Prominent cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen, in his latest analytical video, assessed recent events and historical cycles in the Bitcoin market. Noting that Bitcoin is trading in the range of $64,000 to $65,000, Cowen stated that market dynamics and investor interest show similarities to past cycles, suggesting that the upcoming period marks a critical turning point.
Cowen pointed out that public interest and investor enthusiasm for the cryptocurrency market have significantly declined. He stated that social risk metrics have dropped to a level of 0.2, which is significantly lower than levels seen four years ago. Cowen added that market volatility has decreased substantially, and a sense of distrust prevails among investors, noting that the current situation strongly resembles periods marking the end of bear markets observed in 2018 and 2022.
Cowen stated that historical data shows Bitcoin markets typically reach a bottom during the summer months, followed by a period of stagnation with low volatility, suggesting that a major move may occur in the final quarter of the year. He noted that on-chain indicators, such as the MVRV Z-Score, have not yet fallen below the zero level signaling a bottom, and that it is premature to declare that the market has truly reached a bottom.
According to the analyst, an event capable of shaking the market and triggering a final wave of decline could occur in the coming weeks. Cowen claims that such an event would bring investors back to the market and pave the way for a new bull cycle, predicting October as the most likely period for the bottom to be reached. However, he also noted that September or November are also possible, and advised cryptocurrency users to be cautious and prepared for a decisive moment in the market.
*This is not investment advice.
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