Author: Haotian
After recently having in-depth discussions with several experienced on-chain players, we have reached a high degree of consensus on the survival rules of the current cycle. The market has completely shifted from 'listening to stories and speculating on expectations' to 'looking at cash flow and verifying real-world adoption.' Below are some crypto trading insights (for reference only):
1) Prioritize assets with genuine value capture capabilities.
In a bull market, the market is willing to pay for stories and expectations, but in a bear market, it only cares about proven cash flow and buyback/burn records. The real 'get-out-of-jail-free card' this cycle is a protocol's ability to generate sustainable fees and directly return those fees to token holders through mechanisms like buybacks, burns, or dividends. For example, recent strong performers include launchpad concept tokens like $UNI, $PUMP, $PONS, as well as this cycle's buyback champion, $HYPE;
2) Only choose projects where Product-Market Fit (PMF) has been achieved and a complete closed loop is formed.
Because the next cycle will likely focus on only two major narratives related to 'asset tokenization' and the 'Agentic Economy' (Perps, prediction markets, stablecoins, payments), market preference will shift from favoring technical roadmaps to verifying practical utility and adoption. Projects without real users, a real transaction closed loop, or real revenue will be quickly filtered out. Following this logic, concept tokens like $ONDO, $VVV, $VIRTUAL are examples, with a focus on metrics like actual AUM, trading volume, and fee generation capabilities;
3) Choose assets with strong 'consensus'.
We have to admit that the only thing that has truly stood the test of time across multiple crypto cycles is two words: 'consensus.' Please note, this consensus refers to market-naturally fermented, cross-cycle capable consensus. Do not mistake the so-called 'consensus' artificially manufactured by an xxx reply to a tweet or an xxx industrial assembly line. Real potential lies in those older assets that newcomers completely fail to understand, yet consistently maintain decent liquidity and survive well. For example, old cult meme tokens like $DOGE, $PEPE, $PEOPLE, or leading assets in various niche sectors like $ZEC, $TAO, etc. They have weathered multiple bull and bear markets, possess strong organic community vitality, and are easily targeted by major funds for repeated trading rotations;
4) Try to avoid pure VC-backed coins as much as possible.
If I say altcoins are dead, you might still argue using financial cycle theories. But if I say VC coins are dead, basically no one would disagree. Because VC coins, characterized by high Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV), low circulating supply, and continuous large-scale unlocks, can only rely on pre- and post-TGE airdrop hype for momentum. If such projects lack value capture capabilities, they inevitably face insufficient follow-up development momentum and the awkward situation of unlocking leading to sell-offs. This is the fundamental reason for the current cycle's 'bull not going crazy, bear going deep' phenomenon. With a massive wave of VC coins awaiting unlock and sell-offs, how can retail investors dare to touch such tokens?
Note: The above is merely a summary of personal discussions with friends, and the mentioned tokens are for illustrative purposes only, not constituting investment advice.
