- Bitcoin is stuck near $63,513 and is accumulating liquidity around $62,484.
- Ethereum did not reach $2000 and remains inside the 4H FVG.
- DXY broke through support at 99.475, opening the path to lower inefficiency zones.
- FOMC minutes, PMI data, and positioning ahead of Jackson Hole will be the main triggers this week.
Disclaimer: This material is not financial advice or a call to action. The presented analysis is the private opinion of its author. Incrypted is not responsible for readers' investment decisions.
Market Analysis — Prolonged Consolidation, Liquidity Shortage, and Positioning Ahead of Jackson Hole
The past trading week did not bring the expected resolutions. Despite a busy macroeconomic backdrop and constant news injections regarding the Middle East, major crypto assets followed conservative sideways scenarios.
Inflation statistics predictably matched consensus forecasts and were completely ignored by market participants. We analyze the technical picture and development vectors for the main assets in detail.
Bitcoin — Pool Accumulation and Threat of Manipulation
The chart has stalled around $63,513, showing almost no movement over five days. The current structure creates extreme tension: below us, at the $62,484 level, a third series of equal lows (EQL) has formed, converging at the same point with the pWL. Liquidity continues to accumulate, and the longer the market maker leaves this pool untouched, the higher the risk of an aggressive sell-off.
Above, price dynamics are restrained by an unfilled 4H FVG ($64,000-$65,000) — it remains the main barrier of the week. Higher up are pWH ($65,373), pMH ($66,924), and the old target at $67,255. If the sideways movement breaks to the downside, price will meet pools in the 1H FVG zones ($60,000-$61,000), 4H FVG ($59,000-$60,000), and at pML ($57,758).
Current Scenarios
Scenario A — Retest of the Imbalance and Cascade Breakdown Downwards
Price enters the 4H FVG zone $64,000-$65,000, notes buyer weakness, and reverses. Then comes what the market has been expecting for several weeks: a break of the $62,484 mark without a return and a cascade drop to $60,000-$61,000 and below.
Under thin August market conditions, a fall unfolds significantly faster than a rise. Invalidation — an immediate buyback into the body of the range within one or two candles.
Scenario B — Impulse Breakout and Assault on Resistances
The asset, on volume, slices through the 4H FVG, tests its upper boundary, and heads towards $65,373. Confirmed consolidation above PWH opens a direct path to $66,924 and $67,255.
The determining factor will be price behavior upon returning to the $64,000-$65,000 block — it should act as reliable support.
Scenario C — Stop-Hunt and Reversal Upwards (Priority)
The most logical maneuver for large capital is a sharp break of $62,484 to take liquidity from early longs operating from the edge of the range, followed by a powerful impulse into the upper imbalance.
The key aspect is speed. A quick price return confirms buyer strength.
Ethereum — Obstacle at $2000 and Divergence with ETF
The main altcoin spent the week in a similar stupor. The expected test of the round $2000 mark did not materialize. The market did not allow clean scenarios to play out: EQLs from below remained untouched, and the upward impulse choked at $1930.
The asset is literally stuck inside a 4H FVG, which currently acts as a zone of equilibrium. Pressure from above comes from resistance PWH $1931.50, behind which lies a dense cluster of liquidations 1925-1950, PMH $1982, and an hourly imbalance under $2000.
Support below is held by PWL $1852.22 and August EQLs. Below that lies a void down to the 4H FVG at $1802.46, a break of which opens the path to $1665-$1685.
Against the backdrop of chart stagnation, the relative strength of spot ETFs stands out: Ethereum funds have attracted capital for the fifth consecutive week, while Bitcoin recorded outflows of nearly $390 million last week. Meanwhile, the $ETH/$BTC pair is approaching 0.03.
However, without converting this strength into dollar value, the risk of a synchronous major dump remains.
Current Scenarios
Scenario A — Genuine Breakout and Consolidation
Accumulation within the current imbalance followed by a move through $1931.50 and entry into the short cluster $1925-$1950. The main goal is to consolidate above PWH.
Without holding this level upon retest, the move will be a false breakout.
Scenario B — Deep Liquidity Grab from Below
Break of support at $1852 and collection of equal lows along with "easy longs." A dip to $1802.46 is expected, followed by a powerful reversal upwards.
The validity of the scenario is confirmed only by a lightning-fast price return to the original range.
Scenario C — False Breakout and Cascade Dump
The most painful option: the asset liquidates shorts in the $1931-$1950 zone, lures the crowd into breakout positions, then sharply reverses and cuts through the entire chart — through PWL and EQL straight to $1780-$1800.
Fundamental Triggers and Trading Plan
- FOMC minutes on Thursday, August 20th. The document is retrospective, but any signs of a split within the committee could prompt a rapid reassessment of rate expectations;
- Preliminary PMI indexes on Friday, August 21st. The focus is on employment and prices paid components — they will determine the balance of power at month-end;
- Retail sector earnings season. Results from giants Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s, Walmart, and Reddit's inclusion in the S&P 500 act as an indirect channel of influence through correlation with stock indices;
- Expectations for the Jackson Hole Symposium August 27-29. A half-empty calendar means movements will be driven not by statistics, but by capital positioning before Kevin Warsh's first speech as Fed Chair.
Summary
Paradoxically, the overall sentiment retains a positive tone. The current optimal strategy is staying out of the market for medium-term positions in heavy assets.
Under conditions where large capital is buying time, opening trades before a manipulative level break carries unjustified risk. Priority is given to intraday trading on lower timeframes in instruments with high volatility and strict risk control.
Dollar Index — Break of Key Supports, Movement Below 99.475, and Awaiting FOMC Minutes
Retrospective and Current Position
The past week dealt a serious technical blow to the positions of the American currency. While the release of expected inflation (CPI) data passed relatively calmly, the collapse in retail sales became the final trigger for sellers.
The Dollar Index (DXY) failed to hold the four-hour imbalance zone and impulsively broke through the previous support level.
Currently, DXY quotes have fallen to the 99.345 mark. The asset is trading below a key liquidity pool, opening the way to deeper inefficiency zones.
The market is transitioning into a positioning phase ahead of the Fed minutes publication and the approaching Jackson Hole symposium.
Technical Picture
The downward Order Flow received full confirmation after an aggressive consolidation below weekly lows. Key structural levels:
- PWH 100.083 — the updated high of the past week, acting as local resistance;
- PWL 99.475 — the previous weekly low, which was broken and now acts as the nearest mirror barrier;
- 4H FVG zones: below, price is attracted by two large unfilled imbalances — the first with an upper boundary around 99.000, the second located deeper in the 98.700 zone.
Current Trading Scenarios
Scenario A — V-Shaped Buyback and Return Above PWL (Short Squeeze)
The index uses the current dip below 99.475 as a manipulation, i.e., a deviation, to collect liquidity. Price finds aggressive limit demand, forms a sharp reversal, and returns above the broken 99.475 level, heading to fill the imbalances above.
Scenario B — Pullback-Free Descent to Lower FVG (Priority Bearish)
Sellers maintain full control. The Dollar Index does not receive a bounce from current levels of 99.345 and continues a measured downward move straight to the 4H FVG zone with an upper boundary at the 99.000 level.
Further DXY weakening in this format would create ideal fundamental conditions for the crypto market to rise.
Scenario C — Retest of Resistance and Continued Decline
Price forms a local technical pullback, testing the zone of the broken PWL level 99.475 from below upwards.
Receiving a firm rejection from sellers in this area, the asset reverses and continues its decline towards the 99.000 block.
News Triggers of the Week
- Wednesday, August 19, 17:30 — Crude oil inventories;
- Wednesday, August 19, 21:00 — FOMC minutes release. The key event of the week, capable of providing insights into sentiments within the Fed before the September meeting;
- Thursday, August 20, 15:30 — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for August;
- Thursday, August 20, 15:30 — Initial jobless claims;
- Friday, August 21, 15:30 — Preliminary Manufacturing PMI for August and Services PMI for August.
Sentiment and Tactics
The break of key support radically changes the medium-term balance of power. The market will carefully assess the details of the FOMC's backroom discussions on Wednesday evening.
Until then, chaotic manipulative movements on the thin August order book are possible.
Action plan: maintain focus on lower timeframes. For making trading decisions on crypto assets, it is critically important to see DXY's reaction — either an aggressive return above 99.475, which would be negative for risk assets, or a confident move towards pools at 99.000, which would fuel long positions.
Work systematically and control risks strictly.
