asiftahsin
06/16 23:34
Technical Outlook: ETH Stabilizing Above Macro Support — Relief Rally Attempt Underway
ETH remains under broader bearish pressure despite showing signs of stabilization above the major macro support region around $1,540–$1,720. Following months of persistent lower highs and lower lows, price continues trading beneath all major moving averages while attempting a short-term recovery from deeply oversold conditions.
Although momentum has improved noticeably over the past few sessions, the higher-timeframe trend remains bearish until ETH reclaims key resistance levels overhead.
📈 EMA Structure (Bearish)
- 20 EMA: $1,796
- 50 EMA: $1,962
- 100 EMA: $2,118
- 200 EMA: $2,385
- Price remains below all major EMAs ❌
- 20 EMA acting as immediate dynamic resistance
- 50 & 100 EMA continue capping upside recovery attempts
- 200 EMA remains the primary macro trend barrier
👉 ETH must reclaim the EMA cluster before any sustainable trend reversal can be confirmed.
📐 Fibonacci & Structure
- Price remains below the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $2,298
- Long-term downtrend structure remains intact
- Recent selloff swept liquidity beneath major support zones
- Current rebound appears corrective within the broader bearish trend
👉 Any relief rally could target:
- $1,800 → Immediate resistance / 20 EMA
- $1,960 → 50 EMA resistance
- $2,120 → 100 EMA resistance
- $2,300 → 0.236 Fibonacci resistance
👉 Failure to hold current support could expose:
- $1,716 → Near-term support
- $1,540 → Critical macro support
- Lower liquidity zones beneath $1,540 if bearish momentum accelerates
🧠 ICT / Smart Money View
- Recent decline swept significant sell-side liquidity below range support
- Market structure remains bearish with lower highs still intact
- Multiple failed recovery attempts suggest continued distribution
- Fair Value Gap (FVG) remains overhead and partially unfilled
ETHUSDT
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