
Therefore, CRCL's current downturn can essentially be understood as the market re-examining its value — Can the stablecoin industry's growth and Circle's own business conditions support the high-growth valuation once bestowed upon CRCL?
In the future, Circle will still need to answer this question with actual performance.
