Kaito (KAITO) Surge

Despite a choppy and indecisive broader crypto market, KAITO has surged 21.46%, bucking the bearish trend of major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The rally pushed its price from a low of $0.4898 to a high of $0.6387, breaking key resistance levels. At the time of writing, KAITO trades around $0.6085 with a market cap of $147.15 million and a staggering 1387% increase in daily trading volume, reaching $110.76 million. Technical indicators show bullish signals: the MACD line has crossed above the signal line, and the Chaikin Money Flow (0.61) indicates strong buying pressure. The Bull Bear Power value (0.1560) suggests moderate bullish strength, though the RSI (73.93) points to overbought conditions, hinting at a possible pullback or consolidation. If bulls maintain momentum, KAITO could target $0.61-$0.62. However, a reversal might test support at $0.59 or lower.

The InfoFi narrative, which gained significant traction in the crypto industry, experienced a sudden collapse following an announcement by X's product lead, Nikita Bier, regarding changes to the platform’s API policy. The new policy prohibits applications that reward users for posting on X, citing concerns over AI-generated spam and low-quality replies. This decision effectively undermines the core functionality of many InfoFi projects that rely on X’s API to access user data and distribute tokenized rewards. Key projects, Kaito and Cookie, quickly responded to the policy shift. Kaito announced it would pivot toward Kaito Studio, a more selective, brand-driven platform that moves beyond the crypto space. Its founder, Yu Hu, emphasized a broader focus beyond cryptocurrency. Similarly, Cookie decided to shut down its Snaps platform but is developing Cookie Pro, a real-time crypto market intelligence tool, while exploring potential future adaptations in line with X’s guidelines. The abrupt policy change highlights the vulnerability of InfoFi models that depend heavily on-platform engagement metrics. While some projects, such as those focused on monetizing narratives rather than direct posting rewards, may remain unaffected, the incident marks a significant shift for the attention economy within crypto. The evolution of InfoFi may continue in new forms, but its current iteration has been severely disrupted.

Tiger Research analyzes the collapse of the InfoFi ecosystem following X platform's abrupt API policy change, which banned apps incentivizing posts with rewards. Within three days, major projects like Kaito faced existential threats, revealing the structural vulnerability of Web3 projects over-reliant on centralized platforms. The report outlines five potential survival strategies for InfoFi projects: 1) Shutting down entirely; 2) Pivoting to a bounty-based funding platform with manual review (e.g., Scribble); 3) Adopting a Korean-style sponsored blog model with pre-selected creators; 4) Expanding to multiple platforms (e.g., YouTube, TikTok) to diversify risk; or 5) Evolving into a data-driven MCN-style management agency for KOLs. The future of the sector, termed InfoFi 2.0, is predicted to be smaller, more controlled, and quality-focused, shifting from permissionless scaling to curated, professional networks. However, fundamental challenges remain: designing fair incentive structures to prevent low-quality content and proving the intrinsic value of InfoFi tokens beyond speculative narratives. The path forward requires aligning project sustainability with tokenholder利益.

According to Dune Analytics data, Kaito is facing significant and concentrated unstaking pressure, with approximately 8 million KAITO tokens currently in the unstaking cooldown queue—representing nearly 33% of the total staked supply. A large portion of these tokens (around 6.95M KAITO) is set to be released within 48 hours on January 22–23, indicating a sharp, risk-off exodus rather than normal staking rotation. This initial wave may trigger a negative feedback loop: if token prices decline under selling pressure, the remaining ~24M staked KAITO could also be unstaked, leading to a cascading sell-off. Compounding the pressure, a team and investor token unlock of ~33.09M KAITO (worth ~$13.62M) is scheduled for February 20. The situation is further aggravated by a recent blow to Kaito’s core business model: X (formerly Twitter) banned incentive-driven posting applications, prompting Kaito to suspend its Yaps service and causing a ~20% price drop. In summary, Kaito is entering a sustained period of selling pressure with no clear demand catalyst in sight. Market participants should prepare for near-term volatility, mid-term unlock overhangs, and potential downward spirals in both sentiment and price.

A significant whale transfer of 18 million KAITO tokens (worth $10.33M) to a new wallet sparked market speculation, though the tokens remained unspent, preventing immediate selling pressure. While this event boosted attention and derivatives market activity—with Open Interest rising 14%—spot market data showed persistent seller dominance, indicating trader caution and profit-taking. Technically, KAITO broke above key resistance at $0.5325, trading near $0.5794 and entering overbought territory with an RSI of 70.42. The outlook hinges on buyers defending the $0.5325 support level to potentially challenge the next resistance at $0.65; failure could see a return to the previous trading range.