Crypto ETPs could see a flood of liquidations by 2027: Analyst

cointelegraphОпубліковано о 2025-12-18Востаннє оновлено о 2025-12-18

Анотація

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart predicts that while over 100 crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) could launch in 2026, a significant number will face liquidation by 2027 due to insufficient demand and low assets under management. This follows a trend of ETF closures, with 244 shutting down in the U.S. in 2023 alone. The anticipated surge in approvals is linked to the SEC's new generic listing standards, which streamline the process. Despite the success of major spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, which have attracted tens of billions in inflows, more speculative products, including those tracking tokens like Solana, have seen smaller inflows, and some, such as two ARK 21Shares ETFs, have already been liquidated this year.

More than 100 crypto exchange-traded products are likely to hit the market in 2026, but many of them will quickly be shuttered due to a lack of demand, an analyst says.

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart said on Wednesday that he agreed with a 2026 prediction from crypto asset manager Bitwise that over 100 crypto ETFs would launch, but said many wouldn’t last.

“We’re going to see a lot of liquidations in crypto ETP products. Might happen at [the] tail end of 2026 but likely by the end of 2027,” Seyffart said, adding that over 126 ETP applications are currently awaiting an outcome from the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

“Issuers are throwing A LOT of product at the wall.”

Last year, a total of 622 ETFs closed down, including over 189 in the US, The Daily Upside noted last month. Morningstar reported in January 2024 that the 244 ETFs that closed in the US in 2023 had an average age of 5.4 years.

Source: James Seyffart

Most of these investment products shut down because they failed to attract sufficient inflows, resulting in low assets under management.

Several crypto ETPs have already been liquidated this year, the most noteworthy were the ARK 21Shares Active Bitcoin Ethereum Strategy ETF (ARKY) and ARK 21Shares Active On‐Chain Bitcoin Strategy ETF (ARKC).

SEC’s listing standards to spur mass approvals

Industry analysts expect an explosion in the number of crypto ETPs approved in 2026 under the SEC’s new generic listing standards, which no longer require that each application be assessed on a case-by-case basis.

Even before the SEC’s generic listing standards came into effect in September, asset managers had filed to launch ETFs tied to increasingly speculative tokens, such as Melania Trump‘s memecoin.

ETFs tracking Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP) launched with relative success this year, expanding from the Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs that launched in 2024.

Related: Bitcoin institutional buys flip new supply for the first time in 6 weeks

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have accumulated $57.6 billion worth of inflows since launching in January 2024, while spot Ether ETFs have amassed $12.6 billion since July 2024, Farside Investors data shows.

Meanwhile, spot Solana ETFs from Bitwise, VanEck, Fidelity, 21Shares, Franklin Templeton, and Grayscale have seen $725 million since late October.

Magazine: Quantum attacking Bitcoin would be a waste of time: Kevin O’Leary

Пов'язані матеріали

Will the Next Crypto Bull Run Start with On-Chain Trading of SpaceX?

This article presents a scenario-based forecast for the crypto industry from 2026 to 2029, arguing that the next major cycle will be driven not by technological narratives but by legal access to real-world assets. The author predicts that by mid-2026, pre-IPO perpetual contracts for top private companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic on platforms like Hyperliquid will become the primary gateway for accessing quality assets, as most crypto-native tokens fail to capture real value. The much-hyped AI x Crypto intersection largely fails except for prediction markets, which thrive on betting on AI model supremacy. By 2027, public blockchain foundations are forced to choose between catering to retail speculation or building compliant infrastructure for institutions, with many opting for the latter. Growth in stablecoins and tokenized private credit/equity hits a "triple ceiling" due to regulatory and political uncertainty rather than market demand. The pivotal shift is forecast for 2028. A major liquidation event in pre-IPO perpetuals exposes the structural flaw of synthetic markets lacking a real underlying asset anchor. In response, regulatory changes finally allow the public solicitation of private securities resales to verified accredited investors. This creates a legitimate secondary market for real company equity, which then becomes the core asset class of the new bull market, relegating synthetic perps to a niche role. By 2029, the industry becomes "boring" but foundational. Tokens without claims on real cash flows or assets cease trading. Stablecoin growth is steady but politically capped. Crypto infrastructure fades from view as it gets absorbed into traditional finance backends. The article's central thesis is that the key bottleneck for crypto's next phase is legal and regulatory channels for real asset ownership, not technology.

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**Summary: The Value Distribution of Stablecoins** The article argues that stablecoins are evolving from mere trading tools into broader channels for dollar access. It divides the stablecoin ecosystem into four layers to analyze how value is distributed: 1. **Issuance Layer:** Mints stablecoins, holds reserve assets, and captures the spread between reserve yield and user costs (e.g., Tether, Circle). This layer currently earns the largest profit margin. 2. **Infrastructure Layer:** Connects stablecoins to the traditional financial system, handling fiat on/off-ramps, banking integration, compliance (KYC/AML), and asset management (e.g., Bridge, BVNK). This is the "unglamorous" but critical work, building the essential bridges between crypto and real-world finance. 3. **Acquiring/Distribution Layer:** Integrates stablecoins into merchant systems, manages payment flows, and provides enterprise financial software (e.g., Stripe, Coinbase). They act as the access point for businesses. 4. **Application Layer:** The end-users and businesses that ultimately use stablecoins for payments, settlements, or as a store of value. They benefit from convenience but have little pricing power. The core thesis is that while the issuance layer currently dominates profits, the often-overlooked **infrastructure layer holds significant long-term potential**. The real challenge and barrier to mass adoption is not the on-chain transfer of stablecoins (which is simple), but the complex "last mile" integration into existing business workflows, banking systems, and regulatory frameworks across different countries. Companies in this layer are currently in a "land grab" phase, investing heavily to build networks, secure bank partnerships, and establish compliance pathways. While their position is currently pressured by the profitable issuers above and distribution platforms below, the article suggests that if stablecoins become a default financial rail for businesses, the infrastructure providers who have done the hard work of integration will ultimately gain strong pricing power and become entrenched, essential players.

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The Value Distribution of Stablecoins

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The Value Distribution of Stablecoins

The Value Distribution of Stablecoins The article argues that stablecoins are evolving from a mere trading tool into a broad "dollar channel." It analyzes the industry's value chain through four layers: 1. **Issuance Layer (e.g., Tether, Circle):** The top layer that mints stablecoins, holds reserve assets, and captures the thickest interest rate spread. 2. **Infrastructure Layer (e.g., Bridge, BVNK):** Connects stablecoins to the traditional financial system, handling critical but complex "dirty work" like fiat on/off-ramps, banking integration, compliance (KYC/AML), and cross-border settlement. 3. **Acquiring/Distribution Layer (e.g., Stripe, Coinbase):** Embeds stablecoins into merchant systems, manages payment flows, and integrates with enterprise software. 4. **Application Layer:** End-users and businesses that ultimately use stablecoins for payments, settlement, or storing value. The author posits that while the issuance layer currently captures the most profit, the most overlooked and potentially critical layer is infrastructure. The core challenge for stablecoin adoption isn't the on-chain transfer (which is simple), but bridging the gap between blockchain and the real-world financial system. This involves solving practical problems for businesses: fiat conversion, reconciliation, tax handling, and user onboarding. Infrastructure companies are currently in a difficult "land-grab" phase—building networks, securing banking relationships, and achieving compliance country-by-country. They face pressure from both the profitable issuance layer above and distribution platforms below. However, the author suggests this layer is building a crucial moat. Once stablecoins become a default business rail, the infrastructure players who have done the hard work of integration may gain significant, durable value and pricing power.

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