Why Hasn't Bitcoin Made the Expected Surge? There Are Both Positive and Negative Data

Analytical company Glassnode reported that Bitcoin retreated to around $62,600 after failing to hold above $66,000. According to the company, weak spot market demand and defensive investor positions in derivatives increased selling pressure on the price, while the resilience of long-term investors, growing network activity, and renewed fund inflows into ETFs continued to support the market.

Glassnode's report stated that Bitcoin failed to sustain the recovery that began after breaking the $66,000 level and has pulled back again from the $65,000 mark. The company noted that current price movements reflect weakening momentum in the spot market, and continuing net selling pressure and low trading volume are keeping Bitcoin in a consolidation phase without significant breakout potential.

Although the total open interest in derivatives markets has decreased, funding rates for perpetual futures contracts have risen again. Despite some reduction in active selling volume, it was noted that investors in the options market maintain a cautious stance.

According to the report, the expansion of the 25 Delta skew indicator suggests increased investor demand for downside protection. The ongoing decline in speculative short positions also indicates that market risk appetite remains limited.

In contrast, a more positive picture has emerged on the spot market with Bitcoin ETFs. The recovery in both net cash inflows and trading volumes over the past week suggests that institutional investors have once again begun building Bitcoin positions through regulated investment instruments.

A noticeable surge in blockchain activity was also observed. The daily number of active addresses and the adjusted transaction volume exceeded the upper bound of Glassnode's statistical range, indicating a significant increase in Bitcoin network usage and economic activity. It was also noted that the limited growth in new capital inflows has eased the pressure created by capital outflows from the market.

An analysis of investor demographics showed that the ratio of short-term to long-term investors has historically remained near low levels. Glassnode stated that this suggests long-term Bitcoin holders have maintained strong conviction despite the price decline.

However, the overall market profitability level continues to decline. As the proportion of Bitcoin in profit approaches cyclical lows, the trend towards loss-cutting and risk reduction in investor consumer behavior is becoming increasingly evident.

Glassnode concluded that the Bitcoin market is currently in a transitional phase. While the stable stance of long-term investors, growing blockchain activity, and recovering ETF demand provide structural support, valuation pressure, insufficient spot demand, and defensive positions in derivative markets continue to limit risk appetite.

*This is not investment advice.