Rate Cuts Watch: FOMC Minutes, PCE Inflation and Jobs Data To Move Crypto

ccn.com發佈於 2026-02-16更新於 2026-02-16

文章摘要

This week's crypto market focus is on key U.S. economic data that could influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, due Wednesday, may reveal the Fed's internal debate on inflation and growth, potentially shifting rate-cut expectations without a policy change. Thursday's jobless claims will test whether the labor market is cooling, a crucial factor for the Fed's timing. Friday brings the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data—the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—and the Q4 GDP report, which will provide insights into economic resilience. Markets have recently increased odds of a June rate cut, making any surprises in these releases highly impactful. Crypto, particularly Bitcoin, is sensitive to changes in rate expectations, as they affect Treasury yields, the dollar, and overall risk appetite.

Key Takeaways

FOMC minutes could shift rate-cut expectations without a formal policy change.
Jobless claims will test whether the labor market is cooling.
PCE inflation and Q4 GDP form the week’s main macro catalyst.
Markets have recently increased odds of a June rate cut, making surprises more impactful.

Crypto markets head into a macro-heavy week with one question driving positioning: how close is the Federal Reserve to cutting interest rates?

There is no Fed rate decision scheduled this week. But several releases — including the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, weekly jobless claims , and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE ) inflation — could still reshape rate-cut expectations.

When markets reprice the path of rates, crypto often reacts fast.

Try Our Recommended Crypto Exchanges

ChangeNow

promotions

Receive 0.4% of the volume from each transaction with your referral link.

Coins

Claim Offer

Bitunix

promotions

Receive up to $100,000 worth of exclusive gifts for newcomers upon registration.

Coins

Claim Offer

Bitget

promotions

New user rewards up to 6,200 USDT.

Coins

Claim Offer

Explore All Offers

Wednesday: FOMC Minutes — A Read on the Fed’s Mood

The Federal Reserve will publish minutes from its most recent meeting, giving investors a closer look at the debate behind the official statement.

Minutes often clarify how confident officials are that inflation is cooling and how they’re balancing growth risks against price pressures.

For crypto, this is less about the words themselves than what they do to pricing in rates markets.

If the minutes suggest the Fed is closer to being comfortable with easing, or worried about slowing growth, traders may lean harder into “cuts sooner,” which tends to benefit risk assets.

If the minutes read more cautious, stressing patience or upside inflation risks, expectations can shift out, which often pressures Bitcoin (BTC) and high-beta tokens.

Thursday: Jobless Claims — The Quick Labor Check

Weekly jobless claims are one of the few that markets treat as a real-time signal.

At this stage of the cycle, labor is the tiebreaker: inflation may be cooling, but if the job market stays too strong, the Fed has less urgency to cut.

A noticeable rise in claims can strengthen the case that the economy is cooling, supporting rate-cut pricing.

A stubbornly low print can do the opposite, and if traders conclude the Fed can wait, yields can lift, the dollar can firm, and risk assets can wobble.

Crypto doesn’t trade jobless claims directly. It trades the macro chain reaction.

Friday: PCE Inflation and GDP — The Week’s Main Event

Friday is the week’s “double-header.”

The U.S. releases :

PCE inflation: the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Advance estimate of Q4 GDP: a key read on how resilient growth remains.

This combination matters because it tests the entire rate-cut story in one morning.

PCE is the inflation piece the Fed cares most about, while GDP helps answer whether growth is slowing enough to justify easing.

If PCE confirms continued cooling and GDP shows moderation, the “cuts soon” narrative gets reinforced.

If inflation is stickier than hoped or growth remains too strong, traders may push expected cuts further out, and that’s where crypto can take the hit.

Why This Week Matters for Bitcoin

Bitcoin is increasingly macro-sensitive.

Changes in rate expectations move Treasury yields and the dollar, shaping risk appetite across markets.

This week isn’t about a Fed decision — it’s about whether the data keeps the rate-cut story alive.

你可能也喜歡

迈克尔·塞勒："我们从未说过永远不会出售比特币"

微策略公司主席迈克尔·塞勒表示，公司从未承诺永不卖出其持有的比特币，但预计在长期内仍将保持比特币的净买家身份。此番言论是针对有报道称微策略新获准出售最多价值50亿美元比特币的回应。塞勒澄清，该出售许可并非新消息，而是公司早在6月29日就已公布的资本管理体系的一部分。他指出，相关许可是为了特定目的而设，但并未强制公司必须出售比特币。他强调，公司没有宣布任何新的许可，且预期未来将继续净买入比特币。塞勒还说明，公司的比特币货币化计划并不要求出售比特币资产，并重申公司从未正式采纳“永不卖出比特币”的政策。

cryptonews.ru53 分鐘前

cryptonews.ru53 分鐘前

《夏季拉锯战》仍在继续：突破67000美元将是比特币上涨的起点

比特币价格在8月1日跌至62,217美元，延续了自6月5日开始的盘整格局。目前比特币被困在58,000至67,000美元的区间内，市场参与者对下一步走向存在分歧。技术分析显示关键价位在60,000美元和67,000美元。交易员Crypto Candy认为，只要价格低于66,000美元，就可能跌向60,000美元或更低。投资者Jelle则将当前市场比作“夏季拉锯战”，坚持定期买入的平均成本策略。上行突破的关键在于能否站稳67,000美元以上。交易员Daan Crypto Trades认为，若无法突破此位，市场可能继续盘整。交易员Roman则预测，若伴随足够交易量有效突破67,000美元，价格可能快速上涨至70,000-80,000美元区间。宏观分析师Gert van Lagen从更长周期观察，认为比特币正在测试一个持续七年之久的“杯柄形态”的颈线位，市场恐惧情绪在盘整中逐渐消退。他强调，长期持有者仍未出现投降迹象，NUPL指标显示他们远未进入抛售区域。总而言之，市场共识是比特币正处于积累阶段，60,000美元和67,000美元是关键水平，对任一水平的突破都将决定资产的下一个方向。当前围绕67,000美元的博弈，也反映出短期持有者盈亏平衡点附近的心理压力。近期价格在利好新闻后迅速回落，表明市场叙事尚未转化为持续的资本流入，能否构建更稳固的上涨基础仍有待观察。

cryptonews.ru1 小時前

cryptonews.ru1 小時前

下周必关注｜CLARITY法案有望迎来参议院表决；SpaceX、Circle公布财报（8.3-8.9）

本周（8月3日至8月9日）有多项重要事件值得关注。其中，美国参议院或将对CLARITY法案进行全院表决，该法案旨在为加密行业建立联邦监管框架，谈判需在8月7日前争取足够票数支持。SpaceX和Circle将分别于8月4日和5日公布第二季度财报。SpaceX在发布财报后，其股票将于8月6日迎来首次大规模解锁，比例最高可达总股本的12%。美国7月非农就业报告也将于8月7日公布，市场预期将有所改善。其他事件方面，特朗普家族关联矿企American Bitcoin将于8月3日发布财报；DeFi追踪器Zapper和钱包Ctrl Wallet将于同日停止运营；LayerZero将弃用v1中继器；韩国交易所Upbit将下架AQT和AERGO代币。比特币矿企Hut 8也将于8月4日公布业绩。此外，马斯克宣布Grok 4.6预计于8月7日左右发布，BIP-110强制信号发送将于8月8日前后开始。

marsbit1 小時前

下周必关注｜CLARITY法案有望迎来参议院表决；SpaceX、Circle公布财报（8.3-8.9）

marsbit1 小時前

股票跌得比加密货币还狠，钱去了哪？

7月底，韩国Kospi指数罕见连续两天触发熔断，全球半导体股集体暴跌。SK海力士业绩虽创纪录但不及预期，股价重挫，其两倍做多杠杆ETF市值更蒸发超万亿港元。与此同时，比特币却从低点反弹约15%，呈现“股票跌出币圈样，比特币装死躺赢”的反常局面。此次暴跌并非全市场恐慌，而是对前期最拥挤交易（如AI半导体）的精准去杠杆。催化剂包括不及预期的财报、中国存储芯片扩产带来的竞争压力，以及日元套息交易平仓带来的流动性压力。分析认为，产业逻辑未死，死的是过高的杠杆。那么，从股市流出的资金是否流入了比特币？答案是否定的。比特币的相对抗跌，是因为它在5月至6月已提前经历大幅调整，美国现货比特币ETF曾出现历史性资金外流。真正的避险资金流向了黄金。数据显示，比特币与黄金的相关性已降至极低水平，“数字黄金”叙事在此次危机中暂时失效。机构将两者视为不同资产：黄金用于避险，比特币用于博弈高波动回报。资金未来的流向取决于三个条件：全球流动性压力缓解、美联储在不引发衰退的前提下降息，以及美国CLARITY加密法案的最终落地。当前，比特币与纳斯达克指数的走势正在脱钩，其价格更依赖全球流动性而非单一科技股盈利。这种低相关性可能使其在未来成为机构资产配置中分散风险的选择。尽管当前并非避风港，但比特币已提前出清，为未来资本重新配置占据了有利位置。

marsbit1 小時前

marsbit1 小時前

对话达利欧：当下正处AI泡沫中，投资组合的1%是比特币

桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧在访谈中指出，当前AI热潮已显现经典泡沫特征，高估值与过度借贷可能在未来经济变故下引发资产抛售与衰退。他强调，这背后是更宏大的“大周期”在起作用，即贫富差距、政府债务高企及地缘政治变动共同驱动的约80年循环，目前全球秩序正处力量交替的衰退阶段。为应对不确定性，达利欧建议个人投资者进行多元化资产配置，包括股票、黄金、债券等，而非仅持有现金。他透露自己投资组合中约有1%为比特币，认为其具备硬通货特性，但个人更偏好实物黄金。对于AI的影响，他认为这将在更高层面替代人类思维，加剧贫富差距，而善于运用人类情感、直觉并与AI协作的人将更具优势。谈及英美热议的“财富税”，达利欧认为操作困难，可能引发资本外流或刺破泡沫。关于世界秩序，他预判未来可能走向区域化发展，而非单一主导。最后，他指出美国卷入伊朗冲突暴露了其军事与经济影响力的脆弱性，类似历史上大英帝国的衰落征兆。

marsbit5 小時前

marsbit5 小時前

交易

現貨

Rate Cuts Watch: FOMC Minutes, PCE Inflation and Jobs Data To Move Crypto

文章摘要

ChangeNow

Bitunix

Bitget

Wednesday: FOMC Minutes — A Read on the Fed’s Mood

Thursday: Jobless Claims — The Quick Labor Check

Friday: PCE Inflation and GDP — The Week’s Main Event

Why This Week Matters for Bitcoin

相關問答

你可能也喜歡

迈克尔·塞勒："我们从未说过永远不会出售比特币"

《夏季拉锯战》仍在继续：突破67000美元将是比特币上涨的起点

下周必关注｜CLARITY法案有望迎来参议院表决；SpaceX、Circle公布财报（8.3-8.9）

股票跌得比加密货币还狠，钱去了哪？

对话达利欧：当下正处AI泡沫中，投资组合的1%是比特币

交易

熱門分類

熱門標籤