# Пов'язані статті щодо Supply Disruption

Центр новин HTX надає останні статті та поглиблений аналіз на тему "Supply Disruption", що охоплює ринкові тренди, оновлення проєктів, технологічні розробки та регуляторну політику в криптоіндустрії.

Low Probability, High Impact: Citi Issues Nine Extreme Risk Warnings for Commodities in H2 2026

Citigroup Global Research has released a commodity tail risk report focusing on low-probability, high-impact scenarios for late 2026. The report argues that traditional supply-demand frameworks are now regularly disrupted by geopolitical, climate, and technological shocks. Nine key "wildcard" risks are identified: 1. **U.S.-Iran conflict** escalating to a persistent, multi-year disruption of Gulf oil production, potentially pushing crude above $150/bbl and retail gasoline above $6/gallon. 2. **Russia-Ukraine war escalation** triggering new restrictions on Russian energy exports, particularly impacting global natural gas and refined products markets more than crude oil. 3. **Aggressive stockpiling of critical minerals**, such as copper, potentially driving prices above $20,000/ton. 4. **Gold prices** potentially falling another 15-20% in the near term before potentially doubling to around $6,000/oz in the longer term. 5. **A record-strength El Niño** severely disrupting agricultural supplies, possibly pushing cocoa back above $10,000/ton. 6. **AI boom or bust** creating a two-way risk: a boom would boost demand for power-related commodities (electricity, gas, uranium, copper, aluminum), while a bust could cause a deflationary demand shock, though gold could benefit in either scenario. 7. **Renewed U.S.-China trade war** impacting American farm exports, potentially pushing corn below $4.20/bushel and soybeans below $10/bushel. 8. **Finalization of the Russia-China "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline** deal, which would drastically reduce China's LNG import needs post-2030, exacerbating a looming global LNG glut and pressuring prices towards $5-6/MMBtu. 9. **An extreme "Monroe Doctrine" scenario** where the U.S. blocks all oil exports from the Americas, causing a severe benchmark dislocation (high global prices like Brent above $100/bbl, but a steep discount for trapped American crude). The report advises investors to stress-test portfolios against these poorly priced extreme scenarios, as "once-in-a-decade" shocks have become more frequent.

marsbit07/29 06:52

Low Probability, High Impact: Citi Issues Nine Extreme Risk Warnings for Commodities in H2 2026

marsbit07/29 06:52

Trump’s 48-Hour Iran Warning Triggers Market Volatility Across Stocks, Oil and Crypto

President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and threatening to destroy key power facilities if not complied with. Iran responded by warning it could fully close the strait and attack energy and water infrastructure in the Gulf. Financial markets reacted strongly, with U.S. stock futures declining, oil prices rising, and gold initially dropping. Cryptocurrencies followed equities downward as investors grew cautious. Analysts warn oil could surge above $150 per barrel if the situation escalates, potentially causing broader market declines and energy supply disruptions. The situation remains tense with no active diplomatic talks, and global markets are closely monitoring developments.

TheNewsCrypto03/23 07:15

Trump’s 48-Hour Iran Warning Triggers Market Volatility Across Stocks, Oil and Crypto

TheNewsCrypto03/23 07:15

Goldman Sachs Interprets "How Long Will the Iran War Last": Markets Have Only Priced in "Inflation," Not Yet "Recession"

Goldman Sachs warns that markets have only priced in the "inflation shock" from the Iran conflict but have completely ignored the severe risk of a global "recession." The key bottleneck is the Strait of Hormuz, where oil flow has dropped 97% to just 600,000 barrels per day. Military convoys can restore at most 20% of normal oil flow, and the conflict is likely to persist as Iran views it as an existential struggle. Oil prices could surpass 2008 highs if disruptions last 60 days, with Brent potentially reaching $110/bbl in an extreme scenario. Every 10 oil price increase drags global GDP down by 0.1% and raises inflation by 0.2pp. A 60-day disruption could reduce global GDP by 0.9% and increase inflation by 1.7%. Markets remain overly optimistic about a quick resolution. If prolonged, the focus will shift from inflation to recession: equities would sell off, cyclical assets like copper and the AUD would fall, front-end yields would reverse their hawkish repricing, and the JPY would emerge as the ultimate safe-haven currency. The crisis hinges on Hormuz reopening—not military outcomes—and the timeline is likely longer than priced in.

marsbit03/23 02:48

Goldman Sachs Interprets "How Long Will the Iran War Last": Markets Have Only Priced in "Inflation," Not Yet "Recession"

marsbit03/23 02:48

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