What Will Happen to Bitcoin if the Clarity Act (the 'Bull Market' Law) Is Not Passed Soon? A Prominent CIO Assesses...
Matt Hogan, Chief Investment Officer of crypto asset management firm Bitwise, stated that if the Clarity Act, aimed at establishing a regulatory framework for the crypto market in the U.S., is not passed this week, it could lead to a short-term downturn in the cryptocurrency market. In a memo, Hogan noted that the most positive market scenario if the bill fails would be investors quickly pricing in this outcome. He suggested that a significant drop in expectations for the bill's passage, particularly reflected in prediction markets like Polymarket, could help reduce regulatory uncertainty. Hogan explained that if the act fails, a sharp decline in prediction market odds to at least 10% would remove this uncertainty. While the market might wobble briefly, it would set up a better position for an upward trend in the fall. Hogan views immediate passage this week as the best scenario but unlikely, with Senate hearings more probable in September. The key, he emphasized, is for investors to accept that the Clarity Act won't pass in the short term, allowing the market to price this in, find a bottom, and eliminate the uncertainty.
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