# Пов'язані статті щодо Risk Assets

Центр новин HTX надає останні статті та поглиблений аналіз на тему "Risk Assets", що охоплює ринкові тренди, оновлення проєктів, технологічні розробки та регуляторну політику в криптоіндустрії.

Red Alert: Bank of Japan's 25bp Rate Hike Imminent, Are US Stocks and Crypto Set for a Repeat of the 2024 Flash Crash?

Japanese central bank likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.0% in June, its highest level since 1995, with market probability at 98%. This move, driven by persistent inflation risks from energy costs and a weak yen, risks triggering a "carry trade" unwind. Investors who borrowed cheap yen to invest in higher-yield assets like US stocks and crypto may be forced to sell, potentially causing significant volatility. An estimated $500 billion in yen-funded positions remains vulnerable. This could mirror the August 2024 flash crash, where a yen surge triggered a global stock sell-off and a sharp Bitcoin drop. High-valuation AI and tech stocks are particularly sensitive to tighter global liquidity and rising energy costs. Cryptocurrencies, as high-beta assets, face amplified risk from higher leverage costs and competing for scarcer market liquidity. Analysts warn of short-term pressure on risk assets, advising caution regarding leverage amid heightened volatility.

marsbit3 год тому

Red Alert: Bank of Japan's 25bp Rate Hike Imminent, Are US Stocks and Crypto Set for a Repeat of the 2024 Flash Crash?

marsbit3 год тому

Alarm Bells Ringing: BOJ's Imminent 25bp Rate Hike, a Repeat of the 2024-Style Flash Crash for US Stocks and Crypto?

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is highly expected to raise its short-term policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.0% at its June 15-16 meeting, marking the highest level since 1995. This imminent hike, driven by energy-induced inflation and a persistently weak yen, risks triggering a global market correction by forcing the unwinding of an estimated $500 billion in yen carry trades. As investors borrow cheap yen to fund investments in higher-yielding assets like U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies, a BoJ rate hike would increase funding costs and potentially strengthen the yen. This could force a rapid deleveraging cycle: investors would sell overseas assets, buy back yen to repay loans, and amplify selling pressure. A similar scenario in August 2024 caused a global flash crash, with Bitcoin plunging nearly $20,000 in a single day. High-valuation assets are particularly vulnerable. AI-driven tech stocks, sensitive to liquidity and financing costs, face pressure from rising energy expenses and potential regulatory shifts. For cryptocurrencies, already competing with AI for market liquidity, the tightening of global leverage poses a significant near-term risk. Analysts warn this liquidity shock could lead to sharp corrections in both equities and crypto, urging investors to exercise caution regarding leverage amid heightened volatility.

Odaily星球日报3 год тому

Alarm Bells Ringing: BOJ's Imminent 25bp Rate Hike, a Repeat of the 2024-Style Flash Crash for US Stocks and Crypto?

Odaily星球日报3 год тому

Bitcoin Bull Turn Hinges On US Debt Wall, Real Vision Says

Real Vision crypto analyst Jamie Coutts says Bitcoin's long-term technical setup is approaching attractive, accumulation-zone levels, suggesting a potential cycle bottom in Q2/Q3. However, he cautions that a major macroeconomic obstacle could delay a sustained bullish reversal: a looming US Treasury refinancing wall. In 2027, $3.67 trillion of government debt matures and must be refinanced at significantly higher interest rates. Coutts argues current market liquidity is insufficient to absorb this issuance smoothly, especially as capital continues rotating out of crypto and into AI-related equities and commodities since late 2025. This liquidity constraint, combined with a potential contraction of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, poses a risk to all risk assets, including Bitcoin. While Bitcoin may be the first to detect a future shift toward increased Fed liquidity, Coutts believes such a shift may only come after stress emerges in the Treasury market. Therefore, despite a positive technical structure, Bitcoin's next durable bull phase may hinge on navigating this significant macro refinancing challenge.

bitcoinist2 дні тому 02:01

Bitcoin Bull Turn Hinges On US Debt Wall, Real Vision Says

bitcoinist2 дні тому 02:01

There’s An FOMC Meeting Scheduled This Month, But Will The Fed Decision Affect Bitcoin?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on June 16-17, with markets widely expecting the Fed to maintain interest rates at their current level of 3.5-3.75%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 99.4% probability of rates remaining unchanged. The outcome of this meeting is anticipated to impact Bitcoin's price. If rates are held steady, Bitcoin's current market trajectory is likely to continue unchanged. Conversely, an unexpected rate hike could trigger bearish sentiment by reducing investor risk appetite and market liquidity, potentially leading to sell-offs. A rate cut, though currently considered improbable, would be the most bullish scenario, encouraging investment in risk assets like Bitcoin and potentially driving its price higher.

bitcoinist06/05 15:31

There’s An FOMC Meeting Scheduled This Month, But Will The Fed Decision Affect Bitcoin?

bitcoinist06/05 15:31

Investors Assess New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Monetary Policy Direction

Bitcoin remains under pressure, trading just below $78,000, as markets assess the monetary policy direction of new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. Despite his past support for Bitcoin and criticism of central bank digital currencies, his early tenure has seen a sharp rise in the 2-year US Treasury yield to 4.14%, a key indicator of future policy expectations. This move suggests markets anticipate a shift away from aggressive rate cuts, with futures pricing in a potential rate hike by December. Higher yields and borrowing costs typically challenge speculative assets like Bitcoin by diminishing their liquidity appeal. Analysts caution that while Warsh is seen as innovative, his regulatory approach could still pose headwinds for digital assets.

TheNewsCrypto05/25 10:55

Investors Assess New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Monetary Policy Direction

TheNewsCrypto05/25 10:55

BIT Research: After U.S.-China Summit, Markets Begin Repricing "Long-Term Competition"

The market is undergoing a macro repricing driven by geopolitics and policy expectations. Initial interpretations of the recent U.S.-China summit as a signal of eased tensions triggered a risk-on rally, boosting tech stocks and Bitcoin while weakening the dollar. However, as details emerged, this optimism faded due to a lack of concrete progress on tariffs, AI export controls, or key geopolitical issues like Taiwan and Iran. Inflation concerns have resurfaced, renewing selling pressure on bonds and precious metals. Longer-term, the summit underscored ongoing strategic competition: a marginal decline in dollar dominance, a push for diversified global reserve assets, AI and semiconductor supply chain restructuring, and intensified rivalry in frontier tech like low-earth orbit satellites. Bitcoin's price action mirrored high-beta tech stocks more than a structural hedge, highlighting its continued sensitivity to risk appetite and liquidity over traditional safe-haven characteristics. While the meeting yielded modest outcomes like a U.S. agricultural purchase pledge and continued dialogue mechanisms, it primarily reflects "managed competition." Structural tensions remain unresolved in areas like tech and geopolitics, affirming trends toward strategic decoupling and prolonged geopolitical risk. The key for markets is the broader repricing of global liquidity, real yields, and this enduring competitive landscape.

marsbit05/22 03:22

BIT Research: After U.S.-China Summit, Markets Begin Repricing "Long-Term Competition"

marsbit05/22 03:22

Bitcoin's $78,000 Support Faces Ultimate Test: With Soaring Treasury Yields and Inflation Pressure, the Door to $75,000 is Opening

Bitcoin has fallen below the $78,000 support level, now facing a critical test due to severe macro pressures. The price slid from above $81,000 to a low near $77,711, with the $77,700-$78,000 zone identified as the next key support. The primary headwinds are surging U.S. Treasury yields—with the 10-year approaching 4.6% and the 30-year surpassing 5.13%—and persistent inflation. April's CPI accelerated to 3.8%, while WTI oil prices climbed above $105. These factors increase the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield assets like Bitcoin and tighten the Fed's policy space. Crucially, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which previously provided a buffer, saw significant net outflows on two of the past three trading days, removing buying support when it was most needed. The technical outlook hinges on whether Bitcoin can hold above $77,700. A daily close below this level could open a path toward $76,500 and then the major $75,000 support. A recovery above $80,000 is needed to break the bearish pattern, with a close above $82,000 (the 200-day moving average) required to invalidate the breakdown. Failure to hold support could shift the narrative from a crypto correction to a broader, macro-driven risk asset deleveraging.

marsbit05/18 03:37

Bitcoin's $78,000 Support Faces Ultimate Test: With Soaring Treasury Yields and Inflation Pressure, the Door to $75,000 is Opening

marsbit05/18 03:37

Crypto traders alert! Why Trump’s weekend post could trigger liquidations on Monday

Crypto traders are on high alert as former President Trump's weekend social media post regarding a potential escalation with Iran could trigger significant market liquidations on Monday. The crypto market, already vulnerable, closed Q1 with a nearly 21% loss, extending a severe downturn. This decline has moved in lockstep with soaring oil prices, which surged nearly 70% in Q1 due to Middle East tensions. Trump's post, warning of a severe attack on Iran's infrastructure, adds a critical layer of uncertainty. With U.S. stock markets closed over the weekend, the full market reaction has been delayed. Analysts now anticipate a highly volatile session when markets reopen, with oil potentially surging toward $200 per barrel. This could spark a sharp sell-off in equities, which would severely impact the crypto market. Bitcoin's positioning index has already turned negative, indicating traders are betting on further downside. The market is trapped in a liquidity crunch, making it extremely sensitive to any catalyst. A major, liquidation-driven downturn is now likely as Monday's session begins.

ambcrypto04/04 07:08

Crypto traders alert! Why Trump’s weekend post could trigger liquidations on Monday

ambcrypto04/04 07:08

BIT Research: Escalating Geopolitical Conflicts, Why is Bitcoin Starting to Outperform Traditional Assets?

The market is undergoing a macro repricing phase dominated by escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Iran, which is increasing uncertainty around energy supply, inflation, and global growth. While initial market expectations leaned toward looser policy, rising conflict risks are prompting a reassessment of rate cut timelines and a potential shift toward more hawkish policies. In the initial phase, rising oil prices drove inflation expectations higher, tightening financial conditions and pressuring risk assets, including Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin demonstrated relative resilience due to its prior price correction, which limited passive selling pressure. Unlike gold, Bitcoin has no physical carry cost, giving it a comparative advantage in a high real-rate environment. As the shock persists, the narrative is transitioning from inflation concerns to growth worries, with weakening industrial metals like copper reflecting dampened demand. If the situation continues, a third policy response phase may emerge, where governments and central banks intervene with fiscal support or liquidity measures. At this stage, market focus would shift from inflation to liquidity expectations, historically a supportive environment for Bitcoin as a non-sovereign asset. Additionally, structural shifts in global capital flows—such as resource-exporting nations diversifying away from U.S. assets amid reserve neutrality concerns—are tightening global liquidity and raising long-term rates. Bitcoin’s performance is increasingly tied to both risk sentiment and its sensitivity to liquidity cycles. Once policy easing expectations rise, Bitcoin may strengthen further relative to traditional assets, which face dual pressure from rates and growth. The key for investors is to monitor the transition in macro narrative: from oil-driven inflation to growth constraints, and eventually to policy-led liquidity. Bitcoin, having already undergone significant adjustment, is positioned to show relative outperformance as the market shifts toward liquidity-driven pricing.

marsbit03/30 05:51

BIT Research: Escalating Geopolitical Conflicts, Why is Bitcoin Starting to Outperform Traditional Assets?

marsbit03/30 05:51

If U.S. Treasury Yields Soar Above 5%, Will Bitcoin Fall Below $50,000?

An article explores the potential impact of rising U.S. Treasury yields above 5% on Bitcoin's price, suggesting it could fall below $50,000. The analysis is prompted by the recent U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which has driven oil prices higher and fueled inflation fears, pushing bond yields up. Historically, prolonged oil-related conflicts lead to sustained yield increases and pressure on risk assets like stocks. Given Bitcoin's high correlation with the S&P 500, similar downward pressure is expected. Technical analysis indicates a bearish flag pattern for Bitcoin, with a break below it potentially leading to a drop to $50,000 or lower. Prediction markets also show a high probability of Bitcoin falling below $55,000 in 2026. However, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes notes that prolonged conflict might force the Fed to print more money, which could ultimately benefit Bitcoin.

marsbit03/25 09:36

If U.S. Treasury Yields Soar Above 5%, Will Bitcoin Fall Below $50,000?

marsbit03/25 09:36

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