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The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has increased by $8k over the past 24 hours. The coin's price has risen above $72k for the first time since the beginning of summer. Other cryptocurrencies followed Bitcoin, with the total market capitalization increasing by 10%.
The reason for the growth was a combination of factors: the US Treasury's decision to double the volume of long-term government bond buybacks and the mention of cryptocurrencies by US President Donald Trump in his speech at an event at the White House.
Experts explained why Trump's words and the Treasury's actions had such an impact on the crypto market, whether this is a temporary surge or the beginning of a serious upward movement, and what can be expected from the Bitcoin price next.
"Growth Will Be Moderate"
Bitcoin has been trading in a very narrow range with minimal volatility since the beginning of July, and almost all negative factors were already priced in, said Nikita Bredikhin, lead investment analyst at Go Invest. According to him, in such conditions, even a small positive catalyst becomes a driver for growth and a breakout from consolidation.
The US Treasury will buy back part of the long-term debt, which will reduce pressure on bonds, lower their yields, and increase the attractiveness of risky assets, Bredikhin explained. This essentially makes money cheaper for the economy, lowers mortgage rates, facilitates corporate debt refinancing, and reduces the cost of capital. According to the expert, the ministry's decision acted as a fundamental factor for the growth of cryptocurrencies.
The emotional factor was Trump's meeting with representatives of the crypto industry and his demand that Congress quickly pass the CLARITY Act on the crypto market. Bredikhin noted that this is "an exclusively emotional factor," as the passage of this law does not significantly increase inflows into crypto assets as much as, for example, the appearance of spot cryptocurrency ETFs in 2024 did.
"The largest financial institutions are already adopting cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies; the legalization of this direction does not affect the entire industry so substantially, rather it affects individual sectors, such as stablecoins," the analyst believes.
Go Invest does not expect significant continuation of the growth, as most factors are still stacked against Bitcoin. Relatively high inflation in the US prevents the Fed from continuing the cycle of monetary policy easing, while the regulator's rhetoric and individual board members remain tough and hawkish, Bredikhin added.
He also noted that activity within cryptocurrency networks is at record low levels, as are the fees collected, which repels both investors and developers. In addition, high competition for capital with other asset classes, such as companies in the semiconductor or AI technology sectors, persists, the analyst reminded.
The Bitcoin price has hit a resistance level, and if this resistance is broken, Bitcoin could rise to $76-80k, the analyst believes. However, according to him, it is more likely that the growth will be moderate and local, and the long-term downward trend will continue.
"The Main Thing is Not in Trump's Rhetoric"
The high yield of American bonds has long been a serious competitor to cryptocurrencies, so its decrease due to the Treasury's buyback improves the overall backdrop for Bitcoin, agreed Vagiz Nurullov, managing partner at VG GROUP. He also noted that while Trump's comments at the evening event at the White House influenced the price, they alone are unlikely to change the trend for long.
Nurullov noted another positive factor - new SEC proposals for regulating the crypto market. The regulator is discussing a softer regime for certain token offerings, including benefits, exemptions from the standard registration procedure, and other conditions favorable to the crypto market. This is already a long-term positive, as clearer rules can reduce regulatory risk and increase institutional interest in the sector, the expert says.
Therefore, yesterday's movement looks more serious than a usual pump based on Trump's words, Nurullov believes. He noted that part of the growth was amplified by a massive short squeeze, so a correction after such an impulse is quite natural.
Over the past 24 hours, positions worth $3.4 billion have been liquidated on crypto exchanges. Of these, short positions accounted for $3.1 billion, according to Coinglass.
The key zone now remains $69-70k, and if Bitcoin consolidates above it, the next resistance will be in the $71.5-72k area, Nurullov predicts. He added that a breakout of this area could open the way to $75-78k, and if a strong risk-on scenario persists - even to $80-82k.
According to the expert's estimates, in case of a correction, the first range is $66-67k, while even a pullback to $64-65k would not break the bullish scenario for now.
In his assessment, the base scenario currently remains moderately positive. He clarified that the growth that began on August 19th was an important signal of improving sentiment, but the market will only receive full confirmation of a new upward movement after consolidating above the levels reached.
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