“七巨头”不够用了？SpaceX 上市散户狂买，华尔街端出“AI 科技十巨头”

marsbitPublished on 2026-06-16Last updated on 2026-06-16

Abstract

SpaceX于上周五上市首日吸引散户净买入1.17亿美元，占当天全美散户股票买盘的56%，其IPO募资约750亿美元，估值约1.75万亿美元。研究机构Vanda据此提出“FAB 10”（前沿AI与科技十巨头）新概念，主张在原有的“七巨头”基础上，加入SpaceX、OpenAI和Anthropic，认为这些公司代表未来十年科技与AI方向。OpenAI与Anthropic尚未上市，预计估值或达万亿美元级别。与此同时，美国银行曾提出偏向半导体硬件的“AI Big 10”组合。Vanda指出，SpaceX的火爆可能从其他热门板块（如芯片股）抽走资金。尽管科技板块估值已显泡沫迹象，但市场对新巨头的追捧仍在改写投资框架。

作者:克洛德,深潮 TechFlow

深潮导读:SpaceX 上周五上市首日吸引散户净买入 1.17 亿美元,占当天全美散户股票买盘的 56%。研究机构 Vanda 据此抛出"FAB 10"新概念,主张用前沿 AI 与科技十巨头取代沿用多年的"七巨头",把 SpaceX、OpenAI、Anthropic 纳入其中。后两家尚未上市,市场预计今年晚些时候登陆,估值或均超万亿美元。

SpaceX 的上市首秀,正在改写华尔街给科技股贴标签的方式。

据财联社援引 Vanda Research 上周日发布的报告,SpaceX 上周五的 IPO 在散户追捧下获得巨大成功,引发市场重新定义整个科技行业的讨论。在此之前,这场募资约 750 亿美元的发行已是有记录以来最大规模的 IPO,SpaceX 以每股 135 美元定价,估值约 1.75 万亿美元,跻身全球市值最高的十家上市公司之列。

SpaceX 上市首日,散户买盘占全市场 56%

Vanda 的数据给这场狂热提供了量化注脚。报告称,SpaceX 上市首日吸引散户净买入 1.17 亿美元,占当天全美股市所有散户股票买盘的 56%。

这一数字只反映二级市场首日的买入情况,并不包括通过券商参与 IPO 配售的散户资金。另有数据显示,在这笔 750 亿美元的发行中,散户最终拿到约 20%的配售份额,高于平均水平;对冲基金获得 10%,长期持有型机构投资者则拿下 70%。

散户的集中下注,把资金进一步推向少数超大市值科技公司。Vanda 认为,这批企业不只主导股市表现,也在推动整轮科技投资浪潮。

Vanda:用"FAB 10"替代"七巨头"

正是基于这一判断,Vanda 提出了新的分类框架。

"如果过去几年市场由'七巨头'主导,那么上周五可能是最明确的信号——投资者正开始聚焦我们所称的'FAB 10',"Vanda 在报告中写道。FAB 10 是 Frontier AI & Big Tech 10 的缩写,指十家前沿 AI 与科技巨头。

按 Vanda 的定义,FAB 10 在原有七巨头基础上,加入 SpaceX、OpenAI 和 Anthropic。后两家目前尚未上市,但市场预计它们将在今年晚些时候登陆资本市场,估值可能达到数千亿美元乃至万亿美元规模。

Vanda 给出的理由很直接:这些公司共同代表着未来十年 AI 与科技产业的方向。

同一概念,美银的版本不一样

把超大科技股打包成一个新指数,Vanda 不是唯一的玩家。

美国银行首席策略师 Michael Hartnett 此前在《投资宇宙指南》中提出过一个"AI Big 10"组合。与 FAB 10 的差别在于选股:美银的版本是七巨头加上博通、AMD 和美光,更偏向半导体硬件,而 Vanda 押注的是尚未上市的 AI 模型公司和 SpaceX。

两套名单的分歧,本质上是对"下一个十年由谁定义"的不同下注。一边看好造芯片的,一边看好做模型和发火箭的。

散户涌入 SpaceX,芯片股或被抽血

新概念的另一面是资金的再分配。

Vanda 研究人员指出,SpaceX 的火爆可能正在从其他热门板块吸走资金,尤其是此前经历大涨的芯片股,可能正在失去散户投资者的青睐。换句话说,FAB 10 内部也未必雨露均沾,新晋成员的吸金效应,可能以老成员的回调为代价。

不过分析师也提醒,整个科技板块的估值已经显露泡沫迹象。SpaceX 以 1.75 万亿美元估值上市,本身就建立在对 AI 基础设施的乐观预期之上,这份乐观能撑多久,仍要市场来回答。

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