Goldman Sachs Bans It, Google Bans It Too: The Gray Zone of Prediction Markets Is Shrinking Fast
Goldman Sachs has updated its personal trading policy, prohibiting employees from trading event contracts on prediction markets involving specific companies (including whether Goldman itself might restructure or initiate acquisitions in a quarter), election outcomes, financial market performance (including Bitcoin prices), macroeconomic data, geopolitical events, and regulatory results for pending M&A deals. Sports and entertainment bets remain allowed. Violations can lead to dismissal or account closure, and the firm may reclaim profits over $200 or donate them to charity. This follows a CFTC case against a Google engineer who allegedly used non-public data to profit $1.2 million on Polymarket.
Simultaneously, Google's Chrome Web Store updated its policy, banning extensions that facilitate real-money trading on prediction market outcomes, effective August 1, 2026. While not affecting platforms' websites or mobile apps directly, this restricts a key user access channel.
These actions occur amid growing regulatory pressure on prediction markets. The CFTC is investigating Polymarket for alleged misconduct, and a consumer group has filed a lawsuit. Over 30 countries, including Argentina, have blocked access. Despite this, trading volume has hit record highs, and major investments continue, such as ICE's $2 billion stake in Polymarket.
The core debate remains whether prediction markets are financial instruments or gambling. CFTC argues for federal oversight as derivatives, while some states seek to regulate them under gambling laws. Multiple fronts—federal probes, political pressure, internal corporate bans, and platform restrictions—are narrowing the operational space for these markets.
Foresight News07/10 03:43
