Report Analysis: What Is Coherent Planning as CPO Booms?
Title: Report Interpretation: What Moves Is Coherent Making Amid the CPO Boom?
Summary: JP Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee reiterates an Overweight rating on Coherent (COHR), citing undervalued growth potential across three core areas: data center optical transceivers, co-packaged optics (CPO) chips, and industrial lasers/thermal management.
COHR's 1.6T data center transceivers are in high demand, with pricing remaining firm. The rise of CPO is seen not as a threat but as a catalyst, creating higher demand for sophisticated optical components, an area where COHR holds a competitive edge with its comprehensive portfolio (lasers, isolators, VCSELs, thermoelectric coolers). Each CPO chip offers significantly greater revenue potential than traditional transceivers. Furthermore, its Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) technology targets a potential $4B market with reliability and power advantages.
The company is expanding its InP (Indium Phosphide) device capacity fourfold within two years, securing substrate supply and transitioning to more cost-effective 6-inch wafers. As one of only two major suppliers of high-quality pump lasers—currently in severe shortage—COHR can now move up the value chain from components to complete line cards/systems, boosting ASP over tenfold.
Gross margin targets (>42%) may be revised upward due to high-end product premiums, cost improvements from the wafer transition, and contributions from new high-margin products like CPO and OCS. Its efficient thermadite thermal material also offers long-term growth.
Industrial segment revenue grows at a steady 5-10%, supported by semiconductor equipment orders. Changes in Apple's Face ID protocol present a re-competition opportunity for 3D sensing.
Overall, Coherent is positioned as a key infrastructure provider, with AI-driven compute demand fueling the need for high-speed optical interconnectivity. Growth from CPO/OCS, stable industrial performance, and margin improvement support the bullish thesis.
*Disclaimer: This summary interprets a third-party analyst report from JP Morgan. It does not constitute investment advice.*
marsbit06/24 05:43
