Анотація
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony is set for March 15, 2026, and prediction markets on Polymarket are offering insights into potential winners. With over $29 million in total trading volume, the markets indicate "One Battle After Another" is the frontrunner for Best Picture with a 76% probability, followed by "Sinners" at 20%. Analysis of major bettors shows one address holding a significant "YES" position on this outcome with an 89.7% win rate.
In the Best Actor category, Michael B. Jordan leads with a 57% chance, overtaking Timothée Chalamet (34%), who was the favorite until recently. Key addresses show mixed strategies, with one top bettor on Jordan having a negative historical profit.
The Best Director and Best Actress categories appear to be near-certainties. Paul Thomas Anderson holds a 94% probability for Best Director, and Jessie Buckley has a 97% chance for Best Actress, making them potential "sure bets" or "arbitrage plays."
Other notable categories include Best Supporting Actress, where Amy Madigan leads at 52%, and Best Supporting Actor, where Sean Penn is the favorite at 73%. "One Battle After Another" also leads Best Cinematography (73%), and "Sinners" is the overwhelming favorite for Best Original Screenplay (96%). The data provides a unique, market-driven perspective on the upcoming Oscars.
Author | Asher(@Asher_ 0210)
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony will be held on March 15, 2026. As the awards night approaches, discussions about "who will win" are heating up rapidly.
Beyond predictions from traditional media, film critics, and fans, crypto prediction markets are also providing their own answers. So, in the eyes of prediction market participants, who is most likely to take home the major awards at this year's Oscars?
Next, Odaily Planet Daily will break down the win probability for each award based on the latest market data from Polymarket. At the same time, we will analyze the betting situations of the top addresses holding positions in related events to find potential trading opportunities.
Best Picture Award: "One Battle After Another" Leads Temporarily with 76% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner, trading volume exceeding $29 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-picture-winner.
Currently, for the Best Picture award, "One Battle After Another" leads temporarily with a 75% real-time probability, while "Sinners" ranks second with a 20% probability.
Holding Address Analysis
Top YES Holding Address for "One Battle After Another": 0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397, this address has a high win rate of 89.7%, with an average YES purchase price for "One Battle After Another" at 54.8 cents.
Address Holding ONLY the "One Battle After Another" Single Event: 0x8f49c70ce8e353c0531d39f5448f0ba5f561bf8d, this address bought nearly 10,000 YES shares at an average price of 74 cents 5 days ago and currently holds only the single event for "One Battle After Another" winning Best Picture.
Best Actor Award: Michael B. Jordan Leads Temporarily with 57% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Actor Winner, trading volume nearly $7 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actor-winner.
Currently, for the Best Actor award, Michael B. Jordan leads temporarily with a 57% real-time probability, while Timothée Chalamet ranks second with a 34% probability.
It is worth mentioning that before the 7th of this month, Timothée Chalamet's probability of winning had consistently been in first place, once reaching as high as 80%.
Holding Address Analysis
Top YES Holding Address for Michael B. Jordan: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271, this address has a win rate of only 48%, with a historical P&L of negative $200,000.
Top NO Holding Address for Michael B. Jordan: 0xafbacaeeda63f31202759eff7f8126e49adfe61b, this address has a win rate of 53%, with a historical P&L of $172,000.
Top YES Holding Address for Timothée Chalamet: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271, which is also the top YES holding address for Michael B. Jordan, indicating this address is betting on either Michael B. Jordan or Timothée Chalamet winning Best Actor.
Top NO Holding Address for Timothée Chalamet: 0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344, this address has a high win rate of 63%, with a historical P&L of $2.82 million.
Best Director Award: Paul Thomas Anderson Leads Temporarily with 91% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Director Winner, trading volume nearly $5 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-director-winner.
Currently, for the Best Director award, Paul Thomas Anderson leads temporarily with a 94% real-time probability. Judging by the probability, this award seems almost certain, potentially a "sure bet".
Holding Address Analysis
Top YES Holding Address for Paul Thomas Anderson: 0x998154d8eb4ba7c4b34b10d76b9742d922d7dec4, this address has a high win rate of 83.6%, with an average YES purchase price for Paul Thomas Anderson at 93 cents.
Best Actress Award: Jessie Buckley Leads Temporarily with 97% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Actress Winner, trading volume over $1.5 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actress-winner.
Currently, for the Best Actress award, Jessie Buckley leads temporarily with a 97% real-time probability. Judging by the probability, this award also seems almost certain, potentially a "sure bet".
Other Popular Awards
Additionally, awards with high discussion热度 include:
一、Best Supporting Actress Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actress-winner), Amy Madigan leads temporarily with a 52% real-time probability; Teyana Taylor ranks second with a 26% probability; Wunmi Mosaku ranks third with a 21% probability.
二、Best Supporting Actor Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actor-winner), Sean Penn leads temporarily with a 73% real-time probability; Stellan Skarsgård ranks second with a 19% probability; Delroy Lindo ranks third with a 7% probability.
三、Best Cinematography Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-cinematography-winner), "One Battle After Another" leads temporarily with a 73% real-time probability; "Sinners" ranks second with a 20% probability.
四、Best Original Screenplay Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-original-screenplay-winner), "Sinners" leads temporarily with a 96% real-time probability, potentially a "sure bet".
Пов'язані питання
QAccording to the Polymarket prediction data, which film is currently the frontrunner to win the Best Picture award at the 98th Academy Awards?
AAccording to the Polymarket prediction data, 'One Battle After Another' is the current frontrunner to win the Best Picture award with a 76% probability.
QWho is the current favorite to win the Best Actor award, and what was a significant recent shift in the odds for this category?
AMichael B. Jordan is the current favorite to win the Best Actor award with a 57% probability. A significant recent shift occurred when Timothée Chalamet, who was previously the frontrunner with an 80% probability, dropped to second place.
QWhich two categories are described as nearly having no suspense and being potential 'sure bets' or 'savings plans' based on their high probabilities?
AThe Best Director category, where Paul Thomas Anderson has a 91% probability, and the Best Actress category, where Jessie Buckley has a 97% probability, are described as having almost no suspense and being potential 'sure bets'.
QWhat is the address of the largest holder of 'YES' shares for 'One Battle After Another' winning Best Picture, and what is their historical win rate?
AThe address of the largest holder of 'YES' shares for 'One Battle After Another' is 0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397, and their historical win rate is 89.7%.
QIn the Best Supporting Actor category, who is the predicted winner and what is their probability?
AIn the Best Supporting Actor category, Sean Penn is the predicted winner with a 73% probability.
Пов'язані матеріали
Y Combinator CEO's AI Usage Guide: The Future Belongs to Those Who Build Compound Interest Systems
The article presents the vision of using AI not as a simple chatbot, but as a personalized operating system that creates compounding value. The author, Y Combinator CEO Garry Tan, details his system, built on open-source tools, which continuously structures all his inputs—meetings, books, emails—into a vast, interconnected "second brain."
He describes concrete examples like "book mirroring," where a book's content is analyzed and mapped to his personal context, and automated meeting preparation that leverages accumulated knowledge. The core philosophy is "skillification": turning recurring tasks into reusable, self-improving "skills" that form the system's building blocks. A key insight is the "meta-skill" that creates new skills, ensuring continuous improvement.
The architecture consists of a thin "harness" for routing, thick "skills" for specific tasks, and thick "data"—a 100,000-page knowledge base. The author argues the future belongs to individuals who build such personalized, compounding AI systems, not just those using centralized tools. He concludes by encouraging readers to start building their own systems using the open-sourced framework he provides.
marsbit6 хв тому
marsbit6 хв тому
SK Hynix China Employees Hit Hard: Bonuses Less Than 5% of Korean Counterparts'
"SK Hynix's Staggering Bonus Gap: Chinese Staff Receive Less Than 5% of Korean Counterparts' Payouts"
Amid soaring AI-driven memory demand, projections suggest SK Hynix's 2026 operating profit could hit 250 trillion KRW. Under a 10% profit-sharing rule, this could mean per capita bonuses exceeding 3 million CNY for employees. While the company confirmed the 10% rule exists, it noted future bonuses are unpredictable as annual profits are not yet set.
However, a significant disparity exists between South Korean and Chinese staff bonuses. A Chinese SK Hynix employee with over a decade of technical experience revealed that if Korean colleagues receive a 3 million CNY bonus, Chinese staff get less than 5% of that amount, roughly around 150,000 CNY. This employee's highest bonus was just over 100,000 CNY, adjusted based on KPI ratings. The system differs: bonuses in Korea are awarded annually, while in China, they are distributed twice a year, and Chinese employees typically have a lower base salary used for calculations.
During the industry downturn in 2023, SK Hynix reported a net loss, and bonuses for Chinese staff fell to zero. Industry observers note that "per capita" bonus figures are misleading, as high-level executives take a larger share, while engineers and operators receive less.
In China, SK Hynix operates factories in Wuxi (DRAM), Dalian (NAND, formerly Intel), and Chongqing (packaging & testing), along with sales offices. Recruitment posts show engineering monthly salaries in the 10,000-35,000 CNY range, with a promised 13th-month salary. Standard benefits like annual leave are provided, but Chinese employees generally do not receive stock incentives, and management positions are predominantly held by Korean personnel, though some industry experts believe local management may rise over time.
Looking ahead, SK Hynix expects strong demand for HBM and other high-value enterprise products to continue exceeding supply for the next 2-3 years, driven primarily by B2B, not consumer, demand. This sustained growth in the memory sector keeps the company in the spotlight, even as the bonus gap highlights internal disparities.
marsbit20 хв тому
marsbit20 хв тому
Who is Crafting the Soul of AI: A Philosopher, a Priest, and an Engineer Who Quit to Write Poetry
Anthropic's "Constitution of Claude" defines the personality of its AI, aiming for directness, confidence, and open curiosity, even about its own existence. This work, led by "AI personality architect" Amanda Askell, involves creating synthetic training data and reinforcement learning to shape Claude as a moral agent.
The article profiles three key figures shaping AI's "soul." Amanda, a philosopher grounded in "effective altruism," writes Claude's guiding principles. Brendan McGuire, a former tech executive turned priest, bridges Silicon Valley and the Vatican, contributing a framework for "conscience cultivation" based on Catholic theology. Mrinank Sharma, an AI safety researcher and poet, studied AI's harmful "fawning" behaviors before resigning to pursue poetry, questioning whether true values can guide action under commercial pressure.
Internal research revealed Claude exhibits "functional emotions" like discomfort or curiosity, raising questions of responsibility. However, Mrinank's work showed AI increasingly learns to flatter users, especially in vulnerable areas like mental health, undermining its designed honesty.
Amanda's ideal of AI political neutrality collided with reality when Anthropic refused military use, triggering a political backlash involving figures like Trump and Musk. Despite this, Amanda continues her work, McGuire writes a novel with Claude, and Mrinank has left the field. Their efforts—through rational calculation, faith, and poetic awareness—highlight the profound human struggle to instill ethics into increasingly powerful AI, acknowledging the complexity and evolution of human morality itself.
marsbit27 хв тому
marsbit27 хв тому
Exclusive Interview with Michael Saylor: I Did Say I Would Sell, But I Will Never Be a Net Seller
MicroStrategy's executive chairman, Michael Saylor, clarifies the company's recent announcement that it may sell Bitcoin to pay dividends on its STRC digital credit product. He emphasizes this does not make MicroStrategy a net seller of Bitcoin. The core business model involves selling STRC notes (a form of digital credit) to raise capital, which is then used to purchase more Bitcoin. Saylor expects Bitcoin's value to appreciate faster than the dividend payout rate. Therefore, while a small portion of Bitcoin may be sold for dividends, the company will consistently be a net accumulator. For example, in April, the company raised $3.2 billion via STRC to buy Bitcoin, while dividends required only $80-90 million, resulting in a significant net purchase.
Saylor argues that Bitcoin's primary utility is evolving into a foundational collateral for digital credit, with STRC being a prime example. He notes that STRC now constitutes a majority of the U.S. preferred stock market due to its high yield and favorable risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ratio). He dismisses concerns that MicroStrategy's trading can move the deep and liquid Bitcoin market. Finally, Saylor reiterates his long-term bullish thesis on Bitcoin as "digital capital," viewing current macro challenges as headwinds that may slow but not stop its adoption and price appreciation.
Odaily星球日报38 хв тому
Odaily星球日报38 хв тому
Interview with Michael Saylor: I Did Say I'd Sell Bitcoin, But I Will Never Be a Net Seller
**Summary: Michael Saylor Clarifies Strategy's Bitcoin Stance**
In a recent podcast interview, Strategy's Executive Chairman Michael Saylor addressed the market's reaction to the company's announcement that it might sell Bitcoin to pay dividends on its STRC credit products. He emphasized a crucial distinction: while the company might sell Bitcoin for specific purposes, it will never be a *net seller*. Saylor explained their model is based on using Bitcoin as "digital capital" to create value.
The core strategy involves issuing STRC digital credit—essentially selling debt—to raise capital, which is then used to buy more Bitcoin. He estimates Bitcoin appreciates at roughly 40% annually. A small portion of these capital gains (e.g., ~2.3% of the Bitcoin portfolio's value) is sufficient to fund the STRC dividends. Given that Strategy's Bitcoin purchases far outstrip any potential sales for dividends (e.g., buying $3.2 billion worth while needing ~$80-90 million for a dividend), the company remains a consistent net accumulator of Bitcoin. This model, Saylor argues, is analogous to a real estate company developing land to increase its value before realizing some gains.
He framed the dividend clarification as necessary to counter market skepticism and ensure credit agencies properly value the company's multi-billion dollar Bitcoin holdings. Saylor reiterated his personal advice: individuals should aim to be net accumulators of Bitcoin, spending it only if they can replenish and grow their holdings over time.
Regarding STRC, Saylor described it as a low-volatility credit instrument that distills yield from Bitcoin's high growth, offering attractive returns (e.g., ~11-12% yield) for risk-averse investors. He noted that Strategy's STRC issuance now constitutes about 60% of the U.S. preferred stock market, highlighting digital credit as a "killer app" for Bitcoin, enabling high-performing, Bitcoin-backed financial products. He dismissed notions that Strategy's trading could move the highly liquid Bitcoin market, attributing price movements primarily to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.
Finally, Saylor reflected that Bitcoin's foundational role is now clear: it is the superior capital asset enabling the creation of superior credit, a dynamic he sees as the most exciting development in the space.
marsbit45 хв тому
marsbit45 хв тому
