# Пов'язані статті щодо Shorting

When the Bubble Comes, How to Short "Smartly"?

Title: When the Bubble Comes, How to "Smartly" Short? Author: Campbell (Macro Analyst) Summary: Amid the heated debate over whether the current AI-driven market is in a bubble, analysts are divided. While some, like Dan Niles and Paul Tudor Jones, argue that the AI boom has further to run, Michael Burry warns of similarities to the dot-com bubble. The author explores practical strategies for navigating and potentially shorting a bubble without being crushed by its momentum. Key challenges in shorting a bubble include the exponential risk from parabolic price increases and the high cost of options due to extreme volatility. Instead of directly shorting the bubbly asset, the author proposes three approaches: 1. **Find the "Wedge"**: Identify external factors that could pop the bubble, such as rising interest rates. By betting on trends that could undermine the bubble (e.g., inflation or higher rates), investors can hedge without timing the bubble's collapse. 2. **Short the "Victims"**: Target assets adjacent to the bubble that are highly vulnerable to its burst, such as over-leveraged companies or sectors with "negative convexity." These assets may have cheaper options and suffer disproportionately when the bubble stalls. 3. **Wait for Confirmation**: Exercise discipline and wait for clear signals of a breakdown, including deteriorating fundamentals, exhausted buying sentiment, and decisive breaks in trendlines. Only then should investors take substantial short positions. The author shares their recent actions, including shorting SPX and high-yield bonds while buying short-term put spreads, and emphasizes avoiding direct shorts on vertically rising assets. The core takeaway: Hedge, identify wedges, wait for confirmation, and only then commit heavily.

marsbit05/14 08:57

How Can an Average Person Identify if a Token Has a Whale Behind It in 10 Minutes?

This article argues that identifying whether a token has a "whale" (a large, controlling holder) is the wrong question, as all successful tokens have them. The key is determining the whale's current phase: accumulation, markup (pumping), distribution (dumping), or having already exited. It provides a framework using on-chain and off-chain signals to identify these phases. Key on-chain metrics include: analyzing linked wallets to find true concentration, not just top holders; checking if trading volume is real or fake based on volume/holder ratio; monitoring DEX liquidity pool changes; analyzing trade volume concentration and net buy volume; and comparing price action to holder growth rates to pinpoint the whale's phase. The core thesis is that whales are not a bug but a fundamental feature of the market; concentrated筹码 (chips/tokens) and capital are prerequisites for a pump. The structural disadvantage for retail is being "long-only"—entering at high prices with no safety net, making them vulnerable. The article proposes that decentralized shorting mechanisms could be a solution, allowing retail to profit from correctly identifying distribution phases and breaking the whale's monopoly on price control. However, shorting carries extreme risks like unlimited losses and being squeezed. It is framed not as a guarantee of profits but as a necessary tool for "symmetrical armament," allowing retail to participate in two-way betting and transition from being "prey" to a "hunter" on the playing field.

marsbit04/09 02:11

Bitcoin Lingers Below $70,000 As Resistance Holds Strong – Here’s What Whales Are Up To

Bitcoin remains below the $70,000 resistance level, signaling weakening market structure and a shift toward bearish sentiment. This has influenced whale activity, with large holders opening short positions amid fading bullish momentum, while retail investors continue buying long. Analyst Crypto Tice highlights this divergence as a significant signal, suggesting whales anticipate further downside. Additionally, over 21,700 BTC recently moved to exchanges, all sold at a loss, indicating potential panic selling. Historically, such capitulation often precedes a market bottom, suggesting Bitcoin may be nearing a local low despite current pressure.

bitcoinist03/30 20:12

Post-Mortem of the Venus THE Attack: How to Profit in a Fleeting Window?

Approximately two hours ago, Venus Protocol's THE token was exploited using a classic Mango Markets-style price manipulation attack. The attacker targeted THE, a low-liquidity collateral asset, by depositing it, borrowing other assets, and using those to buy more THE, artificially inflating its price. Once the time-weighted average oracle updated, the inflated price allowed further leveraged borrowing. To bypass THE's borrowing cap, the attacker performed a "donation attack" by transferring THE directly to the vTHE contract, increasing the recognized collateral value. After the first manipulation phase, THE's price stabilized around $0.50. The attacker attempted to further amplify gains by continuing to buy THE, but mounting sell pressure limited price increases and pushed their health factor near 1.0, risking liquidation. The collateral, nominally valued around $30M, had extremely low liquidity, making large-scale liquidation at inflated prices impossible. Recognizing the situation, the writer opened a short position on THE with high leverage, anticipating a price collapse due to overvaluation, illiquidity, and forced selling. After liquidation, THE price plummeted to ~$0.24, below its pre-attack level, resulting in a ~$15K profit for the writer. Venus Protocol was left with ~$2M in bad debt. The attacker likely gained little or lost funds, though may have profited from off-chain positions. The event highlights that nominal collateral value in DeFi does not equal realizable value during liquidity crises.

marsbit03/16 08:37

Altcoin interest falls: Could an Ethereum breakout spark altseason?

ambcrypto03/07 02:02

24H Hot Posts Overview: TA Made 100K U by 'Shorting Eggs' on Prediction Markets!

This 24-hour roundup covers key discussions from crypto influencers. One trader reportedly earned $100K by consistently shorting egg futures on Polymarket, with commentators highlighting the importance of discipline and market-specific expertise over complex models. In regulatory news, ZachXBT exposed alleged insider trading at Axiom exchange, sparking warnings about the risks of centralized platforms and comparisons of crypto to "online Myanmar." A technical thread detailed arbitrage strategies between Kalshi and Polymarket, including common pitfalls. Another topic explored the experimental use of AI trading bots, with mixed results. (Note: All content represents personal opinions from X platform and not investment advice.)

比推02/27 02:33

WLFI's Deletion Sparks Crash Speculation: Trust Crisis in a Bear Market

Amid a bearish market sentiment, the deletion of a tweet by Eric Trump, co-founder of World Liberty Financial (WLFI), triggered widespread speculation and panic. On February 23, Eric Trump retweeted and then deleted a post about Binance listing more USD1 trading pairs. This action led to a temporary depegging of USD1 to 0.9802 against USDT and a nearly 10% drop in WLFI’s price, though both later recovered. The incident fueled FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) on social media, with rumors suggesting Eric had purged all crypto-related tweets or that internal issues plagued the Trump family. WLFI quickly responded, claiming it was a coordinated attack where hackers breached multiple co-founders’ accounts, spread panic, and attempted to profit by shorting WLFI. They later clarified that only X accounts were compromised, not WLFI or USD1 contracts. However, skepticism arose. Observers noted that only one retweet was removed—not a mass deletion—and no significant shorting activity was detected. Some linked the event to an upcoming major investigation announcement by on-chain detective ZachXBT, though market data did not strongly tie it to WLFI. Critics also questioned WLFI’s narrative, suggesting the “hack” claim might be a cover-up or misdirection. The event highlights the crypto community’s heightened sensitivity and distrust during bear markets, where minor actions can spark exaggerated reactions and conspiracy theories.

比推02/24 15:15

SIREN’s breakout faces disbelief – Traders are heavily shorting the rally

SIREN has broken its prolonged resistance at $0.21, signaling potential for a further 42% rally toward $0.30, with the bullish outlook remaining intact as long as the price stays above this key level. Despite a 115% surge over the past week and strong trend momentum indicated by an ADX of 56.90, intraday traders are heavily shorting the asset. They have built $1.37 million in short-leveraged positions, betting against a sustained upward move. However, a break above $0.231 could trigger significant short liquidations. Trading volume has declined by 55%, reflecting market hesitation.

ambcrypto02/17 15:31

Memecore: Why M’s $2.58 target depends on breaking THIS level

Memecore (M) defied broader market conditions by staging a strong recovery, climbing from a key support level of $1.20 to a local high of $1.52. Trading at $1.50, it registered a 12.06% daily gain, with market capitalization reaching $2.2 billion. The rebound was driven by buyer accumulation after seller exhaustion, as indicated by rising buy pressure and strength metrics. Despite the price increase, futures market data revealed significant bearish sentiment. Open interest and volume rose, but the long/short ratio fell to 0.9, with Binance top traders at an extremely low 0.4, indicating aggressive short positioning. Technically, M flipped its EMA20 and was testing the EMA50 at $1.52. If this level is broken, the next key target is $2.58. However, if the futures bubble bursts, a decline toward $1.30 or even the critical $1.20 support is possible.

ambcrypto02/03 20:02

Housing Price "Shorting Tool" Emerges as Polymarket Launches Real Estate Prediction Market

Polymarket, a prediction market platform, has partnered with real estate data provider Parcl to launch a new prediction market for US housing prices. The collaboration will utilize Parcl’s daily housing price indices as a verifiable and transparent data source to settle market outcomes on Polymarket. Users can trade on whether prices in specific high-liquidity U.S. cities—such as New York, Miami, and San Francisco—will rise or fall over monthly, quarterly, or annual periods. All trading is done using USDC on the Polygon blockchain. This initiative effectively creates a “shorting tool” for real estate, allowing participants to hedge against or speculate on local housing market downturns without needing to buy or sell physical property. The move introduces a liquid, crypto-native trading layer for real estate price expectations—a market traditionally known for its illiquidity and high transaction costs. The launch has positively impacted Parcl’s native token PRCL, which saw a price increase of over 150% following the announcement.

marsbit01/06 03:45