ETH 创 8 月以来最大单日涨幅，「十月上涨」的预言实现了？

marsbitPublished on 2024-10-14Last updated on 2024-10-15

十月初市场的大回调让部分投资者疑虑重重，担忧历史上保持涨势的 10 月，这次可能会「不一样」。结果，历史似乎总是证明「这次也一样」。

BTC 自九月末跃升至 6.6 万美元巅峰后，并未就此驻足，而是经历了一场惊心动魄的回撤，直探 5.9 万美元的深谷。但正是跌宕起伏，孕育了更加汹涌的反弹风暴！自 10 月 11 日起，市场局势如风云突变，单日之内即以 3.67% 的凌厉涨幅，宣告上涨行情归来，价格如破竹之势重返 6.3 万美元高地，随后更是一骑绝尘，冲至 66500 美元。

与此同时，以太坊亦挣脱枷锁，从 2300 美元冲至 2650 美元，单日涨幅超 6.52%，创下自 8 月以来最大单日涨幅。

被激情与希望点燃的大行情中，公链板块 SUI、SEI、APT、稳定币板块 ENA、AI 板块 ARKM、WLD、模因等多个板块标的都迎来大幅拉升。

合约数据方面，空单损失惨重。24 小时全网爆仓 2.46 亿美元，空单爆仓 2.1 亿美元。BTC 未平仓合约数据也飙升至 370 亿美元上方。

市场山寨币群魔乱舞，后半场牛市真的开启了？

BTC 现货 ETF 出现单日大额净流入

自 10 月初以来，虽然有部分资金净流出，但大致与净流入相平衡。10 月 8 日开始，出现 3 日连续净流出，总净流出将近 1.8 亿。

10 月 11 日，数据则出现大逆转，比特币现货 ETF 单日净流入就达到 2.5354 亿美元，创下 10 月以来的单日净流入新高。场外资金大额流入之后，BTC 价格也恰恰是在当日，出现大爬升。

美元


场外资金的信心仍比较坚定。


美联储将继续降息，市场预期稳定

本周美国公布了 9 月 CPI 和 PPI 两大通胀数据。总体 CPI 和核心 CPI 的同比、环比涨幅均超预期，不过 CPI 同比涨幅 2.4% 仍创下 2021 年 2 月以来的最低。PPI 环比持平上月，显示通胀进一步降温。

高盛的经济学家分析指出，虽然 9 月的 CPI 和 PPI 通胀数据喜忧参半，但最终读数仍接近预期，这表明美国通胀正在向美联储 2% 的目标前进，美联储正在接近其通胀目标。

在本周两大重磅通胀数据落地后，交易员们几乎肯定地押注美联储在 11 月和 12 月的会议上将利率分别下调四分之一个百分点。


美总统选举

从历史上看，美国总统大选结果出现附近前后，加密市场往往出现上涨行情。11 月 5 日，美国总统选举结果即将揭晓，目前仅剩 20 天。

此外，彭博社报道，连一向与加密市场并无太多密切联系的美总统候选人哈里斯也在为选票努力。

哈里斯周一提出了一项新计划，为黑人企业家和其他在融资方面面临障碍的人提供贷款。根据哈里斯争取黑人男性选民的竞选大纲，该计划将提供 100 万笔贷款，最高可免除 2 万美元。哈里斯还承诺支持加密货币监管框架，为拥有或曾经拥有数字资产的 20% 美国黑人提供更多的投资确定性。

特朗普家族的 DeFi 借贷项目 World Liberty Financial 也近日动作不断，出引入多位经验丰富的高管之外，还将公开发售起 WLFI 代币。


美元

来自 Polymarket 数据显示，截至目前，特朗普的胜率大幅领先于哈里斯。


目前市场更倾向于认为特朗普当选总统将会利好加密行情，不过鉴于美国总统候选人均释放对加密友善言论以及观点，因此不论是谁上台，负面影响微乎其微。

2016 年至 2020 年中的牛市期间为共和党的特朗普执政，2020 至 2024 年则为民主党的拜登执政。BTC 为主的加密市场在他们各自的执政周期中，都曾出现走势强劲的牛市。



美元


从过去两轮周期的市场历史表现来看，不论是共和党还是民主党总统候选人上台，都并没有影响加密市场的向上走势。

大选结果正式出炉之后，部分选择观望的资金或将一改徘徊犹豫风格，选择大胆下注加密市场。


未来行情走势

Coinbase 分析师：影响加密货币表现的宏观因素正从货币政策转向美国大选结果

Coinbase 分析师 David Duong 和 David Han 表示，尽管比特币本周的价格走势低迷，「市场情绪基本保持不变，过去一周的永续合约资金费率和未平仓合约数量保持稳定，证明了这一点。」Coinbase 分析师指出，影响加密货币表现的宏观因素正在从货币政策转向美国大选结果，尽管近期 CPI 和核心 PPI 的上升，市场对降息的预期依然大致稳定。

他还提到，中国本周六的财政政策简报可能会间接影响加密货币市场，尤其是在许多市场将关闭的时间段。加密货币市场可能会被用来表达对任何财政政策宣布的规模和力度的代理观点。


Bitfinex：BTC 短期持有者实际价格成关键阻力

Bitfinex Alpha 最新分析报告强调，短期持有者的实际价格（约 63,000 美元）成为关键阻力位。突破此位可能引发进一步上涨，而失败则可能导致回测 59,000 美元甚至 55,000 美元的支撑位。

Bitfinex Alpha 认为，市场仍处于被动状态，未来走势将取决于比特币能否突破短期持有者实际价格。建议交易者警惕潜在回调，同时为可能出现的强劲反弹做好准备。

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