Bitcoin Holds Firm at $64K, Polymarket Lowers CLARITY Act Launch Odds to 15%

On Wednesday, Bitcoin stubbornly held above the $64,000 mark, although the overall bullish momentum remained subdued against the backdrop of escalating political disputes surrounding the upcoming vote on the CLARITY Act. Despite a sharp spike in daily volatility, market data indicates that the leading cryptocurrency still managed to carve out a slight upward trajectory compared to the August 4 consolidation range of $63,000 to $63,600.

Market data shows that although the price dipped below the $64,000 level several times during the session, it quickly bounced back, indicating strong buying pressure. However, the familiar resistance ceiling reappeared: every rally was halted as soon as Bitcoin surpassed the $64,400 mark.

This pattern persisted until 8:30 AM Eastern Standard Time (EST), when the price fell from $64,466 to a daily low of $63,900 in just over an hour. A sharp rebound offset the drop and lifted Bitcoin to a peak of $64,706. As of 12:53 PM EST, Bitcoin was trading slightly below $64,600—a 1.1% daily increase that raised its market capitalization to nearly $1.3 trillion.

For the second consecutive day, even modest gains proved devastating for short sellers. Coinglass data shows that out of nearly $52 million in leveraged Bitcoin positions liquidated, short positions accounted for $45 million. Across the broader cryptocurrency market, total liquidations amounted to approximately $216 million, with short positions making up $148 million of that total.

Analysts view the CLARITY Act as a key catalyst for Bitcoin's rise this year. However, with less than 48 hours remaining before the start of the parliamentary recess, the likelihood of its passage by the fragmented U.S. Senate appears increasingly slim. Reports emerging late Tuesday indicated that Senate Majority Leader John Thune planned to file a cloture motion, although later reports noted that Democratic senators intended to block this move. Ultimately, the CLARITY Act was completely omitted from the Senate's agenda for August 5, highlighting the lack of bipartisan consensus.

Nevertheless, staunch supporters refuse to consider the initiative a failure. Coinbase Vice President Ryan VanGrack emphasized that failing during the current legislative session does not mean the end of the bill, pointing to September as a realistic second chance for its passage. Supporting this stance, Senator Cynthia Lummis, one of the bill's main legislative sponsors, maintained an optimistic outlook regarding its ultimate fate—although she acknowledged that the high-stakes negotiations were likely to extend through the weekend.

Prediction markets are far less optimistic. Polymarket users are currently pricing the odds of the CLARITY Act coming into force this year at just 15%, down 12 percentage points from Monday's 27%.