If MSCI Removes MSTR, Will the Stock Price Actually Fall? Historical Backtesting Reveals a Surprising Answer
The article examines whether MSCI's potential removal of MicroStrategy (MSTR) from its index would actually cause a significant drop in its share price, based on historical backtesting.
MSCI index changes can trigger forced selling by passive funds, reducing liquidity and investor confidence. However, historical data from the November 2025 MSCI rebalancing shows that most of the price decline for removed stocks occurred during the pre-announcement anticipation phase (average drop of 24.5%), not after the official announcement (average drop of only 0.7%) or on the effective date. Some stocks even rebounded after removal.
MSTR has already fallen 51% from its October high, suggesting the market may have already priced in the risk of removal. Additionally, Nasdaq 100's recent decision to retain MSTR indicates strong fundamentals and liquidity. The core driver of MSTR’s price remains Bitcoin’s performance. If MSCI retains MSTR on January 15, it could be a positive surprise. The current setup may present an asymmetric risk-reward opportunity for MSTR.
marsbit12/15 03:04
