[Weekly Readings] Crypto Bounce Back As Bank Failures Easing

HTX News發佈於 2023-04-01更新於 2023-04-01

文章摘要

Review the hot articles in the past week and help you quickly understand the crypto market.

Articles of this week, helping investors gain an in-depth view of the market.

Market Interpretation

$4 Billion Bitcoin Option Contract To Expire On Friday, What This Means For BTC

The company plans to use corporate resources to fill the gap, including external capital.

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Bitcoin Price Regains Strength As The Bulls Target Fresh Monthly High

Bitcoin price is rising above the $28,000 resistance. BTC bulls seem to be aiming a fresh surge above the $28,500 and $28,800 resistance levels.

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Why Bitcoin Could Be Less Than 120 Days Away From Retesting ATHs

Bitcoin price is currently pulling back alongside the broader crypto market following a strong move from $20,000 to $29,000 in a matter of two weeks. The sharp rally has the market speculating that a bottom might be in.

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Bitcoin Price Action Mirrors Q1 2021, Volatility Ahead?

The surge of the largest cryptocurrency in the market, Bitcoin (BTC), has caught the attention of investors and analysts, with many drawing parallels to BTC’s performance in Q1 2021. While the similarities are striking, some experts caution against assuming that history may repeat itself.

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ETH2.0

Withdrawals Are Coming! ETH Shapella Mainnet Launches April 12th with Exciting Upgrades

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has announced the launch of the Shapella Mainnet.

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历史唯一:持有 4 年,胜率 100% 的资产

本文探讨了一个独特的资产表现现象:在主流高风险可交易资产中,只有比特币(Bitcoin)实现了“任意时点买入并持有满4年,历史名义收益率为100%”的记录。 文章首先对比了其他各类资产: * **标普500指数**:在1929-1932年、1999-2002年等周期出现过4年累计亏损。 * **纳斯达克100指数**:互联网泡沫破裂后,2000-2003年周期亏损约60%。 * **黄金**:在1981-1984年等周期出现显著下跌,甚至经历过长达12年的熊市。 * **美国房地产**:整体市场在2007-2010年周期下跌约23.3%。 * **长期国债与公司债**:受利率波动影响,例如2021-2024年长期国债亏损约19.8%。 能够实现4年名义胜率100%的资产集中在两个极端: 1. **极低风险、合同兑付类资产**:如持有到期的美国短期国债、4年期定期存款(CD)或到期日在4年内的国债。其收益由合同和主权信用保障锁定,但可能无法抵御通胀导致的购买力损失。 2. **比特币**:作为一种没有发行人、不产生现金流、无人承诺兑付的高波动性资产,其100%的胜率完全源于历史市场价格在每次深跌后(如跌幅70%-90%),都能在4年内收复失地并创新高。数据显示,在其统计的4419个滚动4年窗口中,最差收益仍为+32.6%(年化约7.3%)。 **核心结论**:比特币与低风险固收资产的“100%胜率”内涵截然不同。前者体现了其极强的价格恢复能力和长期增长特性,而后者源于信用担保。这一历史记录突显了对比特币而言,长期持有远比频繁交易更为重要。

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历史唯一:持有 4 年,胜率 100% 的资产

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