Exploring Bitcoin Valuation in 2026 from Macro and On-Chain Structural Perspectives
Tiger Research analyzes Bitcoin's valuation outlook for 2026 from macro and on-chain perspectives. Despite a 27% price drop in Q1, the macro environment remains supportive. Global M2 hit a record $13.44 trillion, but Chinese liquidity, which contributed over 60% of M2 growth, has limited access to Bitcoin markets. The Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, raising March CPI to 3.3% and narrowing the Fed's rate cut path. However, the easing direction remains intact. Bitcoin ETF flows turned positive in March after five months of outflows, and corporate accumulation continues.
On-chain metrics show a shift from undervaluation to early equilibrium. Key indicators like MVRV-Z and NUPL have exited panic zones. The critical resistance is at $78k, the long-term holder cost basis, while the key support is at $54k. Although transaction counts increased, active addresses and average transfer size declined, indicating superficial growth rather than real network expansion. BTCFi ecosystem growth has weakened, leading to a -10% adjustment in fundamental metrics.
The 12-month price target is set at $143k, based on a $132.5k neutral benchmark adjusted by -10% (fundamentals) and +20% (macro). This represents a 103% upside from current levels. Short-term catalysts include a break above $78k, sustained ETF inflows, and a Fed policy shift post-geopolitical de-escalation.
marsbit04/22 08:14
