How to Accurately Value Cryptocurrencies?
Evaluating cryptocurrencies requires moving beyond simplistic metrics like market cap divided by protocol revenue. The core framework proposed is Enterprise Value (EV) / Holder Income, which accounts for what token holders actually receive. Key adjustments include:
- **EV Calculation**: EV = Market Cap - Extractable Treasury Assets (discounted based on holder control, e.g., 0% for auto-burn, 100% if no claim exists).
- **Holder Income**: The portion of protocol revenue (after supply-side payments) that reaches holders via buybacks, burns, or distributions. The accrual Ratio (Holder Income/Protocol Revenue) varies widely (25%-100% in examples).
- **Token Costs**: Team incentives and operational costs from new token issuance are true business expenses and reduce Holder Income. Investor unlocks are market events, not operational costs.
Examples:
- HYPE: High accrual (100%) but significant team costs.
- PUMP: Low EV/Protocol Revenue but high "holder tax" from future unlocks.
- MAPLE: Large accrual discount (25.1% ratio).
- JUP: Clean structure with net-zero emissions.
This framework highlights the mispricing between protocol earnings and holder returns, emphasizing the need to measure actual value capture.
marsbit03/09 03:16
