Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps says it has identified a network of connected wallets that profited from betting on military strikes involving Iran on the crypto prediction market Polymarket.
In a thread published on X, Bubblemaps said it traced funds between several Polymarket accounts that placed highly accurate bets on U.S. and Israeli strikes. This raises questions about whether traders may have had advance knowledge of geopolitical events.
The findings follow earlier reports that six wallets collectively earned about $1.2 million by betting that the United States would strike Iran on 28 February, with many of the positions reportedly opened only hours before the attack.
Wallet tracing links Polymarket accounts
According to Bubblemaps, a wallet identified as 0xa4eb, operating under the Polymarket username “nothingeverhappens911,” recently moved profits off the platform.
Tracing those funds led to another Polymarket account called “Skoobidoobnj,” with the connection established through a shared Binance deposit address.
The second account allegedly made about $100,000 betting “yes” shortly before two separate military developments involving Iran in 2025.
Those events included:
- 13 June 2025: Israel launched an operation targeting Iranian assets.
- 21 June 2025: The United States reportedly joined the conflict with strikes on nuclear facilities at Fordow.
Bubblemaps said the on-chain links suggest the accounts may be part of a broader cluster of traders using connected wallets.
Additional accounts identified
The analytics firm said the Polymarket account “Skoobidoobnj” is also linked on-chain to two additional accounts suspected of placing trades at similarly timed intervals.
According to Bubblemaps:
- One account allegedly earned about $65,000 betting on a U.S. strike on 28 February.
- Another reportedly made around $10,000 on predictions related to the 13 June Israeli strike.
In total, the firm said four connected Polymarket accounts generated about $240,000 from bets predicting U.S. and Israeli military actions involving Iran.
Earlier $1.2M betting activity raised scrutiny
The latest findings build on the earlier discovery that six recently funded wallets made roughly $1.2 million from the 28 February U.S. strike market.
Many of those wallets were reportedly funded within 24 hours of the event. They placed bets specifically on a strike occurring on that date.
The timing of the trades drew scrutiny from analysts and policymakers, with critics suggesting the activity could indicate traders acting on privileged information.
Prediction markets face growing attention
Crypto-based prediction platforms such as Polymarket allow users to trade on the likelihood of real-world events ranging from elections to geopolitical conflicts.
While supporters argue that prediction markets can aggregate information efficiently, critics warn that they may create incentives for trading on sensitive or nonpublic information.
The Bubblemaps findings add to the ongoing debate over whether blockchain analytics could help identify suspicious trading behavior in decentralized prediction markets.
Final Summary
- Bubblemaps says on-chain tracing linked several Polymarket accounts that profited from betting on U.S. and Israeli strikes involving Iran.
- The findings follow earlier reports that six wallets earned about $1.2M from bets predicting a 28 February U.S. strike on Iran.
