Bernstein: Failure of CLARITY Act Could Accelerate Crypto Regulation Development by SEC and CFTC
Analysts at Bernstein state that the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 is diminishing. They argue that its potential failure could, however, accelerate the SEC and CFTC's work on crypto-specific regulations under the Project Crypto initiative, as time for Senate approval before the congressional recess is nearly exhausted.
While a short-term negative market reaction is possible, Bernstein believes regulatory reform will not halt. Instead, the SEC and CFTC may expedite guidance on token classification, DeFi, self-custody rules, and potentially introduce a temporary "innovation exemption" for certain token offerings.
The firm also expects U.S. regulators to continue supporting tokenized real-world assets (RWA), perpetual futures for RWAs, and prediction markets, regardless of the bill's fate. Nevertheless, analysts view the potential failure as a disappointment, as the CLARITY Act would have provided long-term regulatory clarity and encouraged greater institutional investment.
The push for a vote before Congress's August recess, supported by Grayscale Investments, faces opposition from figures like New York Attorney General Letitia James, who argues the bill would hinder state-level law enforcement efforts against crypto fraud and advocates for stricter regulations.
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