Continuous Net Outflows from ETFs, Are Institutions Exiting?
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced approximately $6 billion in net outflows over the past six weeks, marking the longest consecutive weekly withdrawal streak since their launch in 2024. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) from BlackRock has been particularly affected, accounting for over 70% of recent outflows.
On-chain analysis indicates that long-term Bitcoin holders (holding for over 155 days), who control about 83% of the circulating supply, remain steadfast. The selling pressure is primarily coming from allocators who entered through ETF brokerage accounts. This represents the first major collective capitulation since Bitcoin gained mainstream Wall Street recognition, driven more by risk-off portfolio adjustments than a fundamental rejection of the asset.
Factors such as rising inflation, a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve policy, massive capital inflows into AI infrastructure, and attractive IPO opportunities have redirected speculative funds. Bitcoin, treated as a high-beta risk asset, was among the first to be sold.
While the pace of outflows has slowed significantly—from $1.72 billion in early June to $226.8 million mid-month—the structural issue remains. IBIT's large size means its outflows alone exert substantial market pressure. With spot market volume thin, new capital inflows absent, and ETF buying muted, the market lacks sufficient buying support to absorb this selling.
The coming sessions are critical. If IBIT outflows decelerate and Bitcoin reclaims $60,000, this phase could be seen as a healthy reset. However, if heavy IBIT redemptions resume and the price falls below $58,000, it would signal a more sustained institutional exit, requiring non-ETF buyers to shoulder the entire selling pressure alone. The ETF, while lowering entry barriers, has not removed Bitcoin's inherent volatility.
marsbit06/29 05:34
