BTC Needs to Soar 92% to Rescue Buyers from Last Year's $120k Entry; First Escape Exit at $72k
Bitcoin's price hovers around $64,000, leaving buyers who entered near the $123,000 peak in July 2025 down nearly 48%. These investors require a 92.2% rally just to break even. On-chain data from Glassnode highlights key resistance levels that will test the market's strength on any potential recovery path. The Short-Term Holder cost basis sits at approximately $72,200, while the Realized Market Mean is around $76,600. These levels represent the first major supply tests, as some holders may look to exit once losses narrow or profits are restored. BTC has traded below these benchmarks for about five months.
Glassnode reports that while long-term holder capitulation is cooling and buyers absorbed the June lows, a definitive market bottom remains unconfirmed. Downside risk still exists, with the bear market lower bound near $53,000 identified as residual risk. For a sustainable recovery, stronger demand must first absorb potential selling pressure at the $72,200 and $76,600 levels. Only after reclaiming these cost bases would targets like $100,000 or the $123,000 breakeven for last year's peak buyers become relevant. The market's ability to handle supply at these initial checkpoints will be crucial for any further upward movement.
marsbit07/17 07:00
