# Пов'язані статті щодо Risk Asset

Центр новин HTX надає останні статті та поглиблений аналіз на тему "Risk Asset", що охоплює ринкові тренди, оновлення проєктів, технологічні розробки та регуляторну політику в криптоіндустрії.

Opinion: AI Bubble Bursts, Bitcoin and Other Risky Assets Are the First to Be Impacted

BIS Warns AI Investment Boom Could Trigger Market Stress, Impacting Bitcoin First The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warns that a potential bursting of the "AI bubble" could tighten liquidity and severely impact risk assets like Bitcoin in the near term. Major tech firms are projected to spend over $1 trillion on AI infrastructure in 2025-2026. The BIS cautions that if returns fail to meet expectations, a sudden withdrawal of financing could turn this investment boom into a prolonged bust, creating ripple effects across financial markets. While AI holds long-term economic promise, the current scale and speed of investment, coupled with intense competition and physical bottlenecks (e.g., semiconductors, power grids), mirror historical bubbles. The report highlights that the AI funding web—spanning corporate debt, private credit, and complex vendor agreements—makes systemic risks harder to see. A disappointment in AI adoption could transmit stress through this chain, widening credit spreads and pressuring weaker borrowers. For Bitcoin, the initial reaction to such a market shock would likely be defensive. As liquidity tightens, investors typically sell liquid assets first, and Bitcoin often trades in line with other risk assets during portfolio de-risking. Recent correlations, like Bitcoin's drop following a sharp decline in South Korea's stock market, support this view. However, the longer-term outcome for Bitcoin depends on the policy response. If an AI-driven credit crunch forces central banks to inject liquidity and ease policy eventually, it could reignite Bitcoin's narrative as a hedge against monetary debasement. Yet, traders betting on this outcome may first have to endure significant market volatility and potential price declines.

marsbit06/30 04:38

Opinion: AI Bubble Bursts, Bitcoin and Other Risky Assets Are the First to Be Impacted

marsbit06/30 04:38

Continuous Net Outflows from ETFs, Are Institutions Exiting?

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced approximately $6 billion in net outflows over the past six weeks, marking the longest consecutive weekly withdrawal streak since their launch in 2024. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) from BlackRock has been particularly affected, accounting for over 70% of recent outflows. On-chain analysis indicates that long-term Bitcoin holders (holding for over 155 days), who control about 83% of the circulating supply, remain steadfast. The selling pressure is primarily coming from allocators who entered through ETF brokerage accounts. This represents the first major collective capitulation since Bitcoin gained mainstream Wall Street recognition, driven more by risk-off portfolio adjustments than a fundamental rejection of the asset. Factors such as rising inflation, a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve policy, massive capital inflows into AI infrastructure, and attractive IPO opportunities have redirected speculative funds. Bitcoin, treated as a high-beta risk asset, was among the first to be sold. While the pace of outflows has slowed significantly—from $1.72 billion in early June to $226.8 million mid-month—the structural issue remains. IBIT's large size means its outflows alone exert substantial market pressure. With spot market volume thin, new capital inflows absent, and ETF buying muted, the market lacks sufficient buying support to absorb this selling. The coming sessions are critical. If IBIT outflows decelerate and Bitcoin reclaims $60,000, this phase could be seen as a healthy reset. However, if heavy IBIT redemptions resume and the price falls below $58,000, it would signal a more sustained institutional exit, requiring non-ETF buyers to shoulder the entire selling pressure alone. The ETF, while lowering entry barriers, has not removed Bitcoin's inherent volatility.

marsbit06/29 05:34

Continuous Net Outflows from ETFs, Are Institutions Exiting?

marsbit06/29 05:34

Why Bitcoin Still Acts Like A Risk Asset Despite Safe-Haven Claims

Bitcoin possesses inherent qualities of a safe-haven asset, such as being portable and censorship-resistant. However, it continues to trade like a risk asset, correlating with indices like the NASDAQ during periods of uncertainty. Analysts attribute this to its lack of widespread acceptance by large capital pools, a process that may take another decade. Currently, Bitcoin is showing technical weakness with a bearish market structure shift and a rejection from a monthly fair value gap, suggesting a higher probability of a breakdown and a potential move lower. The broader downside thesis remains intact unless BTC breaks out of its current pattern with strength.

bitcoinist04/26 14:02

Why Bitcoin Still Acts Like A Risk Asset Despite Safe-Haven Claims

bitcoinist04/26 14:02

Here’s Bitcoin’s Fate If The Strait Of Hormuz Remains Unsettled – Details

Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, could significantly impact Bitcoin and global markets. The Strait handles 20% of the world’s oil supply, and its disruption may lead to rising oil prices, higher inflation, and subsequent central bank interest rate hikes. In such conditions, investors tend to favor fiat currencies over volatile assets like Bitcoin, which is often viewed as a risk asset rather than a safe haven during geopolitical stress. If the Strait remains closed, Bitcoin may initially experience outflows. However, the long-term impact depends on broader financial factors, including global liquidity, policy responses, and market leverage. Traders should monitor derivative indicators like Open Interest and Funding Rates to assess market risk. Bitcoin currently trades around $71,600.

bitcoinist03/15 16:02

Here’s Bitcoin’s Fate If The Strait Of Hormuz Remains Unsettled – Details

bitcoinist03/15 16:02

On the Eve of the Bank of Japan's Interest Rate Hike, Why Did Bitcoin Fall First?

On December 15, Bitcoin fell over 5% to $85,616, while gold remained nearly unchanged. The drop was not due to crypto-specific news but was instead linked to expectations around the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) upcoming interest rate decision. The BOJ was widely expected to raise rates from 0.5% to 0.75% on December 19—its highest rate in 30 years. This triggered a unwind of the "yen carry trade," a strategy where investors borrow cheap yen to invest in higher-yielding assets like U.S. stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies. Higher Japanese interest rates reduce the profitability of this trade, forcing global funds to sell assets—including Bitcoin—to repay yen-denominated loans. Bitcoin, being highly liquid and volatile, is often among the first to be sold. Historically, BOJ rate hikes have correlated with significant Bitcoin declines. For example, after the July 2024 hike, BTC fell 23% in a week. This reaction underscores Bitcoin’s shifting identity: once considered "digital gold," it now behaves more like a high-risk asset correlated with tech stocks. Since the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, institutional investors have treated Bitcoin as part of a broader risk-asset portfolio, selling it alongside stocks during market stress. While the BOJ’s decision was largely anticipated, its wording could influence market volatility. If the bank signals further tightening, additional selling pressure may follow. However, some analysts believe the impact may be milder this time due to shifted market positioning and broader global liquidity conditions. In summary, Bitcoin’s decline ahead of the BOJ meeting reflects its increased sensitivity to global macro liquidity shifts. As institutional adoption grows, Bitcoin has become more integrated into traditional finance—gaining legitimacy but losing its earlier immunity to external monetary events.

marsbit12/17 07:20

On the Eve of the Bank of Japan's Interest Rate Hike, Why Did Bitcoin Fall First?