加密市场周观察（11.03-11.09）：市场从恐慌中恢复，山寨资金活跃

深潮Published on 2025-11-10Last updated on 2025-11-11

上周交易所内山寨币合约持仓在10月11日之后继续保持低位，成交额开始逐步恢复到10月11日之前的水平。

作者：深潮 TechFlow

一、整体表现

1、市场情绪

上周市场整体情绪经历了从恐慌到恢复的过程，11月3日-11月4日美国政府停摆带来的阶段性流动性收紧、10.11大跌余波冲击、多家DAT公司宣布出售代币等Fud发酵推动市场持续下跌，BTC最低跌至98950美元，两日跌幅11%；ETH最低跌至3057美元，两日跌幅22%；而后市场低位反复震荡，在11月9日伴随美国政府开门新闻的刺激走出底部震荡区间，情绪开始修复。

下图为Coinglass恐慌&贪婪指数，上周7天市场情绪都处于恐慌区间；11月8号来到周内最低点21，目前恢复至30，代表市场情绪回暖。

图：上周市场情绪从恐慌中逐步恢复

数据来源：Coinglass

2、宏观事件

上周核心关注的宏观事件即美国政府开门，目前共和党在测试投票流程中拿下60票赞成票，接下来将进入正式投票环节，该环节中政府恢复议案仅需51票多数票赞成即可通过，通过后进入众议院投票环节，最终递交总统府由特朗普签字，整个流程大概需要2-5天；上述环节中由于共和党在参议院占据53个投票席位，且众议院中共和党阻力小，故而部分交易者已经在定价本周美国政府开门。Polymarket中11月12-15日美国政府停摆结束的概率升至87%。

图：11月12日-11月15日美国政府停摆结束概率为87%

数据来源：Polymarket

3、具体数据

上周BTC ETF流出2.07亿美元，环比增长50%；ETH ETF流出5.1亿美元，环比由流入变为流出（10月27日-10月31日流入1640万）。

目前BTC交易所余额214万，环比不变；ETH交易所余额1222万枚，环比下降1.1%。数据统计截至10月31日，稳定币市值2656亿美元，周度环比不变。

图：BTC ETF流出2.07亿美元，环比增长50%

数据来源：Coinglass

图：ETH ETF流出5.1亿美元，环比由流入变为流出

数据来源：Coinglass

图：BTC交易所余额环比不变

数据来源：Coinglass

图：ETH交易所余额环比下降1.1%

数据来源：Coinglass

图：稳定币市值环比不变

数据来源：Coinglass

二、局部热点

1、上周交易所内资金活跃，以ZEC为核心的隐私板块领涨市场，ZEC一周涨幅73%未露疲态，Arthur Hayes持续喊单；Near internet桥+ZEC隐私池的隐私效果超过门罗币+Tornado。

数据来源：Rootdata

2、由于AI计算的爆发增长对大容量高速数据存储的产生了强劲需求，但产品的产能扩张需要时间，故而在当前阶段造成了明显的供需失衡；目前原材料晶圆价格持续走高，SanDisk（Western Digital的品牌）将NAND闪存合同价格上调50%，并表态到2026年限制供应增长全面点燃市场情绪。

相关公司Western Digital (WDC)近期上涨6倍，STX上涨5倍，MU上涨4倍。同时美国存储概念火热蔓延到加密市场，FIL一周上涨73%，AR一周上涨46%；FIL上周付费存储交易量首次达到51%，超过矿工自刷数据。

数据来源：Rootdata

3、上周交易所内围绕Alpha+合约的小市值标的、币安Meme、POW板块、灰度概念、隐私概念、Sui生态等板块不断炒作，山寨资金活跃，但仍然呈现快速轮动的态势，多数标的后继无力；时间线上体现为周中资金活跃周末平淡，类似机构资金风格。

目前关于Trump概念、隐私仍然具备较高关注度，X402沉寂一周后开始有复苏迹象，Ping转型做x402发射台；链上由于BSC Meme不断浇给，造富效应变差，Solana Meme开始活跃。

上周交易所内山寨币合约持仓在10月11日之后继续保持低位，但成交额开始逐步恢复到10月11日之前的水平，体现在价格上即热门山寨的价格波动远超以往。

数据来源：Coinglass

上周BSC链上Meme币发行锐减，迅速降温；Salana链上Meme币发行量上涨，资金逐步活跃。

数据来源：Dune

4、上周重要新闻：

美国参议院推进临时拨款法案，程序性投票中获60票支持；

Ripple 完成 5 亿美元融资，Fortress 和 Citadel Securities 领投；

摩根大通入股以太坊储备龙头Bitmine，持仓市值1.02亿美元；

美股上市 BTC 财库公司 Sequans 确认已出售 970 枚比特币以削减债务；

Tom Lee：10 月 11 日暴跌及 DeFi 协议暴雷仍需要几周时间消化；

Arthur Hayes：隐形量化宽松或将重启，或成为下一轮比特币牛市催化剂。

三、本周关注

1、宏观事件：

11月12日，美国政府停摆预计结束，过去因政府停摆而导致的加密加密监管法案和ETF审批的停滞或将重启；

11月12日，美国财长贝森特讲话；

11月13日，美国公布10月CPI数据；

11月14日，美国10月PPI数据。

2、代币解锁：

相关阅读：本周 APT、LINEA、AVAX 等代币将迎来大额解锁，总价值超 2 亿美元

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