Original|Odaily Planet Daily(@OdailyChina)
Author|Wenser(@wenser2010 )
The World Cup, 20 days in.
Prediction market trading volume keeps climbing, with huge wins and losses happening in turn. Previously, Odaily Planet Daily summarized cases of "big wins & terrible losses" since the World Cup started, and also detailed how to set up strategies and tools for following smart money.
Today, besides laughing at the "big smart money," we want to discuss whether classic losing cases have contrarian reference value.
Spain - Cape Verde Draw: Goalkeeper's 7 Amazing Saves, Whale Loses $1M Trying to Make $85K
40-year-old Cape Verde goalkeeper Vozinha panted as he watched his opponents on the field, body slightly hunched, ready to save any ball kicked his way.
For this goalkeeper valued at only €50k, many didn't fancy him or the Cape Verde island nation team before the match; after all, their opponent was World Cup top-tier powerhouse — Spain, whose star player Lamine Yamal alone is valued at €200M, ranking first on the World Cup player value list, 4000 times Vozinha's value; the total value of Spanish players is as high as €1.2B, also a pre-tournament favorite. La Liga includes a series of top clubs like Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atlético Madrid, with countless local stars.
But football isn't merely a game of value comparison; it's a sport of on-field competition.
For Cape Verde national team players, being on the World Cup stage, enjoying the fun of football and the adrenaline rush from competition is enough.(Odaily Planet Daily note: According to commentator Guan Zeyuan, Cape Verde, an Atlantic island nation with a total area of about 4000 sq km, holds football matches on each island to decide the winning team, eventually selecting the final squad for the World Cup, similar to domestic "Village BA" or "Super League" regional tournaments.)
During the match, Spain had 27 shots, 7 on target, but ultimately, all attacks were successfully neutralized by Vozinha and his teammates. With the referee's final whistle, the Spain vs Cape Verde match ended in a "0-0" draw. This upset result instantly wiped out many prediction market players.
Before kickoff, @betoor619 invested $1M to buy "Spain beats Cape Verde" at a 92-cent rate, considered by many a "prediction market easy money play," with some even expecting the match to be a "one-sided massacre ending with a big scoreline."
But the Cape Verde team, especially goalkeeper Vozinha, didn't accept that outcome. They were well-organized, compact in defense, aggressive in challenges, executing their defensive counter-attack strategy exceptionally well.
In the end, @betoor619 didn't make the expected $85K from the "easy money play," but instead lost his $1M principal.
This match might have been the start of frequent upsets and strong teams being held to draws by weaker teams in this World Cup, with many subsequent pre-tournament favorites drawing with little-known small or weak nations in group stages, making buying the draw the best choice in prediction markets.
Recommended reading: No Matter If You Understand Football, Buying the Draw Is the Best Strategy for This World Cup?
Portugal - DR Congo Draw: 41-year-old Ronaldo Past His Prime, Smart Money Loses Over $240K for a Lesson
June 18th, World Cup Group K, pre-match favorite Portugal faced DR Congo, making their World Cup debut.
According to FIFA data, as of June 10, 2026, Portugal's men's team ranks 7th, behind the Netherlands, with relatively prominent overall strength, especially with Cristiano Ronaldo—"5-time Champions League winner, 5-time Ballon d'Or winner, 6-time World Cup participant, all-time top scorer"—making many fans confident in Portugal's performance before the match. Many hoped Ronaldo would score, becoming the "first player in history to score in 6 consecutive World Cups," outdoing Messi.
On the other side, DR Congo ranks only 45th in FIFA rankings. This participation marks DR Congo's return to the World Cup stage after 52 years.
In player value comparison, Portugal's total value exceeds €1B, including 2 "€100M+ valued players" and 8 players valued over €40M. DR Congo's total value is about €150M, only one-seventh of Portugal's. Before the match, DR Congo expressed hope to "rewrite the history of humiliation, at least reach the knockout stage, advance to the round of 32."
Back to the match, on match day, Ronaldo started for Portugal, but ultimately had 3 shots, 0 on target; Portugal had 7 shots total, 1 on target, showing obvious lack of firepower in attack.
Although Portugal took the lead in under 7 minutes with a lightning goal from 19-year-old João Neves, in first-half stoppage time, when Portugal was most prone to negligence and letting guard down, DR Congo equalized at the death.
Similar to Cape Verde, DR Congo's defensive counter-attack was excellent, with tight marking; and three center-backs averaging over 185cm further limited Ronaldo's impact, putting immense pressure on Portugal's midfield and defense, ultimately missing a winning start.
In prediction markets, a certain smart money with a 49% win rate pre-match spent over $243K predicting "Portugal beats DR Congo", opening at an average of 76 cents, ending in a loss.
In today's concluded England vs DR Congo knockout match, DR Congo once took the lead with a defensive counter-attack goal, with England narrowly winning 2-1 thanks to Kane's brace, barely avoiding a second act of the "weak team drawing or even beating strong team" upset script.
Saudi Arabia vs Cape Verde Draw: Dumb Money Bets on Cape Verde Win, Ultimately Loses $80K
In World Cup match predictions, whenever you try to apply last time's experience, the trend reverses.
In earlier group stages, Cape Verde, relying on goalkeeper Vozinha and the team's strict defensive counter-attack strategy, successively defeated opponents and later drew with Uruguay.
Based on this, the "big smart" ones in prediction markets boldly predicted Cape Verde would win against Saudi Arabia before the match.
But ultimately, Cape Verde still relied on extremely resilient defensive style and unified strategy execution, drawing "0-0" with Saudi Arabia.
According to PPP prediction market tool monitoring, World Cup top contrarian address @Zzzz87 predicted wrong again, this address predicting Cape Verde beats Saudi Arabia lost another $80K. Previously, this address had lost $620K since the World Cup started, win rate dropping below 40%, typically with larger positions having lower win rates.
In the past week, @Zzzz87 reflected and changed approach, no longer obsessing over weak team upsets, instead switching to betting on strong teams to win outright. Indeed, as knockouts began, strong teams being overturned decreased. @Zzzz87 's "buy strong strategy" quickly worked, with profit ratios ranging from nearly 30% to close to 120%.
Therefore, although this address lost about $255K in the past month, profit in the past week reached about $269K.
Currently, this address holds multiple prediction events for matches like "Switzerland VS Algeria", "Spain VS Austria", "Portugal VS Croatia", "Argentina VS Cape Verde", with buy amounts ranging from a few thousand dollars to $36K. Results will be clear tomorrow.
The Ball is Round, Anything is Possible
Seeing many cases, is it the former "dumb contrarian" learning lessons to become "smart money," or the "top contrarian curse" striking again?
Hard to conclude, because some delete accounts and run, refusing to be observed by "survivorship bias," while others have mixed wins and losses, or hedge with multiple accounts.
Whether playing or predicting matches, the only certainty is "uncertainty."
The World Cup outcome isn't a team value contest, nor a comparison of national strength or training systems, and doesn't shift with the will or财力 of外围 participants. Whether following smart money or contrarian following dumb money, you need to watch the matches, adjusting flexibly while enjoying.
