# Пов'язані статті щодо Order Flow

Центр новин HTX надає останні статті та поглиблений аналіз на тему "Order Flow", що охоплює ринкові тренди, оновлення проєктів, технологічні розробки та регуляторну політику в криптоіндустрії.

Early Kalshi Employee: Whoever Controls the Traffic, Controls the Market

An early employee of Kalshi argues that in prediction markets, control over user traffic—not exchange infrastructure—is the primary source of power. The article analyzes how Robinhood, a dominant retail distributor, can redirect user orders between regulated exchanges like Kalshi and ForecastEx with no change in user experience. Key evidence includes a sudden shift of 35% of NBA game trading volume from Kalshi to ForecastEx in a single night, triggered by Robinhood. Similarly, weather markets saw ForecastEx capture over 60% of volume immediately after Robinhood began routing orders there, without affecting Kalshi’s baseline traffic. The piece also highlights how Robinhood’s distribution massively amplified demand for new products like parlays, which grew from zero to nearly 300 million contracts per week after Robinhood integration. The author admits to initially underestimating Robinhood’s incentive to vertically integrate by acquiring its own CFTC-regulated exchange—a move mirrored by competitor Underdog. In prediction markets, where users are retail and trade sizes small, liquidity depth is not a moat. The real leverage lies with who controls the flow of users.

marsbit03/25 16:18

Early Kalshi Employee: Whoever Controls the Traffic, Controls the Market

marsbit03/25 16:18

MORPHO surges 11% as buyers take control: Can $1.80 unlock a bigger breakout?

MORPHO surged 11.15% to above $1.75, with daily volume up 33% and market cap nearing $665M, signaling strong buyer interest. The price broke above the $1.42 neckline of a double-bottom pattern, turning it into support and indicating bullish structural improvement. Key resistance lies at $1.80; a breakout could target $2.20. RSI is at 69.87, approaching overbought but still supportive, while Parabolic SAR confirms upward momentum. Spot Taker CVD flipped to buy dominance, showing aggressive demand, and funding rates turned positive at 0.0025%, reflecting cautious long positioning. Sustained strength above $1.80 may lead to further gains, but rejection could trigger consolidation.

ambcrypto02/26 04:04

MORPHO surges 11% as buyers take control: Can $1.80 unlock a bigger breakout?

ambcrypto02/26 04:04

Advancing MM 1: Market Maker Inventory Quoting System

"Attack of the MM 1: Market Maker Inventory Quoting System" by Dave explores why altcoin prices often move against retail traders immediately after their purchases, debunking the myth of intentional manipulation by "market manipulators." The article explains that this phenomenon is not due to malicious intent but is a result of automated market maker (MM) systems using the Avellaneda-Stoikov model for inventory-based pricing and protection against toxic order flow. When retail traders execute large buy orders, MMs sell, leading to a short inventory exposure. To mitigate risk, MMs adjust their strategies in two ways: 1. **Quote Skew**: They lower prices to attract sellers and discourage further buys, aiming to replenish inventory and protect their short position. 2. **Spread Widening**: They widen bid-ask spreads to reduce transaction probability and earn more spread profit to offset potential losses. The core mechanism involves the "Reservation Price," calculated as Mid Price − γ⋅q (where q is inventory and γ is risk aversion). Large retail orders disrupt inventory balance, causing MMs to adjust prices dynamically. Retail traders often face this due to their concentrated, unconcealed, and unhedged orders, especially in low-liquidity altcoins where their trades significantly impact pricing. The article concludes with a practical tip: instead of executing large orders at once, retail traders can break them into smaller, staggered orders to exploit MM pricing adjustments, achieving better average entry prices. A follow-up will discuss toxic order flow and order book dynamics.

深潮12/28 04:12

Advancing MM 1: Market Maker Inventory Quoting System

深潮12/28 04:12

Attack on MM 2: Market Maker Order Book and Order Flow

"Attack of the MM 2: Market Maker Order Books and Order Flow" by Dave explores the dynamics of market making in crypto, focusing on the Limit Order Book (LOB) and order flow. The LOB is the market maker's battlefield, defined by depth, tick size, and the concept of price improvement—providing better prices than the current best bid/ask to create market value. Market makers profit from the bid-ask spread, which covers order processing costs, inventory risk (holding assets amid price fluctuations), and adverse selection risk (being exploited by informed "toxic" traders). The spread types include quoted, effective, and realized spread, with the latter factoring in future mid-prices to measure true profitability. Order flow involves managing incoming trades, with a focus on identifying "toxic flow" from informed traders who can cause losses. Market makers use metrics like VPIN (Volume-weighted Probability of Informed Trading) to detect one-sided pressure and respond by pulling quotes, widening spreads, or reducing order sizes to mitigate risk. The article hints at deeper institutional strategies in future installments.

深潮12/28 04:03

Attack on MM 2: Market Maker Order Book and Order Flow

深潮12/28 04:03

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