Over the past weekend, the crypto market did not see a sentiment recovery. After several days of narrow-range fluctuations, Bitcoin came under significant pressure from Sunday evening through Monday's U.S. stock market session, falling below the key $90,000 level and briefly touching around $86,000 at its lowest point. ETH dropped 3.4% to $2,980; BNB fell 2.1%; XRP declined 4%; SOL decreased 1.5%, retreating to around $126. Among the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap, only TRX recorded a slight gain of less than 1%, while the rest were in a correction phase.

From a time perspective, this is not an isolated adjustment. Since hitting a new all-time high in mid-October, Bitcoin has accumulated a pullback of over 30%, with each rebound appearing brief and hesitant. Although ETF funds have not seen systematic outflows, marginal inflows have noticeably slowed, making it difficult to provide the "sentiment foundation" for the market as before. The crypto market is transitioning from one-sided optimism to a more complex and patience-testing phase.

Against this backdrop, Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, released a latest report, placing Bitcoin's current trend within a broader macro and cyclical framework and presenting a highly unsettling judgment: Bitcoin is very likely to fall back to $10,000 by 2026. This is not alarmist but one potential outcome under a special "deflationary" cycle.

The reason this view has sparked significant controversy is not just because the figure itself is "too low," but because McGlone does not treat Bitcoin as an independent crypto asset. Instead, he re-examines it within the long-term coordinate system of "global risk assets—liquidity—wealth regression."

"Deflation After Inflation"? McGlone Focuses Not on Crypto but on the Cycle Inflection Point

To understand McGlone's judgment, the key lies not in how he views the crypto industry but in how he interprets the next phase of the macro environment.

In his latest views, McGlone repeatedly emphasizes a concept: Inflation/Deflation Inflection. In his view, global markets are near such a critical juncture. As inflation peaks in major economies and growth momentum slows, asset pricing logic is shifting from "fighting inflation" to coping with "deflation after inflation"—the phase of overall price declines after the inflation cycle ends. He writes: "Bitcoin's decline may resemble the stock market's reaction to Fed policy in 2007."

This is not the first time he has issued a bearish warning. As early as last November, he predicted Bitcoin would fall to the $50,000 mark.

He points out that by around 2026, commodity prices may fluctuate around a key pivot—the "inflation-deflation demarcation line" for core commodities like natural gas, corn, and copper could settle near $5. Among these, only copper, with its real industrial demand support, might still be above this pivot by the end of 2025.

McGlone notes: When liquidity recedes, the market will重新区分 "real demand" and "financialization premium." In his framework, Bitcoin is not "digital gold" but an asset highly correlated with risk appetite and speculative cycles. When the inflation narrative fades and macro liquidity tightens, Bitcoin tends to reflect this change earlier and more sharply.

In McGlone's view, his logic is not based on a single technical level but the叠加 of three long-term paths.

First, mean reversion after extreme wealth creation. McGlone has long emphasized that Bitcoin is one of the most extreme wealth amplifiers of the past decade-plus of宽松 monetary environment. When asset price growth长期 outstrips实体经济和 cash flow growth, the regression is often not gentle but violent. Historically, whether it was the 1929 U.S. stock market or the 2000 tech bubble, the commonality of the top phase was: the market repeatedly sought a "new paradigm" at highs, and the eventual adjustment幅度, in hindsight, often far exceeded the most pessimistic expectations at the time.

Second, the relative pricing relationship between Bitcoin and gold. McGlone特别强调 the Bitcoin/Gold ratio. This ratio was about 10x at the end of 2022, then expanded rapidly driven by the bull market, reaching over 30x in 2025. But this year, the ratio has fallen about 40%, dropping to around 21x. In his view, if deflationary pressures persist and gold remains firm due to safe-haven demand, it is not an激进假设 for the ratio to further return to its historical range.

Third, systemic issues in the supply environment of speculative assets. Although Bitcoin itself has a clear total supply cap, McGlone has多次指出 that what the market is truly trading is not Bitcoin's "uniqueness" but the risk premium of the entire crypto ecosystem. When millions of tokens, projects, and narratives compete for the same risk budget, the entire sector tends to be uniformly discounted in a deflationary cycle, and Bitcoin can hardly完全脱离 this revaluation process.

It should be noted that Mike McGlone is not a bull/bear spokesperson for the crypto market. As a Bloomberg senior commodity strategist, he has long studied the cyclical relationships between crude oil, precious metals, agricultural products, interest rates, and risk assets. His predictions are not always precisely timed, but their value lies in: he often raises structural contrarian questions when market sentiment is most consensus-driven.

In his latest remarks, he also主动复盘 his "errors," including underestimating the timing of gold breaking through $2,000 and misjudging the节奏 of U.S. Treasury yields and U.S. stocks. But in his view, these deviations repeatedly confirm one point: the market is most prone to illusions about trends before cyclical inflection points.

Other Voices: Divergence Is Widening

Of course, McGlone's judgment is not market consensus. In fact, mainstream institutions' attitudes show clear分化.

Traditional financial institutions like Standard Chartered have recently significantly lowered their medium-to-long-term Bitcoin target prices, reducing the 2025 expectation from $200,000 to about $100,000, and also adjusting the 2026 imagination from $300,000 to around $150,000. In other words, institutions no longer assume that ETFs and corporate allocations will provide marginal buying at any price range持续.

Glassnode's research points out that Bitcoin's current consolidation range between $80,000 and $90,000 has put pressure on the market, with intensity comparable to the end of January 2022. The market's relative unrealized loss has approached 10% of市值. Analysts further explain that such market dynamics reflect a state of "liquidity-constrained, sensitive to macro shocks," but it has not yet reached the level of atypical bear market彻底抛售 (panic selling).

More quantitative and structure-focused 10x Research offers a more direct conclusion: they believe Bitcoin has entered the early stages of a bear market, with on-chain indicators, fund flows, and market structure all indicating that the downward cycle has not yet reached its end.

From a broader time dimension, the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin is no longer just an issue for the crypto market itself but is firmly embedded in the global macro cycle. The coming week is seen by many strategists as the most critical macro window period of the year-end—the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan will announce interest rate decisions successively, while the U.S. will迎来 a series of delayed employment and inflation data, providing a belated "reality check" for the market.

The Fed's FOMC meeting on December 10 had already sent an unusual signal: not only did it cut rates by 25 basis points, but there were also three dissenting votes, and Powell直言 that job growth in previous months might have been overestimated. This week's密集 macro data will reshape the market's core expectations for 2026—whether the Fed can continue to cut rates or will have to press pause for a longer period. For risk assets, this answer may be more important than any single asset's bull-bear debate.