Биткоин демонстрирует лучший сентябрь за последние 13 лет

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2025-06-16Last updated on 2025-09-17

Биткоин показывает лучший сентябрь за 13 лет, набрав 8% роста в месяце, который традиционно считается худшим для первой криптовалюты. Для сравнения: обычно сентябрь приносит биткоину потери около 8%.

Месячная доходность биткоина. Источник: CoinGlass

Это второй лучший результат за всю историю наблюдений. Единственный раз, когда девятый месяц года оказался более прибыльным для держателей биткоина, был 2012 год с ростом около 19,8%. В прошлом году рост составил всего 7,3%.

Когда «Rektember» не состоялся

Сентябрь получил прозвище «rektember» среди трейдеров не случайно — исторически это самый слабый месяц для биткоина. Но 2025 год кардинально меняет устоявшиеся правила игры.

В то время как золото и индекс S&P 500 обновляют исторические максимумы, биткоин провел сентябрь в консолидации после установления новых рекордов в августе. Текущая цена BTC/USD составляет $116 326.

1-дневный график BTC/USD. Источник: Bitstamp

В текущем бычьем цикле сезонные колебания биткоина приобретают критическое значение. Исторические паттерны указывают на приближение пика бычьего рынка, в то время как другие рисковые активы продолжают обновлять исторические максимумы.

Исчезновение волатильности

Данные CoinGlass демонстрируют крайне необычную картину для пикового года бычьего рынка биткоина. В отличие от предыдущих циклов, волатильность цены BTC практически исчезла в 2025 году, что противоречит ожиданиям участников рынка, основанным на предыдущих периодах роста.

График волатильности биткоина. Источник: CoinGlass

Волатильность упала до уровней, не наблюдавшихся более десяти лет, с особенно резким снижением с апреля. Аналитическая фирма Glassnode подчеркивает отсутствие серьезных просадок цены биткоина от исторических максимумов в этом бычьем цикле.

График снижения цены биткоина по сравнению с историческими максимумами. Источник: Glassnode

Ранее такие падения достигали 80%, но в 2025 году максимальная составила лишь 30%. Это кардинально отличается от предыдущих циклов и создает уникальную ситуацию на рынке.

Борьба с предыдущими циклами

Относительное отсутствие волатильности отражается на доходности бычьего рынка, который с трудом конкурирует с предыдущими циклами по темпам роста. Это подтверждает уникальность текущего бычьего цикла.

Сравнительный график доходности бычьих циклов биткоина. Источник: Glassnode

Сентябрь 2025 года переписывает правила сезонности биткоина, демонстрируя, что даже устоявшиеся паттерны могут кардинально измениться. Остается вопрос — станет ли это новой нормой или временным отклонением от исторических тенденций.

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