[Key interpretation] The DOGE shrinkage is in place, and the BTC's main selling pressure increases significantly

Huobi發佈於 2022-11-07更新於 2022-11-08

文章摘要

The number of ETH active addresses decreases, and the adjustment is in progress.

1. BTC impulse height fall back

The short-term 30 minute K chart shows that with the weak short-term rise of BTC, the recent pace of adjustment shows signs of acceleration. BTC expanded its decline during the pullback period and showed signs of a small increase. This shows that since the negative interest rate rise of the Federal Reserve on November 2 reappeared, although the BTC price has bottomed out and recovered, the price increase has basically been exhausted. The current point is around 20770 US dollars, which is the peak level on November 3. Judging from this, the trend of BTC is still uncertain. Therefore, pay attention to the pace of price adjustment.

2. BTC profit taking flight

When BTC rose to $21480, there was an obvious sign of profit taking. In particular, most of the investors who held coins for more than 155 trading days fled on October 18, October 25 and November 4. During this period, the SOPR indicators of BTC reached 1.436, 1.135 and 1.59. It can be seen that when the main profit reaches or approaches 50%, the BTC high selling pressure is still large, which is obviously unfavorable to the recent price rise.

3. ETH activity decreases

From the change of the number of active addresses only, the decline trend of the number of active addresses of ETH has obviously continued. Recently, the number of active addresses has remained at around 2.71 million, which means that the price of ETH is still in the recovery stage. At least judging from the number of active addresses, ETH failed to complete the preparation before the breakthrough when most investors were ready to trade. Therefore, at present, ETH still has the possibility of strengthening short-term fluctuations, and there is a sign of a second retreat below the price of $1600.

4. The pressure of DOGE was released slightly

Although the price continued to retreat, the 4-hour K line hours of DOGE did not continue to show very obvious signs of large-scale escape. During the recent surge and decline of DOGE, the time of large-scale retreat was relatively short, and most trading periods were dominated by volume contraction. When DOGE retreated to a short-term low of $0.114, most mainstream currencies also showed signs of being in place. From the perspective of the volume and price performance of DOGE, it has reached the end of the withdrawal. Short term focus on rebound opportunities.

5. RARI rebounded slightly

The recent trend of RARI is still very strong, but the trading volume in the lifting phase is relatively shrinking. When the 4-hour K line chart was hourly, RARI returned to the process of $5 again, and the trading volume decreased by 75% compared with November 1. Therefore, this time RARI is a continuation of short-term strength, and is not ready to reach a new high. In terms of transactions, the trend of popular currencies such as RARI is still uncertain due to the continuation of the adjustment pace of mainstream currencies such as BTC.

你可能也喜歡

智谱万亿了,DeepSeek还会远吗?

近日,中国大模型公司智谱在港股盘中市值突破1万亿港元,年内涨幅超1900%,总市值达1.1万亿港元,接近阿里巴巴一半、美团两倍。上市不到半年,其市值从500亿港元冲入万亿区间,引发市场对中国AI估值边界的广泛关注。 智谱市值飙升的直接催化剂是其GLM-5.2模型,市场将其视为“国产Anthropic”。全球AI估值锚因Anthropic在代码与企业Agent场景的商业化成功而抬升,智谱借此被重估。同时,马斯克与智谱创始人唐杰的隔空互动,进一步强化了国产模型参与全球前沿竞争的形象。 除智谱外,中国大模型行业资本动作频繁:DeepSeek新一轮融资后估值超500亿美元;MiniMax启动A股IPO;阶跃星辰和月之暗面也瞄准港股。港股市场正成为硬科技资产的再定价场所,资金集中涌入AI等稀缺赛道。 然而,智谱2025年营收仅7.24亿元,净亏损达47.18亿元,万亿市值引发“神话还是泡沫”的争论。市场一边承认估值高昂,一边追逐头部标的,泡沫与溢价共存。7月上旬,智谱和MiniMax将迎来限售股解禁,可能加剧股价波动。 行业的核心挑战在于商业化能力。智谱2025年收入同比增长131.9%,主要来自MaaS平台与企业级业务,并于2026年一季度对API服务提价。但研发开支高达31.8亿元,为收入的4倍多,亏损压力显著。整个中国市场调用量快速增长,IDC预计2026年MaaS调用量将达40000万亿Tokens,C端AI应用月活用户已超4.4亿,但用户规模不等同于盈利。 Anthropic预计在2026年二季度实现经营利润,若成真,将成为行业商业化转折的关键参照。中国大模型公司需证明能将模型能力转化为持续收入与现金流,才能支撑当前打开的估值边界。 智谱突破万亿市值是中国AI产业重估的标志性高点,但能否守住并形成行业曲线,最终取决于国产大模型厂商的商业化成果。

marsbit58 分鐘前

智谱万亿了,DeepSeek还会远吗?

marsbit58 分鐘前

交易

現貨
合約
活动图片